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The document examines the limited role of African countries and LDCs in G20 decision-making and proposes mechanisms to enhance their agency. It highlights how the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated vulnerabilities in these regions, leading to the worst economic outcome in thirty years for LDCs. The author suggests creating a formal outreach mechanism with longer-term representation to ensure continuity and mainstreaming LDC inputs across G20 workstreams, including climate and finance. Key priority themes identified include rethinking vulnerability metrics beyond per capita GDP, ensuring a 'just transition' that balances green recovery with immediate social needs, and reforming the financial architecture to provide more fiscal space and fairer capital market access.

China faces significant economic vulnerability to climate-induced floods and heatwaves, with potential cumulative GDP losses between 6.6% and 23.5% by 2048 depending on global warming levels. The eastern and coastal provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang are particularly at risk, which could trigger global supply chain disruptions given their role as hubs for electrical manufacturing, cement, and shipping. Projections indicate that river floods could cause cumulative losses of USD 479 billion by 2035, with indirect costs often exceeding direct damages. Additionally, heatwaves are expected to reduce working capacity in key manufacturing regions by up to 2.04% under a >3°C scenario, driven by health-related productivity losses and reduced cognitive performance.

The report contends that Poland's proposed expansion of electricity-only gas plants is out of step with climate modelling and faces significant regulatory and financial risks from EU policies. It highlights that the EU's 'Fit for 55' package, the EU Methane Strategy, and the EU taxonomy could increase operational costs, restrict funding from the Modernisation Fund, and block financing for projects that do not meet strict emissions criteria. Modelling suggests Poland could meet electricity demand with a maximum gas capacity of 6 GW between 2025 and 2030, far less than currently planned, risking a lock-in of gas dependency beyond 2050.

The document examines the viability of nuclear energy in Africa, noting that the continent provides 14% of global uranium supply. It identifies Russia and China as leading international vendors due to their state-owned models and willingness to provide financing. The paper highlights significant barriers to deployment, including high costs, corruption, unstable electrical grids, and a lack of local expertise. It also discusses the potential of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to mitigate some of these infrastructure and financial challenges.

The authors advocate for the transition from global to regional value chains in Africa, emphasizing that digital transformation—specifically through blockchain, AI, and IoT—is essential to overcome high trade costs, poor infrastructure, and inefficient customs procedures. The paper highlights the AfCFTA as a critical framework for this shift, noting that while Africa currently exports raw materials with little value addition (e.g., coffee and cocoa), digital tools can enable MSMEs and women-led businesses to scale and integrate into more productive regional networks.

The document contends that continued investment in US gas distribution infrastructure is counterproductive to climate goals, as the transition to electric appliances will likely leave these systems underutilized. It argues that low-carbon gases like hydrogen and biomethane are too expensive for residential and commercial use and should be reserved for industrial applications. Furthermore, it suggests that electrification and targeted leak detection are more cost-effective ways to reduce methane emissions than massive pipeline replacement programs, which risk creating stranded assets and imposing high costs on consumers.

The Institute for Economic Justice argues that South Africa's initial R500 billion COVID-19 relief package was insufficient and poorly implemented, with only 41% (R207 billion) spent. The brief highlights severe economic vulnerabilities, particularly in construction, manufacturing, and the informal sector, and notes that South Africa spent only 4% of its GDP on relief, compared to a G20 average of 10%. To mitigate the third wave's impact, the IEJ proposes a R71.2 billion package over three months, focusing on sector-specific grants, tax relief, wage support via TERS, and expanded social grants.

The paper advocates for the adoption of nuclear power in Africa to combat energy poverty and meet climate goals, noting that nuclear energy is a zero-emission source with a high capacity factor. It addresses safety concerns by comparing death rates and highlighting new reactor designs, while suggesting that Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) could mitigate high upfront costs and long construction times. The author emphasizes the need for robust national regulatory frameworks and international cooperation through bodies like the IAEA and FNRBA to ensure safety and security.

The report examines the implementation of a border carbon adjustment (BCA) in Canada to mitigate 'leakage'—where emissions-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) sectors relocate or are undercut by foreign competitors with lower carbon costs. It proposes two primary design paths: a regulation-based BCA extending the existing output-based pricing system (OBPS) or a tax-based BCA accompanying a full carbon tax. The authors identify 11 high-risk product categories, including bitumen and synthetic crude oil, which represent 34% of Canada's GHG emissions. The report analyzes the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the U.S. approach, noting that while the U.S. lacks a national carbon price, it may use low-carbon standards or Section 232 tariffs. Key recommendations include coordinating with the EU and U.S. to harmonize benchmarks and ensuring the system is 'future-proofed' to accommodate a transition from the OBPS to full carbon pricing.

The report examines the state of women's entrepreneurship in Africa, contrasting the 'market women' in the informal sector with a small cadre of successful formal entrepreneurs. It criticizes South Africa's proposed Women Empowerment and Gender Equality Bill, arguing that enforced numerical parity is an ineffective approach to empowerment. Instead, the author advocates for improving general business environments, prioritizing girls' education, and reforming laws regarding property and inheritance rights to support all entrepreneurs.

The document analyzes how free emission allowances under the EU ETS led to up to 50 billion euros in windfall profits for energy-intensive industries between 2008 and 2019. It challenges the 'carbon leakage' justification for these allowances, noting a lack of evidence for industrial relocation. The author recommends transitioning to full auctioning of permits and utilizing the resulting revenues for climate innovation and a just transition.

The document contends that Africa's historical 'jobless growth' is due to a dependence on primary commodities and a lack of structural transformation. It proposes a shift from 'stabilization' to 'transformation' by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies with sectoral and labour market interventions. Key recommendations include increasing public investment in the care economy and infrastructure, implementing expenditure-switching methods to reduce import reliance, adopting progressive taxation, and establishing national minimum wages to boost domestic demand and productivity.

The document examines how the global shift toward low-carbon energy, driven by the Paris Agreement, creates a risk of stranded assets for fossil fuel-dependent African nations. While this transition threatens export revenues and economic stability, it offers opportunities through increased demand for critical minerals like cobalt and copper. The author argues for a 'just transition' that avoids premature deindustrialisation and leverages fossil fuel revenues for economic diversification and green industrialisation.

The report examines the intersection of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), noting that while BRI infrastructure investments can support AfCFTA goals, a lack of coordinated African strategy poses risks. It highlights China's incentive to access the AfCFTA's massive consumer market while warning that cheap Chinese imports could undermine the free trade area's objectives.

The document examines the transition of the mining sector from diesel and grid power to renewable energy (RE), primarily solar PV and wind. It argues that while RE has high initial capital expenditure, it offers lower long-term operating costs and provides a hedge against volatile fuel prices. The paper highlights the role of hybrid systems and energy storage in overcoming the intermittency of RE to meet the constant baseload demands of mines. It also explores the potential for portable RE systems for exploration sites and the use of rehabilitated mine land for utility-scale RE generation.

The document outlines the current state and future potential of onshore and offshore wind energy in the U.S. It details the economic benefits, including job growth and rural revenue, while addressing environmental impacts on wildlife. It specifically highlights the 'high electrification' scenario from Net-Zero America, projecting significant capacity increases and employment growth by 2050, particularly in states like Texas and the Midwest.

The report estimates that Brazil could significantly increase agricultural output without further deforestation by investing in farm equipment and operational costs, noting substantial regional variation in these requirements.

The document examines the state of agricultural value chains in the SADC region, noting that while the sector was minimally affected by COVID-19 compared to others, the pandemic exacerbated existing vulnerabilities. Key challenges identified include a heavy reliance on subsistence farming, food insecurity, and the impact of climate change. The brief argues for a 'dual approach' that supports both small-scale and large-scale commercial farming, the adoption of climate-smart technologies, digitalization of value chains, and the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to enhance regional trade and food security.

The document examines how climate change increases post-harvest losses in Kenya and Uganda through heightened pest and disease pressure, and proposes hermetic storage technologies (HSTs) as a solution to improve food security and farmer livelihoods.

Between 2008 and 2019, fifteen CO2-intensive industrial sectors in nineteen EU countries earned estimated additional profits between €30 billion and over €50 billion from the EU ETS. These profits were derived from three primary sources: the overallocation of free emission allowances, the use of cheaper international credits (CERs/ERUs) for compliance, and the passing through of opportunity costs of free allowances into product prices. The iron and steel sector was the largest beneficiary, with profits ranging from €11.9 billion to €16.1 billion. In contrast, the aviation sector experienced a net loss of €151.2 million due to the need to purchase allowances. The report argues that free allocation may no longer be fit for purpose and recommends increasing the share of auctioning combined with targeted investment subsidies or a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to reduce windfall profits and encourage decarbonization.