CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA

The report analyzes 35 climate and energy policies for China using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), comparing a Reference Scenario (RS) with a Low Carbon (LC) and an Accelerated Low Carbon (ALC) scenario. It finds that carbon pricing, renewable energy standards, and enhanced building codes are among the most effective tools for reducing CO2e emissions. While the LC scenario aims to peak CO2 emissions between 2025 and 2030, the ALC scenario focuses on cost-effectiveness to peak CO2 as soon as possible, achieving a peak in 2022. The analysis highlights that regulatory policies generally drive the majority of emissions reductions, though carbon pricing has the highest overall abatement potential. The report recommends a carbon price of at least 60 RMB per ton, increased renewable energy targets beyond 30% by 2030, and the adoption of MOHURD One Star as the minimum building code standard.

• In the Reference Scenario, CO2 emissions are projected to rise from 8,684 MMT in 2013 to 12,650 MMT by 2030, while CO2e emissions increase from 10,841 MMT to 17,468 MMT over the same period.
• The Accelerated Low Carbon (ALC) scenario achieves a CO2 emissions peak in 2022 at 9,845 MMT, decreasing to 9,575 MMT by 2030, whereas the Low Carbon (LC) scenario peaks later in 2029 at 10,977 MMT.
• Carbon pricing is identified as the single most powerful policy for reducing emissions; in the ALC scenario, a price of 252 RMB per ton in 2030 contributes 96.51% of cross-sector CO2e reductions.
• Regulatory policies, such as building codes and fuel economy standards, drive the majority of emissions reductions in both the LC and ALC scenarios, though they are often more cost-effective (showing negative cost per ton) than pricing policies.
• The industry sector is the largest source of CO2e emissions, accounting for 50% of emissions in 2030 under the Reference Scenario.
• The ALC scenario results in social benefits of RMB 8.9 trillion in 2030 (6.6% of projected GDP), which significantly outweighs the net change in capital and operating expenditures of RMB 509 billion (0.38% of projected GDP).
• To maximize emissions reductions, the report recommends a carbon price of at least 60 RMB per ton and suggests increasing the renewable energy target beyond 30% by 2030.

APA

Qiang, L., Chuan, T., Xiaoqi, Z., Kejun, J., Chenmin, H., Harvey, H., Aggarwal, S., Busch, C., Rissman, J., Orvis, R., & Kennan, H. (2016). CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaPolicySolutions_ExecutiveSummary_EN.pdf

Chicago

Qiang, Liu, Tian Chuan, Zheng Xiaoqi, Jiang Kejun, He Chenmin, Hal Harvey, Sonia Aggarwal, et al. CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA. Energy Innovation, 2016. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaPolicySolutions_ExecutiveSummary_EN.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{qiang2016climate, author = {Qiang, Liu and Chuan, Tian and Xiaoqi, Zheng and Kejun, Jiang and Chenmin, He and Harvey, Hal and Aggarwal, Sonia and Busch, Chris and Rissman, Jeffrey and Orvis, Robbie and Kennan, Hallie}, title = {{CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2016}, month = jul, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/ChinaPolicySolutions_ExecutiveSummary_EN.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }