Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada

The research establishes a methodology to measure the adaptive capacity of 53 Census Divisions in the Canadian Prairies, organizing 20 indicators into six determinants: economic resources, technology, information/skills/management, infrastructure, institutions/networks, and equity. The analysis reveals that adaptive capacity is strongly correlated with proximity to major urban centres, with the highest capacity clustered around Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, and Calgary, while the lowest capacity is found along the northern boundaries of the agricultural region. The study argues that while some low-capacity areas are currently north of historic drought zones, future climate projections suggest moisture deficits may extend into these vulnerable regions. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for interventions in remote rural areas, such as improving high-speed Internet access, promoting sustainable soil management, and ensuring fair commodity prices.

• Adaptive capacity in the Prairie region is strongly linked to urban proximity, with the highest-ranking Census Divisions clustered in three main corridors: Winnipeg extending west to Brandon and south to the US border; Saskatoon extending south to Regina; and Calgary extending southeast to the US border.
• The lowest adaptive capacity is typically found along the northern boundaries of the Prairie agricultural region, though some areas in southwest and southeast Saskatchewan also rank low.
• High adaptive capacity is associated with specific socio-economic and technological factors, including higher off-farm earnings, diverse employment opportunities, increased use of computer technology in farm management, denser transportation networks, and closer proximity to agricultural education institutions.
• While current low-capacity areas are generally north of historic drought-stressed zones, global climate model projections indicate that moisture deficits in the central Prairies could increase and extend further north into these low-capacity regions over the longer term.
• The study identified significant data gaps that hindered the understanding of certain adaptive capacity determinants, specifically regarding the distribution of wealth (equity), the extent of surface and groundwater resources (infrastructure), and social capital (institutions and networks).
• To build adaptive capacity in remote rural areas, the authors suggest policy interventions that are not highly correlated with urban proximity, such as ensuring fair agricultural commodity prices, promoting sustainable soil management, discouraging farming on marginal land, and investing in versatile farm machinery.
• The 2001–2002 drought in the Canadian agricultural sector resulted in losses of CDN$3.6 billion in agricultural productivity and $5.8 billion in gross domestic product, leading to the loss of 41,000 jobs.

APA

Swanson, D., Hiley, J., Venema, H. D., & Grosshans, R. (2007). Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_adaptive_cap.pdf

Chicago

Swanson, Darren, Jim Hiley, Henry David Venema, and Richard Grosshans. Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2007. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_adaptive_cap.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Swanson |first1=Darren |last2=Hiley |first2=Jim |last3=Venema |first3=Henry David |last4=Grosshans |first4=Richard |title=Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=2007 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_adaptive_cap.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{swanson2007indicators, author = {Swanson, Darren and Hiley, Jim and Venema, Henry David and Grosshans, Richard}, title = {{Indicators of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Region of Canada}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2007}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_adaptive_cap.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }