Allocation and Forecasting of Global Ship Emissions

The report develops a high-resolution global inventory of ship emissions (SOx, NOx, PM, and black carbon) using power-weighted ICOADS data. It argues that a business-as-usual (BAU) growth rate of 4.1% per year, driven by trade globalization and containerization, will likely offset current IMO emission control measures. The authors conclude that fleetwide reductions of at least 60% would be required within two decades to maintain 2002 pollution levels.

• The report establishes a 2002 baseline for global ship emissions, estimating total annual emissions of 5,000,000 metric tons of NOx (N), 4,720,000 metric tons of SOx (S), 176,000,000 metric tons of CO2 (C), and 1,190,000 metric tons of PM10.
• The authors identify a business-as-usual (BAU) growth rate for ship energy and emissions of 4.1% CAGR, which is consistent with world seaborne trade growth.
• Analysis of the world fleet from 1970 to 2003 shows that installed power has grown faster than global trade, suggesting that ocean shipping has become more energy intensive due to globalization and the need for larger, faster ships for just-in-time liner schedules.
• Current IMO policies are insufficient to reduce emissions in the short term; the report states that emission reductions in the 60% range would only offset growth through 2030.
• To maintain global shipping pollution levels from 2002, controls reducing fleetwide emissions by at least 60% would need to be fully implemented for both new and existing engines within twenty years.
• The report finds that NOx emissions growth has exceeded the reductions achieved by IMO-compliant fleet turnover since 2000, largely because of low vessel scrappage rates.
• Under a 4.1% CAGR, a global 1.5% fuel-sulfur limit implemented in 2010 would only offset trade growth until approximately 2017 to 2022, whereas a 0.5% limit would offset growth into the early 2040s.
• The study utilizes the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) as a spatial proxy, improving it by weighting observations with ship installed power to better represent emissions in ocean-shipping lanes versus coastal routes.

APA

Corbett, J. J., Wang, C., Winebrake, J. J., & Green, E. (2007). Allocation and Forecasting of Global Ship Emissions. Clean Air Task Force. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/21093051/INF-3-catf_emission_inventory-1.pdf

Chicago

Corbett, James J., Chengfeng Wang, James J. Winebrake, and Erin Green. Allocation and Forecasting of Global Ship Emissions. Clean Air Task Force, 2007. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/21093051/INF-3-catf_emission_inventory-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Corbett |first1=James J. |last2=Wang |first2=Chengfeng |last3=Winebrake |first3=James J. |last4=Green |first4=Erin |title=Allocation and Forecasting of Global Ship Emissions |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=11 January 2007 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/21093051/INF-3-catf_emission_inventory-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{corbett2007allocation, author = {Corbett, James J. and Wang, Chengfeng and Winebrake, James J. and Green, Erin}, title = {{Allocation and Forecasting of Global Ship Emissions}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2007}, month = jan, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/21093051/INF-3-catf_emission_inventory-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }