Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize

This case study demonstrates that the CARiDRO tool's SPEI 12 index can help identify relationships between drought and forest fires in Belize's Maya Golden Landscape, particularly during extreme drought. While 'Milpa' farming is the primary driver of fire escapes, climate projections suggest increasing drought frequency and intensity. The authors propose integrating CARiDRO into an early warning system and transitioning away from slash-and-burn agriculture.

• The Caribbean Assessment of Regional Drought (CARiDRO) tool, specifically using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) accumulated over 12 months (SPEI 12), shows a relationship with the annual number of forest fires in the Maya Golden Landscape (MGL) area, particularly during severe and extreme drought events.
• While meteorological conditions contribute to fire outbreaks, the primary cause of escaped fires in the MGL area is land-use changes, specifically the traditional 'slash and burn' method of 'Milpa' farming.
• Multi-model projections indicate that future drought events will become more frequent, with an average recurrence time of 1 in 5 years (ranging from 1 in 3 to 1 in 12 years), and the area affected by drought is expected to increase after the middle of the 21st century.
• The authors recommend that CARiDRO be integrated into an early warning system for forest fire management and improved with a regularly updated regional climate monthly database of temperature and precipitation to enable real-time monitoring of dry and wet conditions.
• To reduce the risk of escaped agricultural fires and their negative impacts, the report suggests strengthening land use planning, community awareness, fire management, and the discontinuation of 'Milpa' farming practices.

APA

Centella, A., Bezanilla, A., Vichot, A., & Joslyn, O. (n.d.). Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-forest-fires-in-Belize-Final.pdf

Chicago

Centella, Abel, Arnoldo Bezanilla, Alejandro Vichot, and Ottis Joslyn. Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-forest-fires-in-Belize-Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Centella |first1=Abel |last2=Bezanilla |first2=Arnoldo |last3=Vichot |first3=Alejandro |last4=Joslyn |first4=Ottis |title=Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-forest-fires-in-Belize-Final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centellanddrought, author = {Centella, Abel and Bezanilla, Arnoldo and Vichot, Alejandro and Joslyn, Ottis}, title = {{Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-forest-fires-in-Belize-Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }