Participatory Scenario Development and Future Visioning in Adaptation Planning: Lessons from experience

The document outlines a qualitative participatory scenario development (PSD) approach used to help stakeholders in developing countries anticipate climate change consequences and identify robust adaptation pathways. By combining backcasting—working backward from a desired future—with the introduction of climate and socioeconomic boundary conditions, the process identifies integrated 'hard' (infrastructure) and 'soft' (governance and training) adaptation measures. Key findings emphasize that place-based discussions bridge the gap between abstract global climate models and local policy needs, and that adaptation must be integrated with broader socioeconomic development to be credible and pro-poor. The authors highlight challenges including the cognitive difficulty of imagining long-term futures and the necessity of local collaboration to ensure ownership and relevance.

• Participatory scenario development (PSD) helps bridge the gap between quantitative climate projections and local action because global models often lack the granularity and variable detail needed for place-based policy.
• Effective adaptation planning requires the integration of 'hard' interventions, such as infrastructure, with 'soft' interventions, including governance, training, and policy revisions, to ensure resilience.
• Adaptation pathways must be aligned with desired socioeconomic development goals to be credible, particularly for vulnerable populations where basic service access and living conditions are primary concerns.
• The PSD process enhances the legitimacy and relevance of adaptation options by facilitating dialogue between stakeholders from different sectors and institutions who do not typically interact.
• Applying PSD in developing countries faces significant challenges, including the cognitive difficulty participants have in imagining futures over long horizons and the need for high-quality local data to create useful visualizations.

APA

Bizikova, L., Rothman, D. S., Boardley, S., Mead, S., & Kuriakose, A. T. (2014). Participatory Scenario Development and Future Visioning in Adaptation Planning: Lessons from experience. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory-scenario-development-future-visioning-adaptation-lessons-part-i.pdf

Chicago

Bizikova, Livia, Dale S. Rothman, Samantha Boardley, Simon Mead, and Anne T. Kuriakose. Participatory Scenario Development and Future Visioning in Adaptation Planning: Lessons from experience. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2014. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory-scenario-development-future-visioning-adaptation-lessons-part-i.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bizikova |first1=Livia |last2=Rothman |first2=Dale S. |last3=Boardley |first3=Samantha |last4=Mead |first4=Simon |last5=Kuriakose |first5=Anne T. |title=Participatory Scenario Development and Future Visioning in Adaptation Planning: Lessons from experience |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=March 2014 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory-scenario-development-future-visioning-adaptation-lessons-part-i.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bizikova2014participatory, author = {Bizikova, Livia and Rothman, Dale S. and Boardley, Samantha and Mead, Simon and Kuriakose, Anne T.}, title = {{Participatory Scenario Development and Future Visioning in Adaptation Planning: Lessons from experience}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2014}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory-scenario-development-future-visioning-adaptation-lessons-part-i.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }