Search Climate Insights Directory

The report identifies several systemic barriers to development in the Democratic Republic of Congo, including poor governance, lack of industrialization, and inadequate infrastructure. To overcome these, it recommends investing in climate-resilient agricultural technologies, diversifying the economy through downstream value addition, and deploying renewable energy mini-grids to improve electricity access. Additionally, the document emphasizes the need for human capital development through revised education programs and expanded access to modern contraceptives.

The report compares a 'base case' trajectory for the Democratic Republic of Congo with several sectoral scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It finds that while the combined scenario significantly boosts GDP and reduces extreme poverty and inequality, it also leads to higher carbon emissions. Industrialization and manufacturing are identified as the most impactful drivers for long-term GDP per capita growth, while agriculture provides the strongest short-to-medium term gains. The report emphasizes the need for a green energy transition to mitigate the environmental costs of this economic growth.

The report argues that achieving net-zero aviation emissions by 2050 requires a multi-fuel approach because sustainable biofuels alone cannot meet projected energy demands. It examines synthetic fuels (e-fuels) as a scalable drop-in solution, though currently expensive, and analyzes the potential of hydrogen and ammonia for regional and domestic flights. While electrification is limited to niche urban air mobility, the report suggests a 2050 fuel mix comprising 86% bio- and synthetic SAF and 14% zero-carbon fuels (hydrogen and ammonia) as a plausible path to decarbonization, provided there is massive scale-up of low-carbon hydrogen production and supportive policy frameworks.

The analysis indicates that India's current transport trajectory is not aligned with a Paris-aligned just transition. While baseline and least-cost pathways fail to meet decarbonisation goals, transition pathways focusing on shifting demand to public modes, specifically electrified rail, show promise for reducing emissions and costs. Achieving net-zero targets between 2050 and 2070 would require annual public investments of approximately USD 164 billion (2020 USD) from 2023 to 2030, primarily for electrified rail and bus infrastructure. Such a transition is projected to foster economic growth, create jobs in the electric vehicle industry, and reduce reliance on crude oil imports.

The report is part of a series of country studies commissioned by the African Climate Foundation and produced by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It examines Kenya's climate profile through scenario analysis, assesses the implications for key economic sectors and macroeconomic factors such as trade and fiscal health, reviews existing government adaptation measures, and provides strategic recommendations for mobilizing climate resilience funding.

The report examines Zambia's changing climate profile, the resulting implications for key economic sectors and macroeconomic stability, the effectiveness of existing government adaptation measures, and strategic recommendations for mobilizing climate resilience funding.

The report analyzes Malawi's climate profile, the resulting implications for key economic sectors and macroeconomic stability, and evaluates existing government adaptation measures to provide strategic recommendations for funding climate resilience.

The report argues that Poland requires a diverse technological portfolio—including wind, solar, nuclear, and carbon capture—to decarbonise its power system by 2050. Modelling of 19 scenarios indicates that relying on a narrow set of technologies increases system costs and infrastructure needs, while a 'base' scenario suggests a rapid transition involving a massive build-out of onshore wind and the introduction of nuclear power to replace coal.

The report outlines a methodological framework for evaluating infrastructure in the Shymkent–Tashkent–Khujand economic corridor, comparing 'business-as-usual' scenarios with sustainable alternatives for transport and buildings. It proposes shifting from road-based freight to electrified rail and adopting green building standards to reduce CO2 emissions, lower operational costs, and improve health and employment outcomes. The assessment utilizes the SAVi methodology to integrate externalities, such as the social cost of carbon and health impacts, into a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis.

The document outlines discussions from a foresight workshop involving 42 academics and practitioners from 15 countries in Asia and the Pacific. It identifies key drivers of change—specifically artificial intelligence, cultural values, and economic power relations—and their potential impacts on the environment and society. The briefing recommends transforming economic systems away from GDP-centric models, enhancing governance through AI ethics and transboundary cooperation, and centering rights and justice to protect marginalized groups and the environment.

The PEN 2022-2052 is a long-term planning exercise by Colombia's UPME to transition the national energy matrix toward sustainability and decarbonization. It analyzes five scenarios—Actualization, Modernization, Inflexion, Innovation, and Energy Transition—ranging from conservative technological updates to ambitious transformations. Key focus areas include the electrification of transport, the integration of non-conventional renewable energy sources (FNCER), the development of a hydrogen economy, and the potential introduction of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). The report emphasizes that while Colombia has the capacity for carbon neutrality, current trajectories may not meet the 2030 NDC goal of a 51% emission reduction without accelerated implementation of efficiency and substitution measures.

The report finds that while the VCM is viewed as a strategic tool for achieving net zero and incentivizing internal decarbonization, its growth is stymied by a lack of recognition from climate goal standard-setters and perceived reputational risks. Survey data suggests that if standard-setters like the SBTi recognized carbon credits and regulatory claims codes were adopted, corporate spending and the setting of ambitious emissions targets would increase significantly.

The report outlines a framework for South Africa's energy transition toward 2050, promoting a 'Regenerative Prosperity' model that prioritizes ecological stewardship and well-being over unlimited growth. It identifies driving forces for change, such as shifting cultural values and civic technologies, while highlighting key uncertainties regarding geopolitical alignments and economic paradigms. The document urges a move away from growth-centric economies and 'used futures' toward inclusive governance and decentralized energy systems.

The report concludes that the EU's demand for fossil gas and oil is in a long-term structural decline, making new production projects—especially in the Arctic—unnecessary and incompatible with 1.5°C warming limits. Analysis shows that existing production and current contracts will likely exceed EU demand by the 2030s in net-zero aligned scenarios, creating a risk of oversupply and stranded assets.

The analysis demonstrates that ships built or retrofitted with dual-fuel capacity for ammonia can meet or exceed EU marine sector decarbonization targets at costs equal to or lower than conventional heavy fuel oil (HFO) ships when carbon pricing is applied. A new build fully powered by ammonia can reduce lifetime emissions by 77% with a lifetime fuel cost equivalent to an HFO ship, while retrofits can reduce emissions by 41-52% at a lower overall cost. The report highlights that ammonia's viability depends on the availability of varying carbon intensities—from 'moderate CI' produced via natural gas with carbon capture to 'very low CI' produced via electrolysis—and notes that while ammonia is already handled globally, its toxicity requires purpose-built ship systems and ongoing safety validation by the IMO.

The report evaluates the FAME II policy in India, finding that it generates significant net benefits by replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs). Using the SAVi methodology, the analysis demonstrates that while the conventional benefit-cost ratio (BCR) remains constant at 1.58 across scenarios, the government's BCR increases as its subsidy contribution decreases. The highest cumulative net benefits (INR 1,606.90 billion) occur in the scenario with the lowest government contribution (25%), as this shifts more of the investment burden to consumers while still stimulating EV uptake. The primary drivers of these benefits are the avoided investment and operation costs of ICE vehicles and reduced fuel use, all of which are borne by users rather than the state.

The report evaluates three primary net-zero transport scenarios for Indonesia: investment in public transport (Scenario 1), 100% private vehicle electrification powered by renewable energy (Scenario 2), and a mixed approach (Scenario 3). Using the SAVi methodology, the analysis finds that Scenario 3 delivers the highest cumulative discounted net benefit of IDR 6,926.03 trillion (USD 450.1 billion) by 2050. While Scenario 2 offers the most attractive benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 1.97 due to lower infrastructure costs, Scenario 3 provides the greatest overall societal value by combining 'avoid, shift, and improve' strategies. The report emphasizes that achieving net-zero in transport is inextricably linked to the decarbonization of the electricity supply, as sensitivity analyses show that the current energy mix significantly reduces net benefits.

The Russian coal sector is facing a period of decline driven by Western sanctions, rising transport costs, and a shifting global market. While the sector initially buffered the impact of sanctions through peak prices in 2022–2023, 2024 has seen a significant drop in export profitability, with 50% of producers reporting losses in Q1. The report outlines three futures: a 'Developing Coal Sector' following a peace agreement, a 'Shift to the East' as a continuation of the current status quo, and a 'Declining Coal Sector' resulting from expanded conflict and further isolation. Regional impacts vary significantly, with Yakutia emerging as a growth center due to its proximity to Asia, while traditional Siberian hubs like Kuzbass and Khakassia face economic instability and social risk.

The Energy Progress Report 2024 reveals that the world is not on track to achieve any of the 2030 targets for SDG 7. While 91% of the global population has electricity access, progress reversed in 2022, leaving 685.2 million people without power, with 83% of the deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa. Clean cooking access stands at 74%, but 2.1 billion people still rely on polluting fuels. Renewable energy's share in total final energy consumption was 18.7% in 2021, and global energy intensity improved by only 0.8% in 2021, far below the 2.6% target. International public financial flows to developing countries rebounded to USD 15.4 billion in 2022 but remain well below the 2016 peak of USD 28.5 billion.

The study investigates the transition of Poland's power system to a 99% reduction in emissions by 2050. The 'base' scenario identifies onshore wind as the dominant generation source, complemented by nuclear power, gas plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and hydrogen storage. The analysis emphasizes that a technology-inclusive approach is essential for competitiveness, as scenarios excluding nuclear and CCS result in significantly higher electricity prices and system costs. Key recommendations include maximizing onshore wind deployment, advancing a nuclear fleet exceeding 8 GW, and establishing CO2 transport and storage infrastructure by 2035.