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The report analyzes the California-Quebec linked cap-and-trade program, finding that allowance supply has consistently exceeded emissions from 2013 to 2015, leading to periodic undersubscription at auctions. While recent low auction sales (11% in May 2016 and 18% in February 2017) are viewed as aberrations, the author argues that systemic oversupply persists. Prospective analysis suggests that 78-86% of remaining allowances will be needed for compliance through 2020, with auction demand likely averaging 71-81%. To improve stringency and revenue stability, the report recommends lowering caps, switching to annual compliance, increasing the price floor, and reducing free allowance allocations.

The research examines the role of emerging donors, specifically South Africa and Turkey, in peacebuilding within fragile states. It finds that while these providers often deliver more resources and exhibit greater flexibility and respect for national sovereignty than traditional donors, they lack a coherent theory of change and struggle with internal coordination and transparency. The study highlights a tension between the rhetoric of solidarity and the reality of strategic economic interests, such as trade and energy potential.

The paper examines climate finance for 15 Pacific Island states from 2010 to 2014, finding that 748 million USD was committed, primarily as grants and project-based support. Adaptation received the largest share of funding (59%), with bilateral channels providing 72% of the total. While the Global Environment Facility was the dominant multilateral source through 2014, the Green Climate Fund and Pilot Program for Climate Resilience have provided significant allocations since 2015.

Between 2010 and 2014, US$748 million in climate finance primarily targeting climate change was committed to 15 Pacific SIDS, predominantly as grants. The funding was split between adaptation (59%) and mitigation (36%), with 72% sourced through bilateral channels, led by Australia. The vast majority of support (86%) was project-based, with a heavy concentration in creating 'enabling environments' and renewable energy. The analysis notes that Polynesian countries were more successful in attracting diverse funding than Micronesian countries, and highlights significant differences in flexibility and transaction costs between bilateral and multilateral funding sources.

Between 2010 and 2014, US$748 million in climate finance was committed to 15 Pacific SIDS, primarily as grants and delivered through bilateral channels. Adaptation received 59% of this funding, while 36% went to mitigation. The majority of support (86%) was project-based, with a strong focus on creating an 'enabling environment' for climate policy and planning.

The document presents the NDC-SDG Connections tool, developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the German Development Institute, which disaggregates 161 NDCs into over 7,000 activities to map their links to the 17 SDGs and 169 targets. The analysis reveals that while NDCs span all SDGs, the strongest connections are in water, food, and energy, whereas social goals like health, education, and gender equality are under-represented. The tool highlights synergies across sectors—such as agriculture linking SDG 2, 6, and 15—but notes that it does not identify trade-offs, which remain an unexplored area for policy-makers.

The document argues that consumption-based accounting provides a more nuanced view of climate responsibility than territorial accounting by attributing emissions to the final consumers of goods and services. Using data from the Eora and IOTA models, it demonstrates that high-income OECD members have increasingly imported emissions from middle-income countries between 1992 and 2010, suggesting that some territorial emission reductions in wealthy nations are the result of 'carbon leakage' to other territories.

The 2016 NYDF Progress Assessment indicates a complex trend where annual net forest loss is declining, but gross tree cover loss remains steady or increasing. While corporate commitments to deforestation-free supply chains are growing, particularly for palm oil and wood, cattle and soy remain under-addressed. Restoration pledges under the Bonn Challenge and UNFCCC have increased significantly, and the Paris Agreement has formally integrated land-use and REDD+ into global climate mitigation. However, financial disbursements for results-based payments lag behind pledges, and forest governance remains a critical challenge, evidenced by a record number of killings of land and environment defenders in 2015.

The report updates global climate finance data for 2013 and 2014, finding an annual average of USD 367 billion. It highlights the dominance of renewable energy and domestic investment, while noting a shift where developing countries began receiving more investment than developed countries in 2014. The document also identifies significant data gaps in adaptation and energy efficiency tracking.

The research analyzes particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and their chemical components at two UK EMEP 'supersites' in Harwell and Auchencorth Moss. By integrating statistical analysis of measurements with air-mass back trajectory data, the study characterizes the 'chemical climate' and the contributions of different concentrations, months, components, and geographic regions to long-term health-relevant PM metrics. The findings indicate that there is no single dominant determinant of long-term PM metrics, meaning effective mitigation requires multilateral action across various source sectors and both national and international levels.

The report finds that millions of Latinos in the US are disproportionately exposed to toxic air pollutants and ozone from oil and gas infrastructure, leading to significant health burdens. It highlights that 1.81 million Latinos live within a half-mile of such facilities and 1.78 million live in counties where cancer risks exceed EPA concern levels. The document argues that poverty and lack of health insurance exacerbate these risks, and calls for the EPA to regulate existing facilities, not just new ones, to protect public health and address climate change.

The report finds that millions of Latinos are exposed to toxic air pollutants and ozone smog from oil and gas facilities, leading to elevated cancer risks and childhood asthma attacks. These health threats are exacerbated by higher poverty rates and lower health insurance coverage within Latino populations. The authors argue for comprehensive EPA regulations covering both new and existing oil and gas infrastructure to reduce methane and toxic emissions.

This research paper assesses South Africa's role as an emerging development partner in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Using the NeST analytical framework, it examines the scope and quality of South African initiatives in peace, security, and state-building. The study finds that South Africa is a significant development partner, often exceeding traditional OECD donors when measured relative to Gross National Income. While the partnership is characterized by high levels of trust and demand-driven support, it suffers from fragmented coordination, weak monitoring and evaluation systems, and a lack of clear strategic objectives. The document highlights specific contributions in electoral support, public sector reform, and infrastructure financing, while noting challenges such as political instability in the DRC and bureaucratic inefficiencies in South Africa.

The study finds that ethnic civil wars have indeed declined since the mid-1990s, supporting Ted Robert Gurr's projections. The authors demonstrate that this pacifying trend is associated with increased government accommodation, specifically through the granting of group rights, power-sharing, and democratization, which reduce the probability of conflict onset. Additionally, regional autonomy and peacekeeping operations are found to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict termination. Out-of-sample predictions show that a theory-driven model based on accommodative politics far outperforms a simple time-trend model in predicting the actual decline of ethnic conflict from 2000 to 2013.

The report analyzes 35 climate and energy policies for China using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), comparing a Reference Scenario (RS) with a Low Carbon (LC) and an Accelerated Low Carbon (ALC) scenario. It finds that carbon pricing, renewable energy standards, and enhanced building codes are among the most effective tools for reducing CO2e emissions. While the LC scenario aims to peak CO2 emissions between 2025 and 2030, the ALC scenario focuses on cost-effectiveness to peak CO2 as soon as possible, achieving a peak in 2022. The analysis highlights that regulatory policies generally drive the majority of emissions reductions, though carbon pricing has the highest overall abatement potential. The report recommends a carbon price of at least 60 RMB per ton, increased renewable energy targets beyond 30% by 2030, and the adoption of MOHURD One Star as the minimum building code standard.

The study evaluates the South Africa–DRC development partnership, finding that South Africa is a significant partner in absolute financial terms and relative to its gross national income. While the partnership aligns with SSC values of national ownership and non-conditionality, it suffers from fragmented coordination, weak monitoring and evaluation systems, and a lack of clear strategic intent from the South African side.

The report develops the Transnational Climate Impacts (TCI) Index to measure how countries are exposed to climate risks originating outside their borders. Using a framework of four risk pathways—biophysical, finance, people, and trade—alongside a global context indicator, the authors identify nine indicators of exposure. The resulting index reveals that many high-income, small European nations are highly exposed to transnational risks, contrasting with traditional vulnerability indices that primarily highlight low-income nations. The authors present this as a tool to raise awareness for national adaptation planning, though they note it is a preliminary instrument not yet intended for direct decision-making.

The research finds that phasing out U.S. federal fossil fuel leases could reduce global CO2 emissions by approximately 100 million tonnes per year by 2030. The impact is most immediate for coal, where it could leave 4 billion short tons of coal in the ground by 2040. Oil and gas impacts are more gradual due to longer project lead times, but could eventually leave 7 billion barrels of oil and 30 trillion cubic feet of gas undeveloped by 2040. The study concludes that such supply-side measures are a significant complement to demand-side policies like the Clean Power Plan in meeting Paris Agreement targets.

The report finds that Germany has sufficient capital to meet its renewable energy targets, with an annual investment potential of €25-€35 billion, which is 60-170% more than required. However, achieving these goals at the lowest cost requires a diverse mix of investors, including small-scale end users and institutional investors. The analysis highlights that current energy market designs could lead to over 1,000 hours of negative electricity prices per year by 2030, and that aggressive economic curtailment policies could increase onshore wind bid prices by 17% by 2020. To mitigate these risks, the report recommends 'take-or-pay' arrangements or proportional curtailment. Additionally, it warns that complex incentive auction designs may exclude smaller investors, who provided over 25% of equity investment in 2015, potentially increasing long-term energy costs by limiting competition and site diversity.

The report finds that Germany has sufficient capital to meet its renewable energy targets, with an annual investment potential of €25-€35 billion, which is 60-170% more than required. However, achieving these goals cost-effectively requires a diverse mix of investors, including utilities, developers, financial institutions, and end users. The analysis highlights that while short-term finance and long-term debt are plentiful, long-term equity is spread unevenly across technologies. Key policy risks identified include the complexity of incentive auctions, which may exclude small investors, and the threat of economic curtailment due to negative electricity prices, which could increase onshore wind bid prices by 17% by 2020. The report argues that a coherent energy market design is the most critical long-term factor for maintaining investment and reducing costs.