POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION POLAND

The study investigates the transition of Poland's power system to a 99% reduction in emissions by 2050. The 'base' scenario identifies onshore wind as the dominant generation source, complemented by nuclear power, gas plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and hydrogen storage. The analysis emphasizes that a technology-inclusive approach is essential for competitiveness, as scenarios excluding nuclear and CCS result in significantly higher electricity prices and system costs. Key recommendations include maximizing onshore wind deployment, advancing a nuclear fleet exceeding 8 GW, and establishing CO2 transport and storage infrastructure by 2035.

• The 'base' scenario for a decarbonized Polish power system in 2050 relies heavily on onshore wind, which would require a long-term build rate of approximately 3 GW/year, peaking at 7 GW/year in the early 2040s to reach an installed capacity of 73 GW.
• Nuclear power is projected to play a substantial role in the 2050 base scenario, with an installed capacity of approximately 8 GW contributing over 15% of annual power production.
• Dispatchable power in the 2050 base scenario is provided by a mix of gas power plants (approximately 23 GW capacity, 10% of generation), including combined-cycle plants with CCS (7% of dispatchable generation), and hydrogen-fuelled plants (close to 4 GW capacity).
• The study finds that a technology-inclusive policy is a prerequisite for competitiveness; the 'VRE -- no nucl. no CCS' scenario, which excludes nuclear and CCS and assumes stagnating renewable costs, results in an average electricity price of 141 €/MWh, compared to 53 €/MWh in the base scenario.
• Nuclear power reduces the system's reliance on transmission infrastructure, land use, and critical minerals compared to other decarbonization pathways.
• The analysis suggests a rapid phase-out of coal power by 2035, which differs from current Polish energy policy that favors a more gradual transition.
• Retrofitting coal power plant sites with nuclear power (repowering) is identified as a pivotal opportunity to speed up decarbonization, potentially reducing upfront overnight capital costs by 28% to 35% compared to greenfield projects.
• To achieve full decarbonization (maximum 2 Mt annual direct emissions) by 2050, the model indicates a required CO2 price of approximately 230 €/tCO2, though this varies by scenario.

APA

Såmark-Roth, A., Hellesen, C., Jurasz, J., Lundström, L., Lagnelöv, O., Cox, D., Damasceno, D., & Dąbek, P. (2023). POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION POLAND. Clean Air Task Force. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/21085850/Power-System-Expansion-Poland-Study.pdf

Chicago

Såmark-Roth, Anton, Carl Hellesen, Jakub Jurasz, Lukas Lundström, Oscar Lagnelöv, Daniel Cox, Davi Damasceno, and Paweł Dąbek. POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION POLAND. Clean Air Task Force, 2023. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/21085850/Power-System-Expansion-Poland-Study.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Såmark-Roth |first1=Anton |last2=Hellesen |first2=Carl |last3=Jurasz |first3=Jakub |last4=Lundström |first4=Lukas |last5=Lagnelöv |first5=Oscar |last6=Cox |first6=Daniel |last7=Damasceno |first7=Davi |last8=Dąbek |first8=Paweł |title=POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION POLAND |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=15 December 2023 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/21085850/Power-System-Expansion-Poland-Study.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{smarkroth2023power, author = {Såmark-Roth, Anton and Hellesen, Carl and Jurasz, Jakub and Lundström, Lukas and Lagnelöv, Oscar and Cox, Daniel and Damasceno, Davi and Dąbek, Paweł}, title = {{POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION POLAND}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/21085850/Power-System-Expansion-Poland-Study.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }