Search Climate Insights Directory

The document details a rolling-window ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model used to analyze the impact of climate extremes on UK lamb prices. It finds that both short-term drought (6-month window) and prolonged wet conditions (12-month window) drive prices up, while a 'pork falsification test' confirms this mechanism is specific to grass-fed lamb. Robustness checks, including CPI deflation and out-of-sample prediction, support the validity of the climate transmission signal. The analysis specifically isolates a 'drought premium' of 92p/kg farmgate for the 2025 drought and notes that the hay market's sensitivity to rainfall anomalies has strengthened over time.

In January 2026, severe wildfires affected central-southern Chile and northern Patagonia in Argentina, driven by temperatures above 38°C, drought, and winds of 40–50 km/h. The fires destroyed at least 1,000 homes in Chile, killed 23 people, and burned over 109,000 hectares across both countries, impacting the UNESCO world heritage site Los Alerces National Park. An attribution study using the hot-dry-windy index (HDWI) found that these conditions, typically 1-in-5-year events, were made more likely by human-induced climate change by a factor of approximately 3 in Chile and 2.5 in Patagonia. Additionally, fire-season rainfall intensity decreased by about 25% in Chile and 20% in Patagonia. The study highlights that nonnative monocultural pine plantations increased flammability and that natural variability, such as La Niña and the Southern Annular Mode, further enhanced the hot and dry conditions.

The guide outlines best practices for covering wildfires, advising journalists on physical safety, the distinction between climate-driven conditions and ignition sources, and the importance of reporting on vulnerable populations and adaptation measures. It notes that while direct attribution of a single fire to climate change is difficult, global warming increases the frequency and intensity of disasters through higher temperatures and prolonged droughts.

February 2026 was the fifth-warmest month globally on record, with the contiguous U.S. experiencing its second-warmest winter in 132 years. A critical 'snow drought' affected the western U.S., where snow-covered areas in January were only 34% of normal, threatening water supplies for agriculture and energy. Climate Central's analysis indicates that human-driven climate change significantly influenced winter temperatures, particularly in the Southwest, and is the primary cause of spring warming in 98% of 241 examined U.S. cities.

The report finds that a majority of Americans believe global warming is happening and is primarily human-caused, though many underestimate the level of public concern. While most perceive global warming as affecting U.S. weather and extreme events, few discuss the topic frequently with others.

In 2025, the U.S. experienced 23 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters costing $115 billion, ranking it the third-highest year on record. The year was dominated by a record 21 billion-dollar severe storm events and the costliest wildfire in U.S. history, the Los Angeles wildfires. Since 1980, the frequency of such disasters has surged, with the average time between events dropping from 82 days in the 1980s to just 10 days in 2025.

January 2026 was the fifth-warmest January on record globally, characterized by significant temperature anomalies in the U.S. West and record-low snowpacks in several states. The document highlights the transition of NOAA to the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) to better account for climate change in ENSO tracking. Attribution analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) indicates that extreme warmth in the northern U.S. and specific cities like San Juan and Honolulu was strongly driven by carbon pollution.

Connecticut is experiencing accelerating climate risks, including more frequent extreme precipitation, rising sea levels, and increasing temperatures. The report details specific historical damages, such as a $300 million storm in August 2024 and $21 million in agricultural losses in July 2023. It projects significant future costs, including $5.3 billion for seawalls by 2040 and a 400% increase in days over 90 in Connecticut by 2050. The document provides comprehensive lists of potential adaptation costs across infrastructure, public health, and individual expenses to mitigate these hazards.

The report highlights severe education deficits in the Horn of Africa, where conflict, gender inequality, and poor infrastructure hinder progress. It projects that by 2040, average years of education for adults will remain significantly lower than both the African and global averages, with primary school enrolment acting as a critical bottleneck for most countries except Ethiopia.

This policy brief argues that water and sanitation are strategic assets essential for Africa's peace, energy transition, and food security. It advocates for a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach and Strategic Asset Management (SAM) to address a $1 trillion infrastructure investment gap by 2040 and mitigate the 'threat multiplier' effect of climate change. The brief recommends integrating water governance into the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and strengthening transboundary cooperation across the continent's 63 shared river and lake basins to prevent conflict and promote regional stability.

The report analyzes 22 extreme weather events in 2025, noting that despite weak La Nina conditions, global temperatures remained exceptionally high due to human-driven emissions. It emphasizes that warming of approximately 1.3°C has intensified heatwaves, droughts, and floods, with a specific focus on how women and marginalized groups bear a disproportionate burden. The document also identifies a critical gap in climate science, where a lack of observational data in the Global South hinders confident analysis of rainfall events. Finally, it argues that while adaptation is necessary, events like Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean demonstrate that adaptation has limits and cannot replace the urgent need for rapid emission reductions.

Climate change is driving global wine production to historic lows, with sparkling wine facing specific threats to its quantity and quality. Extreme weather in France, Spain, and Italy has led to reduced yields and price increases for labels like Cava and Prosecco. Higher temperatures are accelerating ripening, which alters the balance of sugar and acid, potentially resulting in higher alcohol levels and less fizzy wines. Projections suggest that if global temperatures rise by 2°C, over half of suitable wine-growing regions could shrink, with up to 90% of traditional areas in southern Europe becoming economically unviable. Adaptation strategies, such as relocating vineyards or using protective technology, are costly and may fail to preserve the unique cultural and flavour characteristics of traditional sparkling wines.

Colorado is experiencing a rise in billion-dollar climate disasters, with an increase from 1.7 annually since 1980 to 4.4 per year between 2020 and 2024. The state faces critical threats from wildfires, flooding, avalanches, and drought, which impact public health, infrastructure, and the economy. Federal agencies including NOAA and FEMA provide essential forecasting, research, and funding for mitigation, such as the $13.8 million BRIC grant for the Greely Water Pipeline. However, proposed FY26 budget cuts and the cancellation of programs like BRIC threaten to shutter research labs in Boulder, eliminate cooperative university partnerships, and reduce funding for climate-smart agriculture and critical mineral surveys, potentially increasing the vulnerability of both local communities and military installations such as Buckley Space Force Base and Fort Carson.

Washington State faces escalating risks from drought, wildfires, extreme heat, and coastal flooding, which threaten its economy, ecosystems, and critical US military installations. While federal agencies like NOAA and FEMA provide essential forecasting, funding, and disaster recovery services, the report argues that recent and proposed budget cuts for FY2026—including the termination of key research laboratories and the reduction of grant programs—significantly degrade the state's capacity to prepare for and respond to these hazards.

Hawaiʻi faces significant economic and security risks from sea level rise, wildfires, and drought, which threaten both civilian infrastructure and critical US military hubs like Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam. While federal agencies provide essential monitoring and recovery support, proposed FY 2026 budget cuts would eliminate key programs such as the Hawaiʻi Sea Grant and the Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center, potentially reducing disaster relief and hindering climate adaptation efforts.

In 2025, the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth-warmest year on record and 23 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, totaling $115 billion in damages. Globally, 2025 was the third-warmest year since 1850, with NOAA data indicating it was approximately 1.3°C warmer than the pre-industrial average. The year was marked by record-breaking December heat in the U.S. Southwest and devastating atmospheric river flooding in Washington and Oregon.

The document reports that November 2025 was the third warmest on record globally and the fourth warmest for the contiguous U.S. It highlights a long-term trend of warming winters in the U.S., where the coldest day of the year has warmed by approximately 7°F since 1970. The briefing also notes significant regional anomalies, such as extreme warmth in Texas and heavy rainfall in southern California, while discussing the ongoing La Niña advisory and its expected impacts on weather patterns through early 2026.

The document outlines how human-caused climate change affects different weather phenomena. It states that extreme heat, marine heat waves, and the intensity of heavy rain and hurricanes are increasing, while extreme cold is becoming less likely. It notes that while climate change increases hot, dry conditions contributing to droughts and wildfires, other factors like land use also play a role. For localized severe storms, the document explains that current climate models cannot yet accurately simulate specific events to make direct attribution statements.

A super-rapid attribution study by World Weather Attribution finds that human-induced climate change has significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of a five-year drought in Iran and the Tigris-Euphrates basin. The analysis shows that while low-rainfall years are natural to the region, the current 'extreme' to 'exceptional' drought conditions would have been very rare in a pre-industrial climate. The study highlights that warming increases evaporative demand, prolonging droughts and compounding the effects of socio-economic stressors like unsustainable groundwater extraction and water-intensive agriculture.

The PrAda 2+ project is a six-year initiative designed to adapt agricultural value chains in Madagascar to climate change, specifically targeting the coffee, clove, peanut, pepper, and vanilla sectors. With a total budget of 61,338,446.72 Euros (including 43,623,766.13 Euros from the Green Climate Fund), the project aims to benefit 314,800 direct and 2,650,000 indirect beneficiaries across the regions of Androy, Anosy, Atsimo-Atsinanana, Vatovavy, Fitovinany, and Atsinanana. The project focuses on three main components: implementing climate-resilient agriculture (CRA) technologies, expanding financial services for CRA investments through the Agricultural Development Fund (FDA), and improving the entrepreneurial and institutional environment for agricultural services. Key interventions include the dissemination of tailored agrometeorological information, the promotion of climate-resilient crop varieties, and the establishment of Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs).