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Billion-dollar disasters in 2022
The U.S. has seen a steady increase in the frequency and cost of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters since 1980. In 2022, by September 30, the country had already experienced 15 such events totaling $29.3 billion in losses, exceeding the historical annual average of seven. The time between these disasters has shrunk from 82 days in the 1980s to an average of 18 days between 2017 and 2021, reducing the time available for recovery and preparation. While hurricanes are the most costly event type, the overall trend of increasing extremes is linked to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, with projections suggesting further intensity without rapid emissions cuts.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Le Canada doit plafonner ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre dans le secteur pétrogazier
The Canadian Climate Institute advocates for a mandatory emissions cap on the oil and gas sector, noting that emissions in this sector grew by nearly 20% between 2005 and 2019. The author argues that current policies are insufficient and that failure to act risks creating 'stranded' high-carbon assets that will increase costs for taxpayers. To be effective, the proposed cap must focus on absolute emission reductions rather than just emission intensity, limit the use of carbon offsets, and not replace the urgent need to reduce methane emissions. Additionally, the policy should utilize market-based instruments like carbon pricing to maintain competitiveness and prevent carbon leakage to other jurisdictions.
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Document type: Statement
Why Canada’s Energy Security Hinges on Renewables
The document asserts that Canada's reliance on oil, gas, and coal leaves it vulnerable to global market volatility and geopolitical shocks, despite being a major producer. It argues that renewable energy sources like wind and solar are now more cost-effective than fossil fuels and can provide long-term price stability because they do not require input fuels. The brief highlights Canada's existing hydroelectric capacity as a key asset for balancing variable renewables and suggests that electrifying transport and heating will further reduce exposure to fossil fuel price spikes. It concludes that prioritizing investments in flexible, integrated electricity grids and energy efficiency is essential for achieving a non-emitting electricity grid by 2035 and ensuring affordable energy security.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Bottom Line: Why Canada’s Energy Security Hinges on Renewables
The document asserts that Canada's reliance on oil, gas, and coal exposes it to global market volatility and geopolitical risks, as evidenced by record-high fuel prices in 2022. It argues that renewable energy sources like wind and solar are now more cost-effective than fossil fuels and provide long-term price stability because they do not require input fuels. The brief highlights Canada's existing hydroelectric capacity and transmission infrastructure as key assets for integrating variable renewables. It recommends accelerating the electrification of transportation and heating, improving interprovincial grid connectivity, and investing in energy storage to achieve a non-emitting electricity grid by 2035.
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Document type: Policy brief
Why Government Support for Decarbonizing Oil and Gas Is a Bad Investment
The document contends that the Canadian oil and gas industry has sufficient windfall profits to fund its own decarbonization and that public subsidies for the sector, particularly for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), create significant opportunity costs. It highlights that previous government supports have sometimes increased overall emissions by enabling higher production. The authors advocate for shifting public investment toward proven low-carbon technologies like wind, solar, and energy efficiency to meet Canada's 2030 climate targets.
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Document type: Policy brief
Driving Digital Inclusion Within the AfCFTA Framework
The paper examines the 'digital Grand Canyon' in Africa, identifying infrastructural, financial, and regulatory barriers to internet connectivity. It highlights the disproportionate impact of the digital divide on women and youth and proposes a combination of top-down government strategies and bottom-up market initiatives to foster inclusion. The authors argue that the AfCFTA framework should be used to harmonise digital trade rules, encourage diverse infrastructure financing, and implement comprehensive digital upskilling to ensure the continent's participation in the 4th Industrial Revolution.
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Document type: Research paper
Damage control
The report finds that climate change acts as an economic drag on Canada, potentially reducing GDP by 12% and household incomes by 18% by the end of the century. Low-income households are disproportionately affected, facing a potential 23% income loss. However, the document asserts that combining proactive adaptation measures with global emissions reductions can reduce total real GDP losses by 75%, with adaptation investments yielding a return of $13-$15 for every $1 spent.
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Document type: Executive summary
Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040
Algeria's trade is heavily dominated by hydrocarbons, which accounted for 94% of exports in 2017. The country faces significant obstacles to industrialisation and diversification due to the influence of politically connected importers and a lack of regional economic integration within the Maghreb. While the European Union remains its primary trading partner, substantial informal trade exists with Tunisia and Mali, driven by tax and subsidy differentials.
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Document type: Report
Can Indonesia really achieve a net zero power sector by 2040?
The document argues that Indonesia can technically achieve a net zero power sector by 2040, which would accelerate the broader national net zero target to 2050. This transition requires phasing out unabated coal, significantly increasing annual electricity investment to USD 40 billion this decade and USD 80 billion in the next, and addressing grid flexibility and inter-regional connectivity. While the transition would result in a net gain of 265,000 jobs, it would cause 230,000 losses in coal mining, necessitating just energy transition policies. The author notes that Presidential Regulation No. 112/2022 is a positive step toward attracting renewable investment and retiring coal plants.
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Document type: Briefing
Transforming Trucking in India
The document outlines the potential for zero-emissions trucks (ZETs) to reduce India's oil imports, air pollution, and carbon emissions by 2050. It highlights that medium-duty ZETs already have a lower total cost of ownership than diesel trucks, with heavy-duty parity expected by 2027.
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Document type: Report
BURNING THE PUBLIC
The report argues that the gas industry is pushing hydrogen heating to avoid a 'death spiral' as consumers switch to electric heat pumps. It claims that converting gas grids to hydrogen could cost European users €240bn and that 'hydrogen ready' boilers are a greenwashing tactic to lock in fossil gas use. The document highlights that hydrogen combustion emits dangerous nitrogen oxides (NOx), contrary to industry marketing, and that heat pumps are significantly more cost-effective and efficient than hydrogen-based heating.
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Document type: Report
Background Note on Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform
The document analyzes the global landscape of fossil fuel subsidies, noting a significant rise to almost USD 700 billion in 2021. It distinguishes between production and consumption subsidies—the latter making up 86% of 2019 estimates—and highlights how these supports distort international trade through 'pass-through' effects. The briefing argues that reforming these subsidies could reduce CO2 emissions by an average of 6% by 2030 across 32 economies, especially if savings are reinvested in clean energy. It also details the role of the WTO and other international forums (G7, G20, APEC) in establishing disciplines to phase out inefficient subsidies.
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Document type: Briefing
Illicit Financial Flows and Conflict in Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining: Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger
The report analyzes how the informality of artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger facilitates illicit financial flows (IFFs) and fuels regional conflict. It examines the legal frameworks, the scale of gold smuggling—particularly to the UAE—and the ways non-state armed groups exploit mining sites for funding and recruitment. The document highlights a 'vicious circle' where state absence and corruption drive miners toward informal or militant-controlled sites, while recommending simplified formalization, tax harmonization, and multi-level governance to stabilize the sector.
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Document type: Report
Assessment of Opportunities in Haryana
The report argues that demand response for residential cooling can mitigate the grid stress caused by increasing air conditioner use during heatwaves in Haryana. By 2030, targeted load reduction of residential cooling could reduce peak load requirements by up to 400 MW, resulting in power purchase savings of up to INR 83 lacs per event. The document identifies barriers to implementation, including a lack of granular data on consumer behavior and the need for dynamic tariffs and smart meter penetration.
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Document type: Report
UPDATED INFLATION REDUCTION ACT MODELING USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is projected to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 37% to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, significantly closing the gap toward the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). While oil and gas leasing provisions may increase global emissions by 17 to 29 MMT CO2e, these are heavily offset by other IRA provisions. The legislation is expected to create up to 1.3 million jobs, prevent up to 4,500 premature deaths from air pollution, and increase U.S. GDP by 0.65% to 0.77% by 2030.
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Document type: Research paper
Angolas Wahlen 2022: Positiver Wandel oder mehr vom Gleichen?
The 2022 Angolan elections are characterized as a tight race between the ruling MPLA and UNITA, occurring against a backdrop of economic stagnation and public dissatisfaction. While the MPLA promises policy continuity, UNITA advocates for structural reforms and a transition of power. The analysis highlights significant concerns regarding the transparency of the electoral process, including partisan control of electoral institutions and flawed voter registration. Despite these challenges, the MPLA is expected to win due to its control of state resources, though the results may trigger protests. Internationally, Angola's role as an OPEC member and oil producer makes it a strategic energy alternative for Western markets amid the crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Document type: Research paper
How to Protect Forest Carbon in a Fire-Prone Future
The policy brief examines the impact of high-severity wildfires on the U.S. forest carbon sink, noting that forests in several Western states have become net carbon emitters. It advocates for scaling up 'fuel load treatments'—such as prescribed burns and mechanical removal of biomass—to mitigate wildfire risk and suggests developing markets for thinned biomass (e.g., biochar, green hydrogen) to fund these efforts and reduce emissions. The brief calls for federal policy support via the 2023 Farm Bill to increase research, support rural and Tribal communities, and incentivize innovative wood products.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Anatomy of Kenya’s 2022 Election
The 2022 Kenyan election occurs amidst severe economic instability driven by global food, energy, and climate crises, with cooking oil prices rising 47% and millions requiring food aid. The contest primarily features Raila Odinga and William Ruto, with the winner facing the urgent need to stabilize fuel and food prices without increasing national debt. While the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has seen few reforms since 2017, there are signs of a peaceful democratic transition and increased female candidacy.
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Document type: Research paper
JUST ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND NATURAL GAS IN AFRICA: BALANCING CLIMATE ACTION AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
The document examines the tension between Africa's significant natural gas resources and the global shift toward net-zero emissions. It argues that while gas provides short-term revenue and energy security, long-term investments face high risks of becoming stranded assets due to declining global demand and the falling costs of renewable energy. The paper advocates for leveraging climate finance to scale up renewables and green hydrogen, which it presents as more sustainable pathways for economic diversification and energy access.
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Document type: Research paper
Why Canadian Liquefied Natural Gas Is Not the Answer for the European Union’s Short-Term Energy Needs
The document examines the feasibility of using Canadian LNG to replace Russian gas in the EU, concluding that the 3-to-5-year timeline for building new Canadian facilities is incompatible with the EU's immediate needs and its medium-term goal of phasing out gas by 2025-2027.
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Document type: Policy brief