How would phasing out U.S. federal leases for fossil fuel extraction affect CO2 emissions and 2°C goals?

The research finds that phasing out U.S. federal fossil fuel leases could reduce global CO2 emissions by approximately 100 million tonnes per year by 2030. The impact is most immediate for coal, where it could leave 4 billion short tons of coal in the ground by 2040. Oil and gas impacts are more gradual due to longer project lead times, but could eventually leave 7 billion barrels of oil and 30 trillion cubic feet of gas undeveloped by 2040. The study concludes that such supply-side measures are a significant complement to demand-side policies like the Clean Power Plan in meeting Paris Agreement targets.

• Ceasing to issue new and renew non-producing federal leases for fossil fuel extraction could reduce net global CO2 emissions by approximately 100 million tonnes (Mt) per year by 2030.
• The emissions reduction from leasing restrictions is comparable to other Obama administration policies, such as fuel economy standards for light-duty (200 Mt) and medium/heavy-duty (70 Mt) vehicles in 2030.
• Restricting federal coal leasing could leave 4 billion short tons of coal in the ground between 2016 and 2040, which would otherwise result in 7 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 emissions.
• The impact on oil and gas is more gradual than coal due to longer lead times for project development; by 2040, this policy could leave 7 billion barrels of oil (3 Gt CO2) and 30 trillion cubic feet of gas (2 Gt CO2) undeveloped.
• Approximately 30% of the 2030 emissions benefits from leasing restrictions would occur outside the U.S., with the majority of oil-related reductions occurring in other countries due to the global nature of oil markets.
• In a 'lower-carbon world' scenario where other nations also limit supply and renewables are more available, the 2030 emissions impact of U.S. leasing restrictions could increase to 210 Mt CO2.

APA

Erickson, P., & Lazarus, M. (2016). How would phasing out U.S. federal leases for fossil fuel extraction affect CO2 emissions and 2°C goals? Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-02-US-fossilfuel-leases.pdf

Chicago

Erickson, Peter, and Michael Lazarus. How would phasing out U.S. federal leases for fossil fuel extraction affect CO2 emissions and 2°C goals? Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-02-US-fossilfuel-leases.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erickson |first1=Peter |last2=Lazarus |first2=Michael |title=How would phasing out U.S. federal leases for fossil fuel extraction affect CO2 emissions and 2°C goals? |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=May 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-02-US-fossilfuel-leases.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erickson2016how, author = {Erickson, Peter and Lazarus, Michael}, title = {{How would phasing out U.S. federal leases for fossil fuel extraction affect CO2 emissions and 2°C goals?}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-02-US-fossilfuel-leases.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }