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The ADVANCE Approach is a partnership between the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR) designed to move away from short-term consultant-based climate science engagement. It employs a seven-step co-generation process—analyzing context, developing learning questions, gathering data, obtaining feedback, revising information, providing integration guidance, and evaluating outcomes—to ensure climate risk data is fit-for-purpose and usable for local decision-makers. The approach focuses on identifying specific climate thresholds and variables relevant to stakeholders, such as maximum temperature in tropical regions or upland precipitation for mangrove conservation, and builds local capacity to interpret and apply this information to build resilience.

The report examines climate variability and projections for Kampala, finding that while annual rainfall has remained stable, temperatures rose by approximately 1ºC between 1979 and 2005. Future projections suggest temperature increases of 1.5ºC (RCP 4.5) to 3ºC (RCP 8.5) by 2095. The study highlights that flooding is the most significant climate impact, exacerbated by the encroachment of human settlements into wetlands and poor urban drainage. Economic estimates indicate that annual flood damages could rise from US$1.3–7.3 million in 2013 to US$33.2–101.7 million by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. The cost of climate-proofing buildings and roads between 2015 and 2050 is estimated at US$3.2 billion (RCP 4.5) to US$3.7 billion (RCP 8.5), with residential buildings accounting for 72% of these costs. A cost-benefit analysis of drainage improvements in four catchments showed mixed results, with only two projects yielding a positive net present value. The report recommends revising building codes and the Kampala Physical Development Plan, strengthening the enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessments to protect wetlands, and integrating informality into climate resilience strategies.

A pilot study in Malawi reveals that while short-term weather and seasonal forecasts are used, medium- to long-term climate projections (5–40 years) are not currently integrated into national policy or planning. Barriers include inappropriate spatial and temporal scales of data, technical jargon, and policy cycles that are too short to accommodate long-term climate horizons. However, there is significant opportunity to incorporate climate projections into Malawi's long-term development visions and economic modelling to prioritise resilient investments.

The document reports on a pilot study investigating how climate information is integrated into Rwandan policy. It finds that while current policies address immediate climate variability, there is a significant gap in the use of quantitative long-term projections. The study identifies land use and green city planning as high-potential areas for such data, while noting that barriers include a lack of technical capacity, short decision windows, and a tendency to omit model uncertainty in favor of qualitative narratives.

The FCFA Zambia pilot study found that climate information is not currently used for long-term planning or infrastructure decisions in Zambia. While there is high demand for high-resolution projections, decision-makers often overlook the associated uncertainty. The brief recommends investing in 'adaptation ready' science, creating institutional incentives for collaboration between scientists and planners, and adopting interactive engagement methods like gamification to build trust and improve data flow. It also advocates for open data systems to break down departmental silos and the implementation of forecast-based financing to trigger early action before climate disasters occur.

The report details an action research programme in Gorakhpur, India, aimed at incorporating climate change projections and vulnerability analysis into local disaster management planning. It highlights the use of 'Shared Learning Dialogues' and the Climate Resilience Framework to bridge gaps between national policy and local implementation, resulting in a climate-sensitive DDMP and state-level government orders to integrate disaster risk reduction into annual development plans.

The report analyzes 59 tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to project the impact of sea level rise on tidal flooding. Using an Intermediate-High scenario from the National Climate Assessment, the analysis finds that at least 40 locations will see a doubling of coastal flooding events by 2030, with the majority experiencing a 10-fold increase by 2045. Additionally, nearly half of the evaluated locations are projected to experience moderate coastal floods by 2045 from tides that currently only cause minor flooding.

The document describes a programme in Gorakhpur, India, aimed at integrating climate change concerns into disaster management planning. It highlights the use of India's Disaster Management Act (2005) and a 'Shared Learning process' using a Climate Resilience Framework to build the capacity of district departments to respond to climate risks, particularly in a region where flood intensity and frequency have increased over the last century.

The document describes a CDKN-START programme that successfully transitioned Gorakhpur's District Disaster Management Plan from a coordination-focused document to a climate-sensitive plan. This was achieved using the 'Shared Learning Dialogue' (SLD) process and the Climate Resilience Framework to bridge gaps in technical capacity and inter-departmental coordination. Key achievements include the use of simplified extreme event analysis over standard regional models to increase government buy-in and the establishment of a mandate for integrating disaster risk reduction into annual development plans.

The document outlines a qualitative participatory scenario development (PSD) approach used to help stakeholders in developing countries anticipate climate change consequences and identify robust adaptation pathways. By combining backcasting—working backward from a desired future—with the introduction of climate and socioeconomic boundary conditions, the process identifies integrated 'hard' (infrastructure) and 'soft' (governance and training) adaptation measures. Key findings emphasize that place-based discussions bridge the gap between abstract global climate models and local policy needs, and that adaptation must be integrated with broader socioeconomic development to be credible and pro-poor. The authors highlight challenges including the cognitive difficulty of imagining long-term futures and the necessity of local collaboration to ensure ownership and relevance.

The document outlines an eight-step process for integrating scientific climate data into adaptation planning, emphasizing that adaptation is a socio-institutional learning process rather than a purely technical exercise. It demonstrates this workflow through a case study in the Philippi suburb of Cape Town, where climate data is used to evaluate the trade-offs between maintaining vegetable production and rezoning land for low-cost housing. The guide highlights the importance of using both historical observations and future projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) to inform decisions on flood risk and heat stress.

Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate risks, particularly droughts and floods, which create a long-term fiscal liability estimated at 2.0 to 2.4 per cent of GDP annually. The report identifies critical dependencies in the agricultural, water, and energy sectors, noting that 98 per cent of crop production is rain-fed and over half of electricity is generated by hydropower. While the government has established frameworks like Vision 2030 and the National Climate Change Response Strategy, the report finds that disaster risk management remains largely reactive and uncoordinated, with significant capacity gaps at the subnational level. It recommends deeper research into sector-specific vulnerabilities, the 'climate proofing' of infrastructure and budgets, and the integration of gender-disaggregated data into planning.

The research examines the impact of climate variability on Ethiopia's agricultural production and GDP to identify ways to mainstream climate risks into poverty reduction plans. It highlights a case study on drought insurance within a social protection programme serving 8.3 million people. The analysis identifies key challenges, including uncertainties in climate projections and weak evidence of climate-society interactions, while suggesting that 'low-regrets measures' can reduce vulnerability by shifting from disaster-focused responses to long-term livelihood security.

The author contends that 'perfect' information does not exist and that adaptation decisions require 'decision-relevant' information rather than just accurate data. This information must align with the geographical scale and timeframes of specific policy and investment schedules while remaining scientifically credible. The paper highlights that information needs vary depending on whether the goal is identifying vulnerabilities, setting priorities, or evaluating post-implementation outcomes. To avoid the 'barrier to decision making' created by an abundance of data, the author advocates for a joint responsibility where providers and users engage in a continuous learning process to tailor information to the specific needs of the decision-making community.

The case study finds that while Malawi has a Climate Change Policy and priority areas in its Growth and Development Strategy, ministries are not yet using long-term climate projections in decision-making. Barriers include a perceived lack of sub-national and sector-specific data, timing mismatches with planning cycles, and difficulties in accessing technical information. Planners identified a need for multi-year forecasts (up to five years) and information on extreme events like floods and droughts to inform medium- and long-term planning.

The study finds that the SPEI 12 drought index correlates with forest fire occurrence, particularly during severe and extreme drought events, though 'Milpa' farming remains the primary cause of fire escapes. Projections indicate that future drought events in the region will become more frequent, with an average recurrence time of 1 in 5 years, increasing the risk of escaped agricultural fires.

The document outlines several climate data tools for the Caribbean, including the CARIWIG portal for historical data and projections, the CARIDRO drought tool, and the Tropical Storm Model (TSM). It highlights specific research applications in Belize, Jamaica, and Cuba, and introduces the Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation tool (CCORAL) to help decision-makers integrate climate change into policy despite inherent projection uncertainties.

The document outlines the CARIWIG online data portal, which provides historical climate data and future projections at a 25km resolution for the Caribbean. It highlights four specific tools: a Weather Generator used in Belize to link rising minimum temperatures to dengue fever risks; a Tropical Storm Model used in Jamaica to predict river discharge timing during category 5 hurricanes; the CARIDRO drought tool used in Cuba to project 12-18 moderate to extreme droughts in Las Tunas province by 2050; and the CCORAL tool for integrating climate change into policy. The research emphasizes implementing adaptation actions that perform well across a wide range of uncertain future conditions.

The report details the creation of a comprehensive modeling framework for the Syr Darya River Basin, integrating the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) with the Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO), and a macroeconomic model (Macro). This integrated approach allows for the simulation of complex interdependencies between water availability, energy production, and economic outcomes across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The study evaluates six thematic narratives—ranging from business-as-usual to regional cooperation and ecosystem restoration—under four climate projections (Historical, Dry, Average, and Wet). Key findings indicate that pursuing isolated national interests increases water stress, while regional cooperation and efficiency policies significantly reduce unmet irrigation demands, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and boost agricultural value added and GDP.

The paper argues that while current climate services effectively support daily and seasonal farming decisions, they are underutilized for transformative adaptation—long-term, systemic changes to agricultural production. A review of 253 climate-related policy documents (NDCs, NAPs, and KJWA submissions) revealed that only 2.7% describe the use of climate services for transformative planning. To address this, the author suggests that CS must shift focus toward decadal and long-term projections (up to 2050), integrate non-agricultural data (such as economic and social factors), and be tailored to the needs of policymakers and funders to identify viability thresholds for existing systems. The paper emphasizes that high-quality, tailored CS are essential to prevent developing-country governments from falling behind and to mitigate widening climate-induced inequalities.