CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA

This report, produced by Energy Innovation, China’s National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC), and China’s Energy Research Institute (ERI), uses the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to identify cost-effective climate and energy policies for China. The analysis compares a Reference Scenario (RS) against a Low Carbon (LC) scenario and an Accelerated Low Carbon (ALC) scenario, evaluating their impact on CO2 and CO2e emissions, primary energy use, and air quality through 2030.

• In the Reference Scenario, CO2 emissions are projected to rise from 8,684 MMT in 2013 to 12,650 MMT by 2030, while CO2e emissions increase from 10,841 MMT to 17,468 MMT over the same period.
• The Accelerated Low Carbon (ALC) scenario is more aggressive than the Low Carbon (LC) scenario, peaking CO2 emissions in 2022 at 9,845 MMT compared to the LC scenario's peak in 2029 at 10,977 MMT.
• Carbon pricing is identified as the most powerful single policy for reducing emissions across both highlighted scenarios, contributing approximately 30% of total reductions.
• Regulatory policies, such as building codes and fuel economy standards, drive the majority of emissions reductions in both the LC and ALC scenarios, though pricing policies like carbon pricing remain dominant in their category.
• The industry sector is the largest source of CO2e emissions in China, accounting for 50% of emissions in 2030 under the Reference Scenario.
• Efficiency policies are the primary driver of emissions reductions, followed by clean energy policies, while demand management and direct emissions abatement have smaller impacts on CO2.
• The monetized social benefits of the proposed policies, which include avoided premature mortality from PM2.5 and avoided climate damages, significantly outweigh the costs of capital and operating expenditures. In the ALC scenario, social benefits reach RMB8.9 trillion (6.6% of projected GDP) by 2030.

APA

Qiang, L., Chuan, T., Xiaoqi, Z., Kejun, J., Chenmin, H., Harvey, H., Aggarwal, S., Busch, C., Rissman, J., Orvis, R., & Kennan, H. (2016). CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaPolicySolutions_ExecutiveSummary_EN.pdf

Chicago

Qiang, Liu, Tian Chuan, Zheng Xiaoqi, Jiang Kejun, He Chenmin, Hal Harvey, Sonia Aggarwal, et al. CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA. Energy Innovation, 2016. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaPolicySolutions_ExecutiveSummary_EN.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Qiang |first1=Liu |last2=Chuan |first2=Tian |last3=Xiaoqi |first3=Zheng |last4=Kejun |first4=Jiang |last5=Chenmin |first5=He |last6=Harvey |first6=Hal |last7=Aggarwal |first7=Sonia |last8=Busch |first8=Chris |last9=Rissman |first9=Jeffrey |display-authors=etal |title=CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=July 2016 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaPolicySolutions_ExecutiveSummary_EN.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{qiang2016climate, author = {Qiang, Liu and Chuan, Tian and Xiaoqi, Zheng and Kejun, Jiang and Chenmin, He and Harvey, Hal and Aggarwal, Sonia and Busch, Chris and Rissman, Jeffrey and Orvis, Robbie and Kennan, Hallie}, title = {{CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2016}, month = jul, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaPolicySolutions_ExecutiveSummary_EN.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }