Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios

This fact sheet from the Stockholm Environment Institute outlines three energy scenarios from 2009 to 2050: a Baseline scenario (BAS) reflecting business-as-usual trends, a Basic Energy Access scenario (BEA) focusing on universal basic energy access and climate constraints, and a Shared Development Agenda scenario (SDA) which aims for more balanced global income distribution and extensive development in poor regions.

• The Baseline scenario (BAS) assumes current economic and energy policies continue without major climate efforts, leading to global energy demand increasing from 365 exajoules (EJ) in 2010 to 775 EJ by 2050. Under this scenario, global CO2 emissions are projected to rise to 152% above 1990 levels by 2050, creating a 98% likelihood that global average temperatures will increase by more than 2°C. Primary energy use remains dominated by coal, oil, and gas, which rise from 81% of the total in 2010 to 83% in 2050.
• The Basic Energy Access scenario (BEA) aims for universal household lighting, heating, and cooking by 2050 while limiting global GHG emissions to 1,300 Gt CO2 between 2000 and 2050. In this scenario, primary energy use peaks at 575 EJ in 2020 before declining to 441 EJ by 2050, and global CO2 emissions decrease by 92% compared with 1990 levels by 2050. The energy mix shifts toward renewables, with electricity generation from wind, solar, and other renewables increasing by a factor of 8.8, and CCS-based generation from coal and natural gas providing almost 20% of electricity by 2050.
• The Shared Development Agenda scenario (SDA) builds on the BEA scenario by assuming all nations reach per capita incomes of at least $10,000 (2005 PPP) by 2050. This leads to sharp energy demand increases in Africa and South Asia due to rapid income growth and demand for productive uses like industry. To meet these targets, energy intensities must decline by 2.8% per year to reach 32% of the 2010 value by 2050, which may require massive efficiency investments and lifestyle changes in wealthier countries.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-Energy-Scenarios-factsheet-Jun2012.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios. n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-Energy-Scenarios-factsheet-Jun2012.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-Energy-Scenarios-factsheet-Jun2012.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendenergy, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-Energy-Scenarios-factsheet-Jun2012.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }