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This briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the collapse of multilateralism in the Sahel, focusing on how military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have led to the formation of the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) and a strategic pivot away from Western-led institutions toward partners like Russia and China.

This research paper analyzes the implications of Rwanda's threat to withdraw its security forces from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province. It argues that the deployment serves Rwanda's political and economic interests while highlighting Mozambique's inability to independently secure its territory and the transactional nature of EU and US energy-driven security strategies.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of violent extremism and illicit economies in northern Côte d’Ivoire between 2019 and 2023. It specifically analyzes how extremist groups, including those linked to GSIM and IS Sahel, have infiltrated the livestock economy and illegal artisanal gold mining to secure funding, logistics, and human resources. The document details a three-phase security sequence in the north-east, moving from exploratory incursions to active attacks and a subsequent lull, while providing policy recommendations for regulating the mining and livestock sectors to deprive these groups of resources.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines how violent extremist groups, specifically JNIM and ISGS, exploit illicit activities in northern Benin to secure financial, logistical, and human resources. It documents established links to fuel smuggling, illegal hunting, and drug trafficking, while identifying emerging risks associated with artisanal gold mining and arms trafficking.

This research paper examines the co-constitutive relationship between economic decline and rising insecurity in Nigeria, arguing that poor governance, dwindling state capacity, and systemic poverty drive violence across the country's geopolitical zones.

The April 2022 Peace & Security Council Report examines the security crisis in Burkina Faso, the implementation of the African Union's (AU) youth, peace and security agenda, the appointment of the fifth Panel of the Wise, and Senegal's priorities as AU chair.

This July 2020 issue of the Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines critical political and security challenges across Africa, focusing on the Central African Republic's electoral turning point, the diplomatic impasse between Somalia and Somaliland, insecurity in the Sahel, and the impact of COVID-19 on governance and elections across the continent.

The March 2020 Peace & Security Council Report details the African Union's (AU) response to the COVID-19 pandemic, political instability in Guinea-Bissau and South Sudan, geopolitical competition in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and the AU's marginal role in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute. It also outlines South Africa's priorities as the 2020 AU chair, focusing on 'Silencing the Guns', the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and gender equality.

This policy brief examines the relationship between natural resource extraction and the funding of four violent extremist groups in Africa: al-Shabaab, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), the Janjaweed militia, and Boko Haram. It finds that while some groups rely heavily on illicit trade in charcoal, ivory, or gold, others have little to no connection to resource extraction.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political and security crisis in Burundi triggered by President Pierre Nkurunziza's bid for a third term in 2015. It details the historical context of the Burundian civil war, the CNDD-FDD's consolidation of power through repression and the marginalization of opposition parties, and the internal fractures within the ruling party. The document examines the failure of constitutional amendments, the role of the security sector in suppressing dissent, and the subsequent impact on civil society and the media.

This research paper argues that while military interventions and shipping industry protections reduced Somali piracy, they failed to address root causes such as political instability, youth unemployment, and Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing. The author advocates for a shift from traditional naval deterrence toward supporting Somalia's maritime governance, specifically through the implementation of the Somalia Maritime Resource and Security Strategy (SMRSS) and the development of the national coast guard and navy to combat IUU fishing.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the risks of religious radicalism in Côte d’Ivoire, focusing on Pentecostal Christian movements, various currents of Islam, and the Lebanese Shiite community's links to Hezbollah. While concluding that radicalism has not yet reached the scale seen elsewhere in the region, the document identifies several political, socio-economic, and regulatory vulnerabilities that could facilitate future radicalisation.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the drivers and types of insecurity in Kenya, arguing that while al-Shabaab receives significant attention, armed criminal groups and the nature of Kenyan politics pose more widespread threats. The document examines the role of state-led violence, historical land injustices, and regional dynamics in the Horn of Africa in shaping the country's security landscape.

This August 2012 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides early warning analyses on political and security crises in Mali, Libya, Angola, and Somalia, while examining the evolving role of China in African peace and security efforts.

This December 2011 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides security analyses and early warning assessments for the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC). It focuses on the fragile post-election landscape in Liberia, escalating border conflicts and humanitarian crises between Sudan and South Sudan, the expanding threat of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) across the Sahel, and political instability in Burundi. Additionally, it examines the partnership and occasional divergences between the PSC and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

This briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) analyzes the internal, regional, and international security implications following the death of Muammar Gaddafi on 20 October 2011. It examines the challenges facing the National Transitional Council (NTC) in managing armed militias and oil revenues, the risk of arms proliferation across the Sahel and Maghreb, and the geopolitical opportunities for South Africa and the African Union (AU) to influence the transition and strengthen regional security mechanisms.

The October 2011 PSC Report by the Institute for Security Studies provides analysis on peace and security issues across Africa, focusing on the volatile situation in Darfur, the rise of Boko Haram in Nigeria, and political instability and terrorism threats in Niger. It also details the upcoming African Union Commission elections and regional counter-terrorism efforts.

This research paper analyzes the political crisis in Zimbabwe circa 2005, arguing that the ruling ZANU-PF elite is trapped in an 'insecurity dilemma' driven by the fear of international prosecution for human rights abuses. The author explores how this fear, combined with ethno-linguistic factionalism—specifically the dominance of the Zezuru faction—impedes a peaceful transition to democracy and shapes the party's resistance to power-sharing with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the precarious security situation in southern Sudan following the May 2004 IGAD framework agreement. It argues that widespread breaches of existing security agreements, a profound lack of trust between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), and the failure of monitoring mechanisms threaten the long-term viability of the peace process.

This report analyses the South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF), a conglomerate of government-supported militias, and argues that its exclusion from the IGAD-sponsored peace process between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) threatens the stability of southern Sudan.