Can Indonesia really achieve a net zero power sector by 2040?

This briefing by Ember discusses the feasibility and requirements for Indonesia to achieve a net zero power sector by 2040, based on analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It highlights the necessity of phasing out unabated coal, increasing clean energy investment, and addressing technical and regulatory barriers to accelerate the broader national goal of net zero emissions by 2050.

• To reach a net zero power sector by 2040, Indonesia must phase out unabated coal power, a process that needs to begin in the 2020s. In the IEA's 2050 Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, coal-fired generation in 2030 would be 70% lower than in the announced pledges scenario because the flexibility of coal power would lead to reduced operational time.
• Investment in the electricity sector must increase significantly to accelerate the transition. Annual investment should triple in the current decade to nearly USD 40 billion and increase eightfold in the following decade to approximately USD 80 billion compared to the 2010s, with about 50% dedicated to renewable energy. While the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources targeted USD 7 billion per year for renewables by 2025, this is considered insufficient and should rise to USD 20 billion per year until 2030, focusing on solar, wind, and flexible grid technology.
• The energy transition is expected to create 500,000 new jobs in the energy supply sector, primarily in electricity, while resulting in 230,000 job losses, mostly in coal mining. This results in a net gain of 265,000 jobs, though the document emphasizes the need for socially inclusive policies to support those at risk, especially in coal-producing regions.
• Indonesia possesses high technical potential for utility-scale solar (1,462 GW) and wind (500 GW). However, transition is hindered by PT PLN's operations, specifically "take or pay" clauses in Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) that displace renewable generation, and coal plants that cannot adapt to variable renewable energy. Additionally, inter-regional connectivity between main islands is required to resolve the mismatch between renewable sources and demand centers.
• Presidential Regulation No. 112/2022, issued by the Government of Indonesia, aims to accelerate renewable energy development for electricity supply. This regulation introduces a new mechanism for renewable energy tariffs and establishes the first formal regulation for the early retirement of coal power in the country.

APA

Jones, D., & Sucahyo, R. (2022). Can Indonesia really achieve a net zero power sector by 2040? Ember. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/can-indonesia-really-achieve-a-net-zero-power-sector-by-2040

Chicago

Jones, Dave, and Rini Sucahyo. Can Indonesia really achieve a net zero power sector by 2040? Ember, 2022. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/can-indonesia-really-achieve-a-net-zero-power-sector-by-2040.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jones |first1=Dave |last2=Sucahyo |first2=Rini |title=Can Indonesia really achieve a net zero power sector by 2040? |publisher=Ember |date=19 September 2022 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/can-indonesia-really-achieve-a-net-zero-power-sector-by-2040 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jones2022can, author = {Jones, Dave and Sucahyo, Rini}, title = {{Can Indonesia really achieve a net zero power sector by 2040?}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2022}, month = sep, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/can-indonesia-really-achieve-a-net-zero-power-sector-by-2040}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }