Decarbonising Poland’s Power System: A Scenario-Based Evaluation

The report argues that Poland requires a diverse technological portfolio—including wind, solar, nuclear, and carbon capture—to decarbonise its power system by 2050. Modelling of 19 scenarios indicates that relying on a narrow set of technologies increases system costs and infrastructure needs, while a 'base' scenario suggests a rapid transition involving a massive build-out of onshore wind and the introduction of nuclear power to replace coal.

• Poland's electricity demand is projected to rise significantly due to the electrification of heating and transport and the use of electrolysers for green hydrogen, increasing from just over 150 TWh/yr in 2021 to over 250 TWh/yr by 2040.
• Onshore wind is expected to be the primary generation source across most scenarios. The 'base' scenario requires a build rate of approximately 3 GW/year, peaking at 7 GW/year in the early 2040s to reach a capacity of 73 GW by 2050.
• Nuclear power is identified as a key component for system reliability and robustness. Deployment of nuclear capacity between 8 GW and 21 GW by 2050 has a minimal impact on total system costs while reducing reliance on expanded transmission infrastructure and freeing up land.
• Excluding both nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies results in outcomes that are neither affordable nor reliable. Limiting options can triple the required energy infrastructure, such as transmission networks, and increase overall system costs.
• A rapid phase-out of coal is common across all scenarios, driven by the cost-ineffectiveness of coal compared to gas power plants due to expected high CO2 prices. In the short term, the report suggests replacing coal with natural gas combined-cycle and open-cycle gas turbine plants, later retrofitting them with CCS.
• The 'base' scenario assumes the establishment of CO2 transport and storage infrastructure by 2035 and nearly 100% carbon capture efficiency for CCS-equipped plants by 2050.

APA

Clean Air Task Force (2024). Decarbonising Poland’s Power System: A Scenario-Based Evaluation. https://www.catf.us/resource/decarbonising-polands-power-system-a-scenario-based-evaluation/

Chicago

Clean Air Task Force. Decarbonising Poland’s Power System: A Scenario-Based Evaluation. 2024. https://www.catf.us/resource/decarbonising-polands-power-system-a-scenario-based-evaluation/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Clean Air Task Force |title=Decarbonising Poland’s Power System: A Scenario-Based Evaluation |date=4 March 2024 |url=https://www.catf.us/resource/decarbonising-polands-power-system-a-scenario-based-evaluation/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleanairtaskforce2024decarbonising, author = {{Clean Air Task Force}}, title = {{Decarbonising Poland’s Power System: A Scenario-Based Evaluation}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2024}, month = mar, url = {https://www.catf.us/resource/decarbonising-polands-power-system-a-scenario-based-evaluation/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }