China’s BRI and the AfCFTA: Potential Overlaps, Complementarities and Challenges

The report examines the intersection of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), noting that while BRI infrastructure investments can support AfCFTA goals, a lack of coordinated African strategy poses risks. It highlights China's incentive to access the AfCFTA's massive consumer market while warning that cheap Chinese imports could undermine the free trade area's objectives.

• The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has provided significant infrastructure support to African nations, including projects like Kenya's Standard Gauge Railway, the Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia Transport Corridor, and Nigeria's Lekki Port, which have reduced trade costs.
• As of January 30, 2021, 46 African countries had signed cooperation documents with China regarding the BRI. By the end of 2019, Africa was the second-largest recipient of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks, representing 17% of the total.
• The AfCFTA represents a massive market of 1.3 billion people across 55 African Union member states with a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion. Projections suggest it could lift 30 million people out of poverty by 2035 and result in combined consumer and business spending power of $6.7 trillion by 2030.
• China has a strong incentive to engage with the AfCFTA to sell goods and expand e-commerce; however, there is a risk that flooding the market with cheap Chinese goods could undermine the AfCFTA's goals.
• While the BRI and AfCFTA overlap, their complementarities remain unclear due to a lack of coordinated strategic engagement from African nations, which may lead to opportunity costs and economic risks.
• The success of the AfCFTA is hindered by challenges such as political instability, border bureaucracy, and poor infrastructure, areas where BRI financing could potentially provide value if properly coordinated.

APA

FU, Y., & EGUEGU, O. (2021). China’s BRI and the AfCFTA: Potential Overlaps, Complementarities and Challenges. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Policy-Insights-113-fu-eguegu.pdf

Chicago

FU, YIKE, and OVIGWE EGUEGU. China’s BRI and the AfCFTA: Potential Overlaps, Complementarities and Challenges. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2021. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Policy-Insights-113-fu-eguegu.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=FU |first1=YIKE |last2=EGUEGU |first2=OVIGWE |title=China’s BRI and the AfCFTA: Potential Overlaps, Complementarities and Challenges |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Policy-Insights-113-fu-eguegu.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fu2021chinas, author = {FU, YIKE and EGUEGU, OVIGWE}, title = {{China’s BRI and the AfCFTA: Potential Overlaps, Complementarities and Challenges}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Policy-Insights-113-fu-eguegu.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }