Understanding strategic choice: The determinants of civil war and non-violent campaign in self-determination disputes

The research examines why self-determination groups adopt different strategies to achieve greater self-rule. By analyzing 146 groups across 77 states from 1960 to 2005, the author finds that while some factors like economic discrimination and independence demands increase the likelihood of both non-violent and violent irregular politics, others—such as group size and internal fragmentation—differentially drive groups toward either civil war or non-violent campaigns.

• Civil war is more likely than conventional politics when self-determination groups are larger, internally fragmented, have kin in adjoining states, are excluded from political power, face economic discrimination, demand independence, and operate in states with lower economic development.
• Non-violent campaigns are more likely than conventional politics when groups are smaller, less geographically concentrated, excluded from political power, face economic discrimination, demand independence, and operate in non-democracies.
• Democracy reduces the likelihood of non-violent campaigns relative to conventional politics, suggesting that democratic states provide more efficient institutional channels for groups to pursue their agendas.
• Demands for total independence make both civil war and non-violent campaigns more likely than conventional politics, as independence is rarely achieved through institutional means.
• Economic discrimination significantly increases the probability of both non-violent campaigns and civil war compared to relying on conventional politics.
• Internal fragmentation within a self-determination group increases the likelihood of civil war due to credibility problems in bargaining with the state, but it does not have a statistically significant effect on the likelihood of non-violent campaigns.
• The presence of kin in an adjoining state increases the likelihood of civil war but has no significant effect on the likelihood of non-violent campaigns.

APA

Cunningham, K. G. (n.d.). Understanding strategic choice: The determinants of civil war and non-violent campaign in self-determination disputes. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6dec6e77-338e-4429-91ac-9f2282d47bf0/Understanding strategic choice The determinants of civil war and nonviolent campaign in self-determination disputes.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher. Understanding strategic choice: The determinants of civil war and non-violent campaign in self-determination disputes. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6dec6e77-338e-4429-91ac-9f2282d47bf0/Understanding strategic choice The determinants of civil war and nonviolent campaign in self-determination disputes.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cunningham |first1=Kathleen Gallagher |title=Understanding strategic choice: The determinants of civil war and non-violent campaign in self-determination disputes |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6dec6e77-338e-4429-91ac-9f2282d47bf0/Understanding strategic choice The determinants of civil war and nonviolent campaign in self-determination disputes.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cunninghamndunderstanding, author = {Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher}, title = {{Understanding strategic choice: The determinants of civil war and non-violent campaign in self-determination disputes}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6dec6e77-338e-4429-91ac-9f2282d47bf0/Understanding strategic choice The determinants of civil war and nonviolent campaign in self-determination disputes.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }