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229 results
Allocation and Forecasting of Global Ship Emissions
The report develops a high-resolution global inventory of ship emissions (SOx, NOx, PM, and black carbon) using power-weighted ICOADS data. It argues that a business-as-usual (BAU) growth rate of 4.1% per year, driven by trade globalization and containerization, will likely offset current IMO emission control measures. The authors conclude that fleetwide reductions of at least 60% would be required within two decades to maintain 2002 pollution levels.
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Document type: Report
Plugging In Renewable Energy
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) graded U.S. states on their commitment to renewable energy, finding that 34 states received failing grades (D or F) and only 16 passed. While 19 states have enacted standards or funds projected to add 15,215 MW of capacity by 2017, the gains are highly concentrated, with California and Texas accounting for nearly 60 percent of forecasted new development. The report argues that current state-level efforts are insufficient compared to the technical potential of wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal, and landfill gas, and advocates for a national renewable electricity standard to achieve more equitable and cost-effective energy generation.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary
The Senate Budget Committee's version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is projected to significantly reduce U.S. electricity generation capacity by 2035, primarily through the repeal of clean energy tax credits and the introduction of a new excise tax on wind and solar facilities. These policies are forecast to increase wholesale electricity prices by 61 percent by 2035 and raise residential, commercial, and industrial electricity rates by 9 to 16 percent. The resulting decline in energy resource deployment and advanced manufacturing is expected to cost the U.S. $960 billion in GDP over the budget window and lead to job losses peaking at 900,000 in 2032.
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Document type: Briefing
African Futures
The African Futures platform, powered by the International Futures modelling tool from the University of Denver, provides forecasts for every African country and region through 2043. It analyzes 17 thematic areas, including climate change and energy, and compares a 'Current Path' against eight thematic scenarios and a combined Agenda 2063 scenario to simulate the impact of policy interventions.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Refreshing Africa's future: prospects for achieving universal WASH access by 2030
The research paper evaluates Africa's progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 6 (universal WASH access by 2030). Using the International Futures forecasting system, it concludes that the continent is not on track to meet this target. To address this gap, the paper analyzes two scenarios: an aggressive push toward universal access and a moderate approach based on 2015 baselines.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa's Futures
Africa is experiencing rapid population growth and urbanisation, with a projected population of over 1.8 billion by 2035. While the continent shows a positive overall trend, growth is heterogeneous and often outpaced by population increases, leading to a projected rise in the number of people living in extreme poverty. The report highlights a 'demographic dividend' that remains delayed due to high fertility rates, and notes that while global democratic trends are declining, popular support for democracy in Africa remains strong despite fragile foundations. Security is shifting from large-scale interstate conflicts toward more complex, lower-fatality violence, including urban riots and terrorism. Economic growth is hindered by a lack of structural transformation and a significant infrastructure deficit, particularly in basic services like water and sanitation, which the report argues are more critical for poverty reduction than traditional trade infrastructure.
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Document type: Report
Reinventing Fire Transportation Sector Methodology
The Reinventing Fire transportation analysis evaluates efficiency pathways for U.S. autos, heavy trucks, and airplanes through 2050. It distinguishes between 'Improved Design' (technological upgrades) and 'Improved Use' (reducing vehicle-miles traveled), while incorporating a consumer adoption model for high-efficiency vehicles and a supply-cost model for inedible biofuels. The methodology integrates these findings into an economy-wide model to calculate net present value savings, estimating a total net saving of $3,757 billion in 2009 dollars.
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Document type: Report
Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios
The fact sheet outlines three scenarios: a Baseline scenario (BAS) where business-as-usual leads to a 98% likelihood of temperatures increasing by more than 2°C; a Basic Energy Access scenario (BEA) that provides basic energy for all while limiting global GHG emissions to 1,300 Gt CO2; and a Shared Development Agenda scenario (SDA) which aims for a more balanced global income distribution with per capita incomes of at least $10,000 for all nations by 2050.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Charging toward 2035: Policies to accelerate zero-emission heavy-duty trucks in China’s regional and long-haul freight
The study analyzes the adoption potential of zero-emission heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) in China, finding that while regional delivery trucks may become cost-competitive by 2030–34 without policy, long-haul trucking will remain nascent through 2035. It recommends segment-specific targets, such as a 33–57 percent adoption target for regional delivery tractor trailers by 2030, and identifies a 50 percent reduction in road charges as the most effective policy for acceleration.
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Document type: Research paper