Stepping on the Gas

The report contends that Poland's proposed expansion of electricity-only gas plants is out of step with climate modelling and faces significant regulatory and financial risks from EU policies. It highlights that the EU's 'Fit for 55' package, the EU Methane Strategy, and the EU taxonomy could increase operational costs, restrict funding from the Modernisation Fund, and block financing for projects that do not meet strict emissions criteria. Modelling suggests Poland could meet electricity demand with a maximum gas capacity of 6 GW between 2025 and 2030, far less than currently planned, risking a lock-in of gas dependency beyond 2050.

• Poland's proposed gas projects face economic risks due to volatile gas prices and the low cost of renewable power generation, making long-term economic justification unlikely.
• EU regulatory frameworks, specifically the EU Methane Strategy and the EU taxonomy, threaten to increase costs and block financing for Polish gas projects. The EU taxonomy's proposed limit of 270 g CO2/kWh for financing would effectively block support for non-CHP projects, which comprise 70% of Poland's proposed gas capacity additions.
• The 'Fit for 55' package and EU-ETS reforms are expected to raise operational costs for gas plants through higher emission allowance prices and restrict access to the Modernisation Fund, for which Poland currently qualifies for 43.4% of the funds.
• Modelling by Instrat indicates that Poland can transition from coal by 2035 with a maximum total gas capacity of 6 GW from 2025 to 2030, with generation peaking at 30 TWh in 2025 and falling to 9 TWh by 2040.
• The current trajectory of gas investment in Poland lacks a phase-out plan or requirements for hydrogen compatibility, which may lock the country into gas dependency beyond 2050 and prevent the achievement of net-zero.

APA

Ember (2021). Stepping on the Gas. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/stepping-on-the-gas

Chicago

Ember. Stepping on the Gas. 2021. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/stepping-on-the-gas.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Stepping on the Gas |date=20 September 2021 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/stepping-on-the-gas |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2021stepping, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Stepping on the Gas}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/stepping-on-the-gas}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }