Decarbonizing Aviation: Enabling Technologies for a Net-Zero Future

The report argues that achieving net-zero aviation emissions by 2050 requires a multi-fuel approach because sustainable biofuels alone cannot meet projected energy demands. It examines synthetic fuels (e-fuels) as a scalable drop-in solution, though currently expensive, and analyzes the potential of hydrogen and ammonia for regional and domestic flights. While electrification is limited to niche urban air mobility, the report suggests a 2050 fuel mix comprising 86% bio- and synthetic SAF and 14% zero-carbon fuels (hydrogen and ammonia) as a plausible path to decarbonization, provided there is massive scale-up of low-carbon hydrogen production and supportive policy frameworks.

• Exclusive reliance on sustainable biofuels is insufficient for long-term decarbonization due to feedstock and land-use constraints; by 2050, aviation energy demand (estimated at 21.5 quads) could be double the projected global biofuels supply.
• Synthetic fuels (e-fuels) provide a scalable drop-in alternative to kerosene but are currently expensive, with production costs ranging from $1.50 to $4.50 per gallon, or two to five times the cost of traditional jet fuel.
• Direct air capture (DAC) is identified as the most readily scalable carbon sourcing technology for synthetic fuels, though it is the most expensive at $600–$1,000 per metric ton of CO2, compared to $15–$130 for point-source capture.
• Hydrogen-powered aircraft are likely limited to regional routes (under 750 miles) by 2050 due to the low volumetric energy density of liquid hydrogen and the resulting need for large, heavy cryogenic tanks that reduce passenger capacity.
• Ammonia is a promising zero-carbon carrier with 49% more energy per volume than liquid hydrogen, potentially covering 75% of domestic flights, but the technology is approximately 10 years behind hydrogen and faces toxicity concerns.
• Full electrification is expected to play only a niche role in aviation, primarily for urban air mobility (eVTOLs), because commercial regional flights would require battery energy densities of 750 Wh/kg, which is three to four times current capabilities.
• Non-CO2 effects, specifically contrail cirrus, may account for as much as two-thirds of aviation's total climate impact by trapping infrared radiation and causing net warming.
• In a plausible 2050 'base case' scenario, 86% of aviation energy demand is met by bio- and synthetic SAF, while zero-carbon fuels (hydrogen and ammonia) cover the remaining 14%.
• The transition to synthetic fuels will create massive demand for low-carbon hydrogen; in the base case, aviation would utilize 81.7% of the IEA's projected hydrogen supply for all transportation uses in 2050.
• Effective policy tools to accelerate decarbonization include clean fuel standards with a trajectory to net-zero by midcentury, synthetic SAF mandates, production subsidies, and contracts for differences (CfD).

APA

III, T. K. W., Tatsutani, M., & Lewis, J. (2024). Decarbonizing Aviation: Enabling Technologies for a Net-Zero Future. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/resource/decarbonizing-aviation-enabling-technologies-net-zero-future/

Chicago

III, Thomas K. Walker, Marika Tatsutani, and Jonathan Lewis. Decarbonizing Aviation: Enabling Technologies for a Net-Zero Future. Clean Air Task Force, 2024. https://www.catf.us/resource/decarbonizing-aviation-enabling-technologies-net-zero-future/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=III |first1=Thomas K. Walker |last2=Tatsutani |first2=Marika |last3=Lewis |first3=Jonathan |title=Decarbonizing Aviation: Enabling Technologies for a Net-Zero Future |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=30 April 2024 |url=https://www.catf.us/resource/decarbonizing-aviation-enabling-technologies-net-zero-future/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{iii2024decarbonizing, author = {III, Thomas K. Walker and Tatsutani, Marika and Lewis, Jonathan}, title = {{Decarbonizing Aviation: Enabling Technologies for a Net-Zero Future}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2024}, month = apr, url = {https://www.catf.us/resource/decarbonizing-aviation-enabling-technologies-net-zero-future/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }