Reinventing Fire Transportation Sector Methodology

The Reinventing Fire (RF) transportation analysis outlines a methodology to estimate the techno-economic potential for efficiency gains in the U.S. transportation sector from 2010 to 2050. The report details modeling approaches for four subsectors—autos, heavy trucks, airplanes, and remaining sectors—focusing on 'Improved Design' and 'Improved Use' pathways to reduce fossil fuel consumption. It also includes a model for biofuel supply and cost, and calculates the overall societal net present value of these transitions.

• The analysis divides the U.S. transportation sector into four subsectors: autos, heavy trucks, airplanes, and 'remaining sectors', which include rail, military, pipeline, commercial light trucks (medium-duty vehicles), buses, domestic mail shipments, and recreational boats.
• For automobiles, the methodology compares three vehicle classes for 2050: a baseline EIA vehicle (38 mpg for cars, 30 mpg for light trucks), an 'Evolutionary' vehicle (52 mpg for cars, 40 mpg for light trucks), and a 'Revolutionary' battery-electric or fuel cell vehicle (239 mpg-e for cars, 193 mpg-e for light trucks).
• The consumer adoption model for autos assumes that mass-market consumers will only purchase a more efficient vehicle if the incremental cost is paid back in fuel savings within three years. To drive the adoption of 'Revolutionary' vehicles, the model proposes a size- and revenue-neutral feebate that would be phased out 10–15 years after introduction.
• The analysis identifies a potential 67% cumulative reduction in heavy truck fuel consumption by 2050 through a sequence of design and use improvements, including a 30% technology-based efficiency gain over the EIA 2010 baseline, operational improvements, logistical improvements, double trailers, and intermodal shifts.
• Aviation efficiency is modeled through new designs for narrowbody, widebody, and regional jets, including advanced configurations like blended wing body (BWB) and strut-braced wing (SBW). The model assumes a 54% fleetwide efficiency gain by 2050, with use-related improvements adding further reductions through operational changes, trip passenger reductions, and load factor improvements.
• The biofuel model focuses on five categories of inedible feedstock: agricultural residue, mill residue, dedicated energy crops, municipal solid waste, and forestry residue. It explicitly excludes edible feedstocks to avoid adverse effects on world food markets.
• The total estimated net savings for the RF transportation scenario is $3,757 billion (2009$ NPV), with the largest savings coming from autos ($2,560 billion net) and trucks ($851 billion net), offset by investments in infrastructure and use strategies.

APA

RMI (n.d.). Reinventing Fire Transportation Sector Methodology. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/reinventingfire_transportationsectormethodology.pdf

Chicago

RMI. Reinventing Fire Transportation Sector Methodology. n.d. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/reinventingfire_transportationsectormethodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Reinventing Fire Transportation Sector Methodology |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/reinventingfire_transportationsectormethodology.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmindreinventing, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Reinventing Fire Transportation Sector Methodology}}, institution = {RMI}, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/reinventingfire_transportationsectormethodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }