Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary

This briefing by Energy Innovation analyzes the economic impacts of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee's version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," released on June 28th. The analysis forecasts that the bill's energy provisions—including a new excise tax on wind and solar, the repeal of clean energy tax credits, and increased oil and gas leasing—will lead to significant decreases in electricity generation capacity, higher power prices for consumers, and substantial losses in GDP and employment.

• The Senate Budget text of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is projected to cause a 300 gigawatt decrease in generation capacity by 2035. This loss is primarily driven by wind, which would see about 210 GW less capacity, and solar, with 110 GW less capacity. Additionally, 10 GW fewer grid batteries would be installed. While 30 GW of additional natural gas capacity is foreseen by 2035, supply chain issues are expected to prevent any additional gas buildout in the next five years.
• The bill is expected to significantly increase electricity prices. Wholesale electricity prices are forecast to rise by 19 percent by 2030 and 61 percent by 2035. Total wholesale electricity costs would increase from $160 billion in 2035 under current policies to $250 billion under the Senate Budget scenario. Consequently, electricity rates for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers are expected to increase by 9 to 16 percent.
• The energy provisions in the Senate Budget bill are projected to cause substantial economic decline, including annual GDP losses of $130 billion by 2030 and $100 billion by 2035, totaling a $960 billion loss in GDP over the budget window. Employment is also expected to drop, with job losses of 770,000 by 2030, peaking at 900,000 in 2032, and then shrinking to 650,000 in 2035.
• Household energy bills are projected to increase by approximately $160 annually by 2030 due to the Senate Budget text, though this is noted as being ameliorated by the Byrd exclusion of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency tailpipe rule repeals. Some states may see electricity increases exceeding $400 per year by 2035.

APA

Energy Innovation (n.d.). Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Budget-Analysis_June-2025.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary. n.d. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Budget-Analysis_June-2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Budget-Analysis_June-2025.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovationndeconomic, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Budget-Analysis_June-2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }