Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios

The fact sheet outlines three scenarios: a Baseline scenario (BAS) where business-as-usual leads to a 98% likelihood of temperatures increasing by more than 2°C; a Basic Energy Access scenario (BEA) that provides basic energy for all while limiting global GHG emissions to 1,300 Gt CO2; and a Shared Development Agenda scenario (SDA) which aims for a more balanced global income distribution with per capita incomes of at least $10,000 for all nations by 2050.

• Under the Baseline scenario (BAS), global energy demand is projected to increase from 365 exajoules (EJ) in 2010 to 775 EJ by 2050, with CO2 emissions rising to 152% above 1990 levels by 2050. This path results in a 98% likelihood that global average temperatures will increase by more than 2°C. By 2050, 65% of primary energy use will occur in the developing world, compared to more than 66% in the developed world in 1990.
• The Basic Energy Access scenario (BEA) limits global GHG emissions to 1,300 Gt CO2 between 2000 and 2050 to achieve a 60% chance of keeping global warming under 2°C. In this scenario, primary energy use peaks at 575 EJ in 2020 before declining to 441 EJ by 2050, and CO2 emissions decrease by 92% compared with 1990 levels by 2050. The energy mix shifts toward renewables, with electricity generation from wind, solar, and other renewables increasing by a factor of 8.8, and CCS-based generation providing almost 20% of electricity by 2050.
• The Shared Development Agenda scenario (SDA) assumes all nations reach per capita incomes of at least $10,000 (in 2005 purchasing power parity terms) by 2050. This leads to sharp energy demand increases in Africa and South Asia, though global energy demand in 2050 is only 11% (33.5 EJ) higher than in the BEA scenario due to reductions in energy use in Canada and the U.S. To meet these targets, energy intensities must decline by 2.8% per year, reaching 32% of 2010 values by 2050.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-Energy-Scenarios-factsheet-Jun2012.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios. n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-Energy-Scenarios-factsheet-Jun2012.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-Energy-Scenarios-factsheet-Jun2012.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendenergy, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-Energy-Scenarios-factsheet-Jun2012.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }