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The paper challenges the finding that warming is robustly linked to civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa by replicating and testing the model used by Burke et al. (2009). Through influence diagnostics, alternative operationalizations of civil war, and expanded sample periods, the authors find that the reported positive effect of temperature is tenuous and often disappears. The analysis suggests that the original results were driven by a few influential observations involving foreign intervention and that climate variables provide negligible predictive power compared to country-specific fixed effects and time trends.

The report argues that AWM interventions often fail to capture holistic impacts beyond direct project boundaries, frequently overlooking negative externalities and socio-economic shifts. To address this, the authors propose a synthesised M&E framework based on five livelihood capitals: financial, human, natural, physical, and social. The document emphasizes the necessity of baseline assessments, participatory M&E, and the inclusion of both project-level and impact-level indicators to facilitate adaptive management. It applies this framework to review the M&E practices of International Development Enterprises (IDE) and IDE-India, and demonstrates its use in a baseline assessment in the Mkindo watershed of Tanzania.

The project introduced soybean producers in eastern Paraguay and southern Brazil to seasonal climate forecasts and a crop growth model to evaluate adaptive management options, such as varying planting dates and soybean varieties, under different El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios. To ensure the delivery of trustable, science-based information, the project collaborated with local cooperatives, three of which funded weather stations. The resulting decision support tools for yield and climate risks were adapted for Paraguay and planned for Rio Grande do Sul, utilizing a probabilistic approach to climate forecasts and a web-based information system.

The project investigates how climate variability and land use changes affect irrigated agriculture, specifically examining the Rio Segundo basin in Argentina and the Maipo river basin in Chile. Findings indicate that in Rio Segundo, agricultural expansion was driven by globalization and increased rainfall, with soy bean area growing nearly 18 times. In the Maipo river basin, analysis suggests that permanent water rights could fail to meet increased demand under global warming in 40-50% of cases, compared to a current failure rate of 6-20%.

The author contends that existing reactive decision-making frameworks are insufficient for climate change adaptation, which involves both frequent climatic hazards and slow-onset risks. He advocates for a shift from disaster management to disaster preparedness, citing Bangladesh's success in reducing cyclone fatalities as a model. The paper emphasizes that adaptation will require science-oriented approaches, increased climate literacy, and a global responsibility to manage planned relocation for communities in uninhabitable areas. Finally, it suggests that rich countries can learn from the participatory and institutional experiences of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and community-based adaptation initiatives.

The report identifies five critical elements for effective climate adaptation decision-making: public engagement, decision-relevant information, institutional design, planning tools, and resources. It argues that governments must move from reactive disaster relief to proactive risk management, accounting for extremes, heightened variability, and long-term change. The document emphasizes that vulnerability—shaped by social, economic, and geographic factors—determines the impact of climate change, necessitating targeted interventions for the most disadvantaged. Through various case studies and research, it recommends integrating climate risks into existing sectoral policies and utilizing flexible, robust, and durable decision-making frameworks to manage uncertainty.

The document reports that pastoral communities in Ethiopia's Borana and Somali zones are facing unprecedented climate variability, including increasing temperatures and drought frequency, which are rendering traditional coping strategies ineffective. It identifies significant barriers to adaptation, such as land degradation, resource conflicts, and limited access to information and financial services. The brief recommends that the Ethiopian government protect pastoral land, improve weather information sharing, and enhance social safety nets. It advises civil society to integrate climate projections into programming and leverage traditional knowledge, while urging international donors to provide funding flexibility for climate emergencies.

The report argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Africa, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities such as poverty and poor governance to potentially trigger violent conflict. It identifies four primary areas of concern: increased water scarcity, decreased food security, large-scale climate-induced migration, and the erosion of state fragility. While acknowledging that environmental stress is rarely the sole cause of war, the document highlights how shifts in precipitation and temperature can intensify competition over resources and destabilize fragile states. The authors propose four strategies to mitigate these risks: improving climate projections, reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, implementing conflict-sensitive adaptation policies, and integrating climate risks into all levels of governance.

The report examines the weather-related stresses faced by farmers in Manitoba, specifically in the southwest corner and around Riding Mountain, between 1999 and 2005. It identifies a prevalence of short-term coping strategies over long-term adaptation due to financial constraints and uncertainty. The findings highlight that while farmers rely on experience and networking, they are hindered by regulations, costs, and the increasing unpredictability of extreme weather events.

The document presents a method for analysing water-related poverty by integrating the Sustainable Livelihoods (SL) framework with Bayesian networks (BNs). This approach addresses the 'fuzziness' of livelihood systems—caused by variability, diversity, and uncertainty—by using probability distributions rather than fixed values. The authors introduce a novel way to represent institutions as 'categorical inequality' (e.g., gender) and a 'latent variable' method where indicators serve as indirect evidence for assets rather than direct proxies. The model was applied to data from Si Sa Ket province in Northeast Thailand, demonstrating that locally-originated water supply schemes, such as water tanks and drill wells, can be more effective for poor households than unreliable large-scale irrigation projects.

The research examines how agricultural decision-making and adaptation strategies to climate variability are socially differentiated within a communal irrigation scheme in South Africa's Vhembe District. Findings indicate that community responses to climate stress are heterogeneous, with varying objectives and priorities, necessitating policy interventions that support diverse responses and integrate adaptation measures with local development pathways to ensure sustainability.

The document describes a scoping phase (January to November 2008) for a programme aimed at building long-term capacity in universities, research institutes, government, industry, and NGOs to manage climate change risks. The initiative focuses on developing research capacity, enhancing science-technology-policy networks, and stimulating science-policy dialogue to integrate climate risk management into national development policies. Proposed activities include forming national advisory groups, providing short courses on adaptation and vulnerability, hosting international experts, developing curricula, and establishing joint research fellowships. The programme is designed to support the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Nairobi Work Programme and National Adaptation Programmes of Action.

The report finds that while PRSPs acknowledge vulnerability, they often treat it as a static dimension of poverty rather than a dynamic process. There is a significant gap between the acknowledgement of vulnerability and the implementation of specific, targeted reduction measures, with a tendency to overemphasize exposure over sensitivity and resilience.

The IAI is managing the closure of its CRN I program and the implementation of CRN II and Small Grants Program for Human Dimensions (SGP-HD), while seeking new funding from the MacArthur Foundation and IDRC. The institute is expanding its regional network through collaborations with entities like IGBP, IUCN, and CEPAL, and is focusing on capacity building through research internships and specialized training institutes on climate risk, water management, and urban responses. Efforts to secure operational budget contributions from member countries like Guatemala and Uruguay are ongoing.

The IAI's 2007-2008 program focuses on implementing the human dimensions program (SGP-HD), expanding the CRN II network with climate and ocean linkages, and pursuing funding for Andean biodiversity and rural development. Key operational goals include developing a Strategic Plan, organizing a colloquium with NCAR, and conducting training on river use in semi-arid regions of Brazil.

The External Review Committee (ERC) found that the IAI produces high-quality natural science and has successfully built scientific capacity across the Americas. However, it struggles to translate science into policy action, suffers from a narrow funding base heavily dependent on the United States, and lacks a comprehensive communication strategy and long-term strategic plan.

The IAI Directorate report for 2006-2007 outlines the institute's efforts to integrate global change science with policy, specifically focusing on land-use change in the La Plata Basin and the impacts of biofuels. The report highlights the implementation of Collaborative Research Networks (CRN I and II), the success of Training Institute Seed Grants (TISG) in fostering multidisciplinary networks across 19 countries, and new strategic partnerships with organizations like IDRC, NCAR, and the Asia-Pacific Network. It also details capacity-building efforts through summer schools and internships, and fundraising initiatives targeting the MacArthur Foundation for biodiversity research in the Andes.

The IAI Executive Directorate report for 2006-2007 details the institute's efforts to integrate climate science with policy, specifically focusing on land-use change in the Plata Basin and urbanisation in Latin America. It highlights the transition from the CRN I to CRN II research networks, the success of the Training Institute Seed Grants (TISG) in fostering multidisciplinary networks across 19 countries, and new strategic partnerships with organizations like IDRC, SCOPE, and the MacArthur Foundation to address biodiversity in the Andes.

The report details a workshop where 40 participants discussed a variety of climate adaptation tools, ranging from information databases to computer-based decision tools and qualitative risk management processes. It identifies a general trend of integrating climate impacts as additional stressors into existing decision-making structures and highlights a gap in tools targeting the middle ground between grassroots communities and senior officials. The document also lists specific tools such as PRECIS, CRiSTAL, and ADAPT, comparing their audiences, spatial scales, and data types.

The research establishes a methodology to measure the adaptive capacity of 53 Census Divisions in the Canadian Prairies, organizing 20 indicators into six determinants: economic resources, technology, information/skills/management, infrastructure, institutions/networks, and equity. The analysis reveals that adaptive capacity is strongly correlated with proximity to major urban centres, with the highest capacity clustered around Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, and Calgary, while the lowest capacity is found along the northern boundaries of the agricultural region. The study argues that while some low-capacity areas are currently north of historic drought zones, future climate projections suggest moisture deficits may extend into these vulnerable regions. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for interventions in remote rural areas, such as improving high-speed Internet access, promoting sustainable soil management, and ensuring fair commodity prices.