Search Climate Insights Directory

This policy brief examines China's dominant role in Africa's critical minerals sector, highlighting the tension between increased investment and the lack of local value addition. It argues that while China's infrastructure-led approach and state support provide a competitive edge, African nations must shift from exporting raw materials to developing domestic processing and refining capabilities to avoid the 'resource curse' and benefit from the global energy transition.

This policy brief examines the global race to secure critical minerals for green and digital industrial revolutions, detailing the strategies of the US, EU, UK, Canada, and China. It argues that African countries can leverage their mineral wealth through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by adopting a 'climate-resilient developmental regionalism' approach to build regional value chains and achieve sustainable structural transformation.

This research paper examines the intersection of the G7's climate and energy agendas with South Africa's role as a representative for African interests. It analyzes the outcomes of the Italian G7 presidency, including the Energy for Growth in Africa Initiative and the Mattei Plan, while highlighting tensions over 'green protectionism' and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR-RC).

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the geopolitical competition between global powers—specifically the US, China, and Russia—within Africa. It argues that African states are increasingly pursuing a strategy of non-alignment and diversification to avoid becoming proxies in global disputes, seeking instead equal partnerships and autonomy. The paper suggests that African agency can be enhanced by strengthening the African Union (AU), diversifying international partnerships, and prioritizing internal economic integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area.

This research paper analyzes the tension in German foreign policy between corporate profit interests and value-based rhetoric, specifically regarding trade and investment in Africa. The author argues that Germany is shifting from a broad 'exportist' geoeconomic approach toward a more selective strategy focused on risk mitigation and the securing of critical resources, such as LNG and minerals, while urging a transition toward supporting African economic self-determination and regional industrialization.

This research paper analyzes the European Union's strategic partnerships with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to diversify critical raw material (CRM) supply chains and reduce dependence on China. It examines the geopolitical tensions between Western security agendas and the industrialization goals of the producing nations, while highlighting significant governance risks and the lack of comprehensive national CRM policies in the DRC and Zambia.

This research paper examines the negotiations surrounding the Loss and Damage Fund established at COP27, detailing the friction between developed and developing nations over the fund's governance, eligibility, and funding sources ahead of COP28.

This research paper examines the evolution of multilateralism through the lens of relations between the European Union (EU) and the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), particularly against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The author argues that a 'structural disjuncture' exists between the EU's preference for bilateral strategic partnerships and BRICS' pursuit of an inclusive, South-South multilateral model that challenges Western-led global governance and economic norms.

This research paper examines the evolving geopolitics of mineral supply chains, specifically how industrialised states are seeking to reduce dependencies on certain countries following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It focuses on the potential for African economies to benefit from this restructuring as the global transition to renewable energy increases the demand for critical minerals.

This research paper examines the evolution of German-African energy relations, tracing the shift from a primary focus on development cooperation and energy poverty to a more complex framework involving energy diplomacy, technology-driven cooperation, and strategic geopolitical interests. The author analyzes the tensions between 'green' and 'fossilist' objectives, the risks associated with the roll-out of hydrogen diplomacy, and the trend toward the financialization of development through multi-stakeholder partnerships.

This research paper by Dr. Toni Haastrup analyzes the strained relationship between the African Union (AU) and the European Union (EU), arguing that geopolitical tensions—specifically Russia's invasion of Ukraine—have marginalized Africa as a priority for the EU and reinforced historical power imbalances.

This research paper by Dr. Toni Haastrup analyzes the strained relations between the African Union (AU) and the European Union (EU), arguing that the Russia-Ukraine war has further marginalized African priorities and exacerbated a historical power imbalance. The author contends that the EU's shift toward geopolitical pragmatism, exemplified by the replacement of the African Peace Facility with the European Peace Facility, undermines African security architecture and risks pushing African nations toward other global partners.

This research paper argues that China is leveraging African dissatisfaction with Western paternalism and the current global order to strengthen its relations with African nations during the Ukraine conflict. The author suggests that the war is accelerating a shift toward multipolarity, allowing China to position itself as an alternative partner that respects national autonomy and non-interference, potentially boosting its Global Security Initiative and diplomatic influence across the continent.

This research paper examines the diverse responses of African nations to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and proposes four strategic options for the continent to advance its political, economic, and social interests amid the shifting geopolitical landscape.

This research paper argues that African policymakers must proactively secure digital sovereignty to prevent the continent's digital economy from becoming a battleground for great-power competition. While Africa possesses significant digital potential with a market of over 1 billion people, it remains the least connected region globally and relies heavily on foreign infrastructure, leaving it vulnerable to the unilateral decisions of global tech giants and the geopolitical interests of major powers.

This report consists of a series of expert commentaries analyzing the global geopolitical and domestic implications of the January 6 Capitol Hill attacks. The contributors discuss how the event affected the perception of U.S. democracy and influenced the foreign policies and internal political dynamics of the United Kingdom, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and India.

This policy brief examines how the European Union (EU) Green Deal operationalizes the concept of 'just transition' through a territorial approach. It analyzes the use of the Just Transition Mechanism (JTM) to engage subnational carbon-intensive regions, aiming to bypass national-level political resistance to carbon neutrality by 2050. The author identifies several risks, including the potential for national governments to block funding, the lack of monitoring for vulnerable groups, and the need for the EU to address the global geopolitical impacts of decarbonization on fossil fuel-producing countries.

This policy brief examines the tension between fossil fuel development and renewable energy transitions in Africa, highlighting the geopolitical competition between China's Belt and Road Initiative and the EU's 'green transitions' strategy. It argues that for the EU to effectively partner with African nations, it must shift its framing from climate change to energy security and economic development, while promoting transparency and social innovation to avoid foreign exploitation and 'debt traps'.

This research paper examines the immediate and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Africa, arguing that the crisis accelerates the decline of the liberal international order and increases the vulnerability of smaller nations. The author outlines five key long-term risks—the unravelling of multilateralism, increased trade protectionism, the decline of development cooperation, a potential retreat from climate goals, and restricted human mobility—and proposes a coordinated African response focused on regional integration and proactive global governance reform.

This research paper examines Turkey's strategic efforts to expand its influence in North and East Africa to counter regional isolation and secure energy interests. It focuses on Turkey's military and political support for the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya, its diplomatic tensions with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and France over Mediterranean exclusive economic zones, and its broader 'Open to Africa' policy exemplified by its deep involvement in Somalia.