Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize

The study finds that the SPEI 12 drought index correlates with forest fire occurrence, particularly during severe and extreme drought events, though 'Milpa' farming remains the primary cause of fire escapes. Projections indicate that future drought events in the region will become more frequent, with an average recurrence time of 1 in 5 years, increasing the risk of escaped agricultural fires.

• The Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) accumulated over 12 months (SPEI 12) shows a relationship with the annual number of forest fires, especially during 'severe and extreme drought events'.
• While meteorological conditions contribute to fire outbreaks, the primary driver of fire escapes in the Maya Golden Landscape is 'Milpa' farming, a traditional 'slash and burn' method used to prepare land.
• Multi-model projections indicate that drought events will increase in frequency, with an average recurrence time of 1 in 5 years (ranging from 1 in 3 to 1 in 12 years), and the area affected by drought is expected to increase after the middle of the 21st century.
• The CARiDRO tool is identified as a potentially useful component for an early warning system for forest fire management, provided it is improved with a regularly updated regional climate monthly database for real-time monitoring.

APA

Centella, A., Bezanilla, A., Vichot, A., & Joslyn, O. (n.d.). Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-forest-fires-in-Belize-Final.pdf

Chicago

Centella, Abel, Arnoldo Bezanilla, Alejandro Vichot, and Ottis Joslyn. Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-forest-fires-in-Belize-Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Centella |first1=Abel |last2=Bezanilla |first2=Arnoldo |last3=Vichot |first3=Alejandro |last4=Joslyn |first4=Ottis |title=Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-forest-fires-in-Belize-Final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centellanddrought, author = {Centella, Abel and Bezanilla, Arnoldo and Vichot, Alejandro and Joslyn, Ottis}, title = {{Drought and Agricultural-related Forest Fires in Belize}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-forest-fires-in-Belize-Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }