Societal and Security Implications of Ecosystem Services Declines

The report examines how the decline of pollination and seed dispersal services threatens global food security, economic stability, and political order. It highlights that while global production tonnage may only drop by 5-8%, the impact is acute for pollinator-dependent nations and critical for nutritional health. The document also warns that seed dispersal failure undermines forest integrity and carbon sinks, potentially destabilizing fragile states where populations are highly dependent on forest resources.

• Pollinator declines pose a significant threat to nutritional security and public health, as many essential micronutrients (vitamins A and C, calcium, fluoride, and folic acid) are found in pollinator-dependent crops. This is particularly critical in Vitamin A deficient regions, which are estimated to be three times more reliant on these crops, potentially leading to over a million additional deaths per year from preventable diseases like coronary heart disease.
• The vulnerability to pollinator decline is geographically heterogeneous; Côte d’Ivoire is identified as the country most dependent on pollinators based on agricultural production values, primarily due to cocoa beans, coffee, and other crops. Other highly vulnerable nations include New Zealand, Samoa, New Caledonia, and Antigua and Barbuda.
• The concept of 'virtual pollination' demonstrates that pollinator declines in one country propagate internationally through trade. For example, the United States has a heavy dependence on Mexico for imported virtual pollinated services, and declines in Brazil would have large consequences for China.
• Pollination and seed dispersal declines can undermine political and social stability by worsening poverty, inequality, and food price shocks. This risk is highest in countries that combine high pollinator or forest dependence with existing state fragility, such as Côte d’Ivoire, Papua New Guinea, Honduras, and Guinea-Bissau.
• Seed dispersal declines critically impair the ability of plants to adapt to climate change and undermine forest integrity. Defaunation has already suppressed the ability of plants to disperse seeds by approximately 60%, with another 15% projected globally. This reduces the effectiveness of forest restoration as a carbon sink, as the loss of seed dispersers leads to a lack of large-seeded, high wood density plants essential for carbon storage.
• Declines in seed dispersal threaten the livelihoods of the approximately one-third of the world's population dependent on forests, particularly in the tropics. This includes the formal timber industry, which employs over 13.2 million people worldwide, as well as those collecting fuelwood or non-timber forest products.
• Forest degradation resulting from seed dispersal declines may increase the risk of human infectious diseases and future pandemics by removing the buffer that prevents drastic changes in the distribution of reservoirs and hosts and reduces contact between humans, livestock, and wildlife.

APA

Schoonover, R. (2022). Societal and Security Implications of Ecosystem Services Declines. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Societal-and-Security-Implications-of-Ecosystem-Service-Declines_Part-1-Pollination-and-Seed-Dispersal_March-2022.pdf

Chicago

Schoonover, Rod. Societal and Security Implications of Ecosystem Services Declines. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Societal-and-Security-Implications-of-Ecosystem-Service-Declines_Part-1-Pollination-and-Seed-Dispersal_March-2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Schoonover |first1=Rod |title=Societal and Security Implications of Ecosystem Services Declines |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=March 2022 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Societal-and-Security-Implications-of-Ecosystem-Service-Declines_Part-1-Pollination-and-Seed-Dispersal_March-2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{schoonover2022societal, author = {Schoonover, Rod}, title = {{Societal and Security Implications of Ecosystem Services Declines}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = mar, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Societal-and-Security-Implications-of-Ecosystem-Service-Declines_Part-1-Pollination-and-Seed-Dispersal_March-2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }