Are U.S. Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Necessary? A Japanese Security Analysis

The briefing analyzes the proposed return of U.S. nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) from a Japanese security perspective. It argues that the capabilities once sought by Japan—such as low yield, stealth, and survivability—are already provided by other modernized U.S. assets, including the W76-2 low-yield SLBM warhead, B61-12 bombs, and long-range stand-off (LRSO) missiles. The author concludes that nuclear SLCMs would be a duplicative capability with low marginal benefit, especially given China's increasing anti-access and anti-denial (A2/AD) capabilities.

• The 2018 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) proposed reviving nuclear-armed SLCMs to enhance deterrence against regional aggression and provide a non-strategic regional presence, specifically as a response to Russia's treaty violations and to assure NATO allies.
• While initially focused on Russia and NATO, the U.S. has increasingly viewed nuclear SLCMs as relevant to China, particularly to prevent Beijing from believing it could gain an advantage through the limited use of theater nuclear capabilities.
• The requirement for 'low yield' nuclear options, which Japan previously valued in the TLAM/N system, is already met by the deployment of the W76-2 low-yield SLBM warhead and the development of the B61-12.
• Nuclear SLCMs on surface ships are considered vulnerable due to China's expanding anti-access and anti-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, and submarine-based SLCMs offer no significant signaling advantage over bombers.
• The W76-2 warhead provides superior capabilities to the nuclear SLCM in terms of promptness and the ability to destroy hardened targets, such as North Korean mobile missiles or underground bunkers.
• The author concludes that nuclear-armed SLCMs are a duplicative capability that can be substituted by other modernized U.S. nuclear assets, offering low marginal benefit to Japanese security.

APA

Nishida, M. (2022). Are U.S. Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Necessary? A Japanese Security Analysis. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Are-U.S.-Nuclear-Sea-Launched-Cruise-Missiles-Necessary_A-Japanese-Security-Analysis_BRIEFER-30_2022_02_09.pdf

Chicago

Nishida, Michiru. Are U.S. Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Necessary? A Japanese Security Analysis. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Are-U.S.-Nuclear-Sea-Launched-Cruise-Missiles-Necessary_A-Japanese-Security-Analysis_BRIEFER-30_2022_02_09.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Nishida |first1=Michiru |title=Are U.S. Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Necessary? A Japanese Security Analysis |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=9 February 2022 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Are-U.S.-Nuclear-Sea-Launched-Cruise-Missiles-Necessary_A-Japanese-Security-Analysis_BRIEFER-30_2022_02_09.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{nishida2022are, author = {Nishida, Michiru}, title = {{Are U.S. Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Necessary? A Japanese Security Analysis}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Are-U.S.-Nuclear-Sea-Launched-Cruise-Missiles-Necessary_A-Japanese-Security-Analysis_BRIEFER-30_2022_02_09.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }