UPDATED INFLATION REDUCTION ACT MODELING USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR

Energy Innovation's modeling indicates that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 37-43% below 2005 levels by 2030, closing a significant portion of the gap toward the U.S. Paris Agreement commitments. The act is projected to significantly increase clean electricity generation (up to 85% share) and create up to 1.3 million jobs, while avoiding up to 4,500 premature deaths from air pollution. Despite emissions increases from required oil and gas leasing, the net effect remains overwhelmingly positive, with at least 28 tons of emissions avoided for every ton generated by those provisions.

• The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is projected to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37 to 43 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This represents a reduction of 820 to 1,200 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which would only see a 25 percent reduction.
• The IRA is estimated to close between 49 and 71 percent of the emissions gap between the business-as-usual forecast and the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
• The IRA's clean electricity provisions could increase the share of clean electricity generation to between 72 and 85 percent by 2030, with cumulative solar and wind capacity ranging from 795 GW to 1,053 GW. In contrast, the BAU scenario projects a 49 percent share and 413 GW of capacity.

APA

MAHAJAN, M., ASHMOORE, O., RISSMAN, J., ORVIS, R., & GOPAL, A. (2022). UPDATED INFLATION REDUCTION ACT MODELING USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Updated-Inflation-Reduction-Act-Modeling-Using-the-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf

Chicago

MAHAJAN, MEGAN, OLIVIA ASHMOORE, JEFFREY RISSMAN, ROBBIE ORVIS, and ANAND GOPAL. UPDATED INFLATION REDUCTION ACT MODELING USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation, 2022. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Updated-Inflation-Reduction-Act-Modeling-Using-the-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MAHAJAN |first1=MEGAN |last2=ASHMOORE |first2=OLIVIA |last3=RISSMAN |first3=JEFFREY |last4=ORVIS |first4=ROBBIE |last5=GOPAL |first5=ANAND |title=UPDATED INFLATION REDUCTION ACT MODELING USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=23 August 2022 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Updated-Inflation-Reduction-Act-Modeling-Using-the-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2022updated, author = {MAHAJAN, MEGAN and ASHMOORE, OLIVIA and RISSMAN, JEFFREY and ORVIS, ROBBIE and GOPAL, ANAND}, title = {{UPDATED INFLATION REDUCTION ACT MODELING USING THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2022}, month = aug, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Updated-Inflation-Reduction-Act-Modeling-Using-the-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }