Introducing the Transnational Climate Impacts Index: Indicators of country-level exposure – methodology report

The report develops the Transnational Climate Impacts (TCI) Index to measure how countries are exposed to climate risks originating outside their borders. Using a framework of four risk pathways—biophysical, finance, people, and trade—alongside a global context indicator, the authors identify nine indicators of exposure. The resulting index reveals that many high-income, small European nations are highly exposed to transnational risks, contrasting with traditional vulnerability indices that primarily highlight low-income nations. The authors present this as a tool to raise awareness for national adaptation planning, though they note it is a preliminary instrument not yet intended for direct decision-making.

• The authors define transnational climate impacts as those that "occur in one place as a consequence of climate impacts somewhere else," distinguishing them from direct impacts that occur within a country's own borders.
• The framework identifies four primary pathways for the transmission of transnational climate risks: biophysical (e.g., transboundary river basins), finance (e.g., foreign direct investment and remittances), people (e.g., asylum and migration), and trade (e.g., supply chain disruptions and food import dependency).
• The TCI Index utilizes nine indicators: transboundary water dependency, bilateral climate-weighted foreign direct investment, remittance flows, openness to asylum, migration from climate vulnerable countries, trade openness, cereal import dependency ratio, embedded water risk, and the KOF Globalization Index.
• Analysis of the TCI Index shows that small industrialized nations in Europe—including the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Portugal, Montenegro, Malta, Austria, and Lithuania—exhibit high exposure to transnational impacts, despite often ranking low on direct vulnerability indices like ND-GAIN.
• The four highest-scoring countries on the TCI Index are located in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
• The TCI Index results demonstrate significantly less correlation with national wealth or human development than traditional climate vulnerability indices, suggesting that transnational risk is driven by complex, country-specific interdependencies rather than just poverty.
• The 'embedded water risk' indicator, developed using the IOTA model, reveals that countries like Afghanistan, China, India, Turkey, Nepal, Pakistan, and Central Asian states are highly dependent on commodities grown in water-stressed areas.
• The authors caution that the TCI Index is a "crude tool" intended to provoke discussion and raise awareness rather than to serve as a definitive basis for immediate policy decision-making.

APA

Benzie, M., Hedlund, J., & Carlsen, H. (2016). Introducing the Transnational Climate Impacts Index: Indicators of country-level exposure – methodology report. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/introducing-the-transnational-climate-impacts-index-indicators-of-country-level-exposure-methodology-report.pdf

Chicago

Benzie, Magnus, Johanna Hedlund, and Henrik Carlsen. Introducing the Transnational Climate Impacts Index: Indicators of country-level exposure – methodology report. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/introducing-the-transnational-climate-impacts-index-indicators-of-country-level-exposure-methodology-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Benzie |first1=Magnus |last2=Hedlund |first2=Johanna |last3=Carlsen |first3=Henrik |title=Introducing the Transnational Climate Impacts Index: Indicators of country-level exposure – methodology report |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/introducing-the-transnational-climate-impacts-index-indicators-of-country-level-exposure-methodology-report.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{benzie2016introducing, author = {Benzie, Magnus and Hedlund, Johanna and Carlsen, Henrik}, title = {{Introducing the Transnational Climate Impacts Index: Indicators of country-level exposure – methodology report}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/introducing-the-transnational-climate-impacts-index-indicators-of-country-level-exposure-methodology-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }