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The authors present Urban Social Disorder 3.0, a global event dataset covering 186 cities from 1960-2014, containing 13,324 events. The study finds that global urban social disorder increased after the early 2000s, driven largely by Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Contrary to some previous research, the authors find a positive relationship between city population size and the frequency of lethal disorder events, while urban growth rates show no such association. The analysis also suggests that autocratic regimes may be more effective at suppressing lethal urban disorder than democratic ones.

The authors examine the morality of coercive diplomacy, distinguishing between deterrent and compellent threats. They argue that while threats are less harmful than actual force, they are not morally neutral and must be assessed via just war principles including just cause, proportionality, legitimate authority, and right intention.

The author examines the post-communist trajectories of Central and Southeastern Europe, arguing that the collapse of communism was foreseeable and constituted a comprehensive revolution. The text analyzes debates over whether the process was a 'transition' or 'transformation' and identifies key determinants of democratic consolidation, such as the absence of war, the role of the European Union, and educational attainment. It specifically refutes the 'ancient hatreds' myth regarding the Yugoslav meltdown, attributing the conflict instead to system illegitimacy, economic decay, and the agency of leaders like Slobodan Milošević.

The authors argue that the EITI lacks a proven Theory of Change, risking obsolescence in some countries. They propose three models—Name-and-Shame, Public Debate, and Technical Reform—and find that while stakeholders prefer the Public Debate model, actual change occurs primarily through Technical Reform. The study emphasizes that ToCs must be dynamic and context-specific to bridge the gap between disclosure and actual accountability.

The report examines the water crisis in North Cyprus, driven by climate change and poor management, and evaluates the 'Project of the Century'—a pipeline transporting water from Turkey's Toros Mountains to North Cyprus. It highlights the risks of over-reliance on Turkey, the failure of current decentralized water management, and the lack of coordination between the island's divided administrations. The authors recommend transitioning to a centralized, transparent governance model based on OECD principles, diversifying water sources through renewable-energy-powered desalination, and fostering bi-communal cooperation to ensure long-term environmental sustainability.

The document examines how local cadres in Diqing prefecture used three distinct 'genres' of truth—scientific, literary, and visionary—to justify renaming Zhongdian county to Shangrila. While official state applications relied on scientific and literary evidence to locate the fictional paradise of James Hilton's novel in the material world, local legitimacy was sought by associating the name with the spiritual realm of Shambhala. The author argues that these multiple truths coexist by operating in different ontological realities: the 'actual' material world and the 'virtual' spiritual world.

The report analyzes the historical transformation of Cyprus in the Turkish public imagination, moving from a 'national cause' (mid-1950s to early 2000s) to a 'national burden' (post-2002), and more recently to a 'national opportunity.' It examines how the 'securitization' of the Cyprus Problem by state elites and the military created an unquestionable national stance that lasted until the rise of the AK Party. The authors highlight growing tensions between Turkey and Turkish Cypriots, driven by paternalistic policies, economic austerity demands, and conflicting views on religious and national identity.

The research paper analyzes the strategic motivations for terrorism in civil wars using a new dataset linking the Uppsala/PRIO Armed Conflict Data and the Global Terrorism Database. It argues that terrorism serves to coerce governments and communicate resolve, particularly for militarily weaker groups. The study finds that the frequency of attacks increases with government repression and press freedom. Furthermore, it identifies a correlation between group ideology and targeting: groups with universalist ideologies (e.g., Marxist-socialist) predominantly target 'hard' official targets, while those with sectarian or religious ideologies are more likely to target 'soft' civilian targets due to stronger 'othering' of out-groups.

The Astana process, initiated by Russia and co-sponsored by Turkey and Iran, emerged in 2017 as a parallel track to UN-led peace talks in Syria. While it achieved some tangible results in ceasefire and de-escalation, the document argues that it has been heavily instrumentalized by its sponsors to serve their own geopolitical interests. This has led to significant deficits in representation, as participants were selected based on political preferences rather than inclusivity, and a lack of Syrian ownership, effectively transforming the Syrian crisis into a negotiation among three external 'guarantor powers'.

The research examines why self-determination groups adopt different strategies to achieve greater self-rule. By analyzing 146 groups across 77 states from 1960 to 2005, the author finds that while some factors like economic discrimination and independence demands increase the likelihood of both non-violent and violent irregular politics, others—such as group size and internal fragmentation—differentially drive groups toward either civil war or non-violent campaigns.

The author analyzes 'value-talk'—the use of references to 'our values' to formulate 'we', 'us', and 'them'—following terror attacks in France and Norway. By examining national TV news from the first week after the events, the study argues that values are not static traits dividing cultural groups, but are dynamic tools used to mobilize unity (we-hood) and dissociate the national community from terrorists (us-hood). The findings suggest that while both countries used value-talk to foster cohesion, the results differed: Norway experienced a more consensus-oriented, depoliticized narrative, whereas France's efforts were more fragmented and marked by ongoing conflict regarding the loyalty of Muslim populations to the Republic.

The author argues that World Refugee Day (WRD) functions as a tool for the UNHCR to recast refugee agency as an extension of its own humanitarian efforts, effectively acting as a 'surrogate state' for displaced people. By analyzing the 'World Pays Tribute' news story, the paper highlights a tension between the celebratory, de-politicized imagery of WRD—which often uses 'utopian representations' of joyful refugees—and the 'extra-democratic' realities of UNHCR governance, such as the 'warehousing' of refugees in camps and procedural gaps in refugee status determination.

The study finds that one in three Ukrainians experienced food insecurity in the weeks following the 2022 Russian invasion. Both direct military attacks on individuals and indirect attacks on their municipalities significantly predict higher levels of food insecurity, with direct victimization having the strongest effect. These findings persist regardless of age, education, or socioeconomic status, though indirect attacks on municipalities were found to have a more adverse impact on men.

The research examines whether armed conflict contributes to excess female mortality by affecting reproductive health and maternal mortality. The study finds that while conflict is associated with moderately higher maternal mortality rates, its effect on overall fertility is only significant in low-income countries, where it may act as a deterrent to the demographic transition. Unexpectedly, the study identifies that conflicts in neighboring countries are associated with lower maternal mortality, potentially due to the effectiveness of international health interventions for refugee populations.

The WARICC codebook details the construction of a dataset designed to analyze the frequency and intensity of domestic water-related conflict and cooperation. Using BBC Monitoring as its primary source, the project employs an 11-point Water-Events Scale (WES) to categorize events from substantial national improvements (+5) to overt physical violence or national deterioration (-5). The methodology addresses potential data biases related to urban areas, regime types, and extreme events, while providing a comprehensive system of country and actor codes for standardized reporting.

The research examines the link between water scarcity and intrastate conflict, arguing that the relationship is not deterministic but is mediated by domestic political institutions. Using a simultaneous equations model for 98 countries (1981–2000), the authors find that while water scarcity does not directly increase the probability of conflict, it does negatively impact the likelihood of democratic institutions emerging. Crucially, the study finds that democratic regimes are more effective at mitigating the risk of conflict in water-scarce conditions. The authors suggest an 'ecological trap' where water scarcity promotes autocracy, which in turn fails to manage resources effectively, potentially leading to a cycle of scarcity, autocracy, and conflict.

The report examines the impact of the Turkey-North Cyprus water pipeline, an innovative project pumping water from the Taurus Mountains to North Cyprus, within the context of increasing water scarcity in the Eastern Mediterranean. It highlights a systemic failure in water governance in North Cyprus, characterized by short-term political tactics, lack of coordination, and unsustainable groundwater extraction leading to salinisation. While the pipeline provides a significant new resource, the authors argue that without comprehensive reform—including the creation of an independent regulatory board, better data collection, and bi-communal cooperation—the project may not ensure long-term climate resilience. The report suggests adopting OECD principles of water governance to improve effectiveness, efficiency, and trust.

The document examines the systemic marginalization of Rohingya refugees in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, highlighting how the denial of formal education and legal employment pushes refugees toward desperate survival measures, including drug trafficking and hazardous migration. It critiques the Bangladeshi government's restrictive policies and the forced relocation to Bhasan Char, while calling for an inclusive, negotiated solution involving Myanmar, Bangladesh, and the refugees themselves.

The study analyzes publication data from 91 researchers at a Norwegian social science institute between 2010 and 2014 to demonstrate that the 'gender gap' in productivity is highly sensitive to the chosen metric. While men appear significantly more productive when only journal articles are counted, the gap narrows when books and book chapters are included, and it can even reverse when co-authorship is fractionalized for certain ranks. The authors argue that academic writing is a situated social practice, and that standard bibliometric indicators often fail to capture gendered differences in publication patterns, such as women's tendency toward more diverse output and different collaboration networks.

The research examines why some international armaments collaborations succeed while others fail, challenging the 'process' approach of institutional reform. By comparing the failed Viking submarine project (Norway, Denmark, Sweden) and the successful Storm Shadow missile project (UK, France, Italy), the authors argue that formal alliance bonds—specifically NATO membership—provide the necessary incentives for governments to overcome domestic opposition and industrial rivalries. The paper concludes that security ties and high politics outweigh the influence of similar political economies, cultural affinities, or complementary industrial capabilities.