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The study analyzes five development scenarios for Kenya's residential cooking sector to quantify GHG emissions, health impacts, and fuel demand. It finds that shifting from 'modern cooking' (LPG and improved biomass stoves) to 'clean cooking' (electric, biogas, and bioethanol) can significantly reduce emissions, with the most ambitious scenario achieving net-zero by mid-century. Implementation of the net-zero scenario could avoid nearly 500,000 premature deaths over 30 years. However, the transition is hindered by high upfront costs, cultural practices like fuel stacking, and the absence of a comprehensive, sector-wide strategy.

The NewClimate Institute developed a methodology to assess the design of NDCs based on four criteria: increased mitigation ambition, comprehensiveness, implementation plans, and transparency. Applying this to 20 diverse NDCs, the analysis found that while most countries meet requirements for comprehensiveness and transparency, less than half demonstrated higher mitigation ambition compared to their first NDC, and many lack clear implementation plans.

The NewClimate Institute proposes a rating system to categorize agribusinesses based on their consistency with Paris Agreement mitigation objectives, providing guidance for development finance on when to exclude, engage, or scale up funding. The system ranges from 'misaligned'—covering activities that drive deforestation or rely on air freight—to 'aligned,' which identifies businesses following best practices in soil carbon, manure management, and plant-based protein production.

The document examines the role of technical assistance in establishing green bond markets in China and Kenya, concluding that while such assistance is a critical element for transformative change in the finance sector, it is not sufficient on its own.

The report finds that while the number of non-state and subnational actors setting climate targets is growing, there is limited evidence that this ambition is translating into realized impacts. Full implementation of individual targets could reduce 2030 emissions by 2.0 to 2.5 GtCO2e/year, while international cooperative initiatives' goals could lead to a reduction of 16 GtCO2e/year. However, progress is uneven, with only half of city governments and 80% of companies meeting their 2020 targets.

The document argues that development finance institutions (DFIs) cannot achieve full alignment with the Paris Agreement if they only focus on direct project financing, as substantial portions of their finance are channeled through financial intermediaries. It proposes a phased alignment strategy combining subproject-level criteria for mitigation and adaptation with institutional-level requirements for climate governance and transparency.

The NewClimate Institute and I4CE have developed an operationalization framework to help International Development Finance Club (IDFC) members align their financial flows with the Paris Agreement. Based on the six principles of the 2018 IDFC position paper, the framework provides guidance at strategic, operational, and country levels. It emphasizes that no single tool exists for alignment; instead, institutions must use a tailored combination of tools based on their specific mandates, strategies, and sectors. The guidance focuses on defining objectives, identifying key institutional changes, evaluating existing tools, and providing recommendations for full Paris-alignment.

The report analyzes how varying rates of OMGE and SOP, alongside CDM transition rules, affect global GHG abatement and adaptation funding. It finds that higher OMGE rates increase net global abatement and credit prices, while higher SOP rates increase revenues for the Adaptation Fund without affecting net global abatement. The transition of CDM units and activities is found to potentially increase global emissions unless limited to vulnerable projects.

The report identifies significant energy and emission reduction potentials through the adoption of 'Green ACs' in public buildings, while highlighting financial, political, and technical barriers that hinder the implementation of Green Public Procurement.

The paper identifies four essential functions for the Global Stocktake (GST)—acting as a policy pacemaker, ensuring accountability, driving ambition, and signaling commitment—while highlighting data gaps in NDC emissions quantification as a primary challenge. It proposes that the UNFCCC maximize GST effectiveness through public appraisals, the use of performance distributions for collective assessments, sectoral discussions in expert dialogues, and IPCC-led benchmark identification, supplemented by independent civil society and academic analysis.

The Climate Action Tracker estimates global warming by 2100 at 2.4°C, a 0.2°C improvement driven by recent announcements including those from the US Leaders Summit on Climate. While 131 countries covering 73% of global emissions have adopted or are considering net zero targets, the 2030 emissions gap remains significant, and current policies lead to a projected warming of 2.9°C.

The report examines the disparity between cost-effectiveness and equity-based criteria for determining national emissions reduction targets under the Paris Agreement. It suggests that international support can bridge this gap, provided it avoids carbon lock-in and considers socio-economic contexts. The document also highlights how domestic political shifts in countries like Brazil and the United States create spill-over effects globally, and argues that the European Union can accelerate global transformation by adopting a more ambitious 2030 goal and a robust institutional setup for its 2050 climate neutrality target.

The Climate Action Tracker reports that recent Paris Agreement pledges and targets have reduced the estimated end-of-century warming to 2.4°C, down by 0.2°C. While the 2030 emissions gap for a 1.5°C pathway has narrowed by 11-14%, current policies still project a warming of 2.9°C. The most optimistic scenario, assuming full implementation of net zero targets, suggests warming could be as low as 2.0°C, though this remains above the Paris Agreement limit. The report emphasizes that stronger near-term 2030 targets are more critical for reducing warming than the addition of new net zero targets.

The document examines the potential for "debt-for-climate" swaps as a mechanism to provide budgetary relief to developing countries while funding climate mitigation and adaptation. It argues that while these swaps are not a universal solution and must supplement general macroeconomic stabilisation, they offer mutual benefits for debtors and creditors. The authors propose a selection framework based on economic need, emissions potential, climate ambition, and governance capacity. Applying these criteria, the paper identifies several Small Island Developing States (SIDS)—including Dominica, Granada, Samoa, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Tonga—as well as Bhutan and Rwanda, as promising candidates for such initiatives. However, the authors note a trade-off: while these countries are highly suitable, their low emissions mean the global impact on emissions would be smaller compared to including larger emerging economies.

The document examines how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected energy demand, security, and utility finances in emerging economies, arguing that the recovery phase presents an opportunity for a 'green recovery'. Using case studies from Indonesia, Kenya, Thailand, Mexico, and South Africa, it identifies common challenges such as household energy insecurity and financial stress for state-owned utilities. The authors urge governments to integrate green recovery into their NDC planning, commit to accelerated decarbonisation, and address systemic vulnerabilities to prevent social injustices during the energy transition.

The report analyzes emission projections for Georgia's transport sector up to 2030, comparing a business-as-usual scenario with a Climate Strategy and Action Plan (CSAP) scenario and Paris Agreement-compatible pathways. It highlights the significant role of freight and passenger transport in national emissions and recommends the establishment of a permanent coordinated planning process, improved data collection, and the pursuit of international climate finance for high-potential mitigation measures.

The policy brief highlights that Poland has access to unprecedented EU funding for thermal modernization through the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027 and the Recovery and Resilience Facility. However, it warns that fragmented information on financing and a lack of monitoring of financial flows risk the inefficient use of these funds. To address this, the author recommends tying support to efficiency gains, establishing long-term programs with continuous calls, avoiding overlaps between support systems, and standardizing the evaluation and monitoring of investment projects and financial flows.

The EU cement sector faces challenges in deep emission reductions due to chemical process emissions. The study evaluates two high-innovation scenarios: one dependent on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and another focused on novel cements and supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs). Both pathways require CCS to reach near-zero emissions by 2050 and face limited roll-out potential before 2030 due to the need for piloting and demonstration. The report recommends developing a sector-level decarbonisation roadmap aligned with the European Green Deal, establishing R&D funding, and updating standards to enable rapid emission reductions after 2030.

The report analyzes pathways for decarbonizing India's transport sector, which is the country's fastest-growing source of carbon emissions. It explores two primary paradigm shifts: scaling up rail transport and the electrification of road transport. The analysis identifies policy-driven interventions—including urban planning, electrification, modal shifts to public transport, and alternative fuels—to determine their mitigation potential compared to a 'Current Policies' scenario. While the report reviews international policy examples to initiate transformation, it does not quantify the international financial support required for these transitions.

The document examines the use of carbon market infrastructure to provide results-based finance, noting that while it offers standardized metrics and crowdfunding capabilities, it often prioritizes cheap mitigation over transformative change and creates risks for small developers. It suggests that results-based finance is best suited for a niche of proven but not yet mature technologies, while nascent technologies require grants.