Search Climate Insights Directory

Africa was instrumental in establishing the deep seabed mining regime under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea but became apathetic following the 1994 Implementation Agreement. Currently, Africa is the only regional group that has not sponsored an entity to explore the international seabed area (the Area). While the African Union and the UN Economic Commission for Africa have integrated DSM into blue economy strategies and roadmaps, implementation has lagged. The report argues that investing in DSM is strategically appropriate for Africa as the global transition to a low-carbon economy may impact terrestrial mining. It recommends that African states consider sponsoring exploration contracts and that the AU adopt the Lomé Annexes and revise its Integrated Maritime Strategy to provide a clear legal and policy framework for DSM.

The report examines the African Union's struggle to deter military coups and combat terrorism, highlighting the limitations of current frameworks and the need for a more holistic approach. It focuses on the Malabo summit's agenda, including the Accra Declaration on unconstitutional changes of government and the establishment of an African Standby Force counterterrorism unit. The document also analyzes the security volatility in the Lake Chad Basin and the fragile humanitarian truce in Ethiopia, arguing for a shift from purely militaristic responses to those incorporating political and social measures.

The March 2022 attacks on the Abuja-Kaduna railway, which resulted in deaths and 168 kidnappings, indicate a shift toward targeting state infrastructure by bandits and violent extremists. These groups, including Boko Haram and Ansaru, fund their operations through a kidnapping economy, with an estimated US$18.34 million paid in ransoms between 2011 and 2020. The attacks threaten the economic viability of the railway, which generates N300 million monthly, and highlight the need for intelligence-led security and the resolution of underlying socio-economic issues like poverty and corruption.

The report examines the applicability of transitional justice in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), noting that while the region is not yet post-conflict, there is a need for mechanisms to address mass human rights abuses. It finds that LCB countries are at different stages of conceptualising these tools and that a balance between restorative and retributive justice is necessary. The document highlights the importance of local ownership, the role of traditional and religious conflict resolution mechanisms, and the need to address root causes of violent extremism such as structural inequalities.

The report examines the drivers of recent coups in West Africa and the need for the AU to strengthen normative frameworks against unconstitutional changes of government. It assesses the shift in EU financing from the Africa Peace Facility (APF) to the European Peace Facility (EPF), warning that this may increase European militarism and reduce AU leadership in peace operations. Additionally, it evaluates the transition from AMISOM to ATMIS in Somalia and the potential for joint AU-UN mediation to resolve the political stalemate in Sudan.

The report examines the erosion of socio-economic resilience in the Lake Chad Basin due to the Boko Haram conflict. It details the disruption of fishing, agriculture, and livestock trade, the negative impact of state-imposed trade bans and extortion, and the specific vulnerabilities of women. It argues that the lack of state development presence pushes communities toward 'perverse social contracts' with violent extremist groups for survival.

The report assesses the cyclical nature of violence in South Sudan and the failure of successive peace agreements to establish lasting stability. It argues that durable peace requires a multi-level approach that links local and national processes, prioritises long-term investment over 'quick-fix' events, and integrates livelihood support with social cohesion. The authors highlight the devastating humanitarian cost, noting that 8.3 million people needed assistance as of October 2021, and emphasize that resilience-building must address root causes of inequality and justice rather than treating resilience as an end goal. A key identified opportunity for innovation is addressing the gendered dimensions of conflict-driven hunger, which the report argues has been overlooked in national peace frameworks.

Nigeria faces severe developmental challenges including endemic corruption, insecurity, and an overdependence on oil exports. Projections indicate that without intervention, Nigeria will have the highest number of poor people globally by 2050. The report proposes a 'Super Nigeria' scenario combining improvements in governance, human capital, infrastructure, agriculture, and economic diversification to potentially make Nigeria the fifth largest economy globally by 2050.

The report argues that African states must transition from being 'junior partners' in global cyber diplomacy to active participants by developing common continental positions and leveraging their demographic position as a future technology market. It highlights the risks of 'norm colonisation' from cyber superpowers and the vulnerability of fragile democracies to information warfare. The author recommends that the African Union recruit 'cyber champions' from digitally mature states and uncouple trade negotiations from cyber diplomacy to ensure a unified approach to digital governance and security.

The report analyzes Egypt's path to 2050, highlighting critical risks from rapid population growth (projected to reach 150 million) and severe water shortages expected by 2025. It identifies systemic economic issues, including a large informal sector and high youth unemployment, alongside health crises driven by non-communicable diseases. Through the International Futures (IFs) platform, the authors simulate seven sectoral interventions—covering demography, economy, governance, energy, health, education, and agriculture—concluding that a combined policy push could nearly double the economy's size and significantly reduce extreme poverty by 2050.

The study found that while parenting programmes can reduce parenting stress and improve children's mental health, their overall effectiveness is undermined by systemic issues such as intimate partner violence, substance misuse, and poor adult mental health. The intervention showed a trend toward reduced spanking and increased positive parenting among Afrikaans-speaking caregivers, but failed to achieve a community-wide shift due to linguistic barriers and severe socio-economic stressors.

The document argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Africa, where risks are amplified by existing governance deficits and poor development. It emphasizes that while climate-driven scarcity can fuel conflict, causality is complex and depends on political and historical contexts. The authors advocate for integrating climate action into the broader development agenda, transitioning from a narrative of vulnerability to one of economic opportunity through renewable energy and climate-resilient infrastructure. Key recommendations include strengthening the evidence base for climate security, increasing climate finance flows, and expanding climate diplomacy beyond the UNFCCC to platforms like the G20 and the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement.

The document examines the development of Theories of Change (ToCs) for three community-based organisations (CBOs) in the Western Cape and Northern Cape. It finds that while ToCs provide a strategic framework linking theory to practice and align community-led interventions with global best practices, their success depends heavily on organisational ownership, in-person engagement, and inclusivity regarding language barriers.

The Violence Prevention Forum (VPF) developed a shared definition of violence prevention in 2021 through a collaborative process involving government, NGOs, researchers, and the private sector. The resulting definition describes violence prevention as "the whole of society working deliberately and sustainably to remove sources of harm and inequality, and heal woundedness, by intentionally growing an ethic of mutual care, respect and inclusion to build peace." The VPF emphasizes that preventing violence requires addressing structural causes such as poverty, racism, and inequality, and advocates for a "whole-of-society approach" that is accessible across all 11 official South African languages.

The Goudoumaria reception centre in Niger provides socio-economic rehabilitation for Boko Haram defectors, but the programme faces significant challenges including funding shortages, inadequate vocational training, and gender-based stereotypes. While it has processed at least 375 individuals, issues such as long detention periods for the first cohort and a lack of psychosocial support for the second have hindered effectiveness. Economic instability and insufficient installation allowances have led some beneficiaries to return to Boko Haram, highlighting the need for improved monitoring and sustainable reintegration strategies to ensure regional stabilisation in the Lake Chad Basin.

The report argues that subsidiarity in the African Union (AU) is currently used as a political tool rather than a clear legal principle, leading to competition and inconsistency between the AU and regional mechanisms (RMs). It highlights that the lack of operational definitions and contradictory legal frameworks—such as the 2007 MoU and the PSC Protocol—creates confusion in the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). The authors suggest shifting the focus from a division of competences to a model of complementarity, where regions act as 'first responders' while the AU remains the 'primary actor'. Key recommendations include establishing a comprehensive legal, policy, and financial framework, utilizing the AU Peace Fund for alignment, and creating operational liaison offices between the AU Commission and RMs.

The report argues that Ethiopia's political transition since 2018 has been undermined by escalating inter-ethnic and communal violence. This instability is driven by a combination of militant ethno-nationalism, deep ideological divides between pan-Ethiopianism and ethnonationalism, and rivalries among political elites who mobilise the masses. The document highlights the role of state fragility, where institutional indifference, incompetence, and the complicity of some officials have allowed conflicts to proliferate. Specific regional tensions are detailed, including disputes over autonomy in the SNNP region and racial and economic grievances in Benishangul Gumuz. The report concludes that stability requires a comprehensive political settlement, an inclusive national dialogue, and the professionalisation of security forces to dismantle illicit arms networks.

The report finds that community-based organisations (CBOs) in South Africa provide violence prevention and youth development services at a low cost—under R7,000 per family per year—while generating significant tangible and intangible social benefits. Using case studies of Net vir Pret and Seven Passes Initiative, the analysis suggests a benefit-to-cost ratio of more than 2:1. The authors highlight the adaptability of CBOs compared to state institutions and call for the South African government to develop funding benchmarks to sustainably support these organisations.

The document examines the gaps in South Africa's violence-prevention M&E framework, noting that government monitoring focuses on financial compliance and service access rather than long-term outcomes. It highlights the reporting burden on NGOs, the lack of a unified national results framework, and the disconnect between administrative data and the lived experiences of communities.

The report finds that East Africa remains fragile due to violent extremism, insurgency, and resource-based conflicts, despite governance progress in some states. It highlights the prevalence of unregistered firearms, particularly in Somalia, and the role of anocracies in driving political instability. The document maps the overlapping mandates of regional organisations like the EAC and IGAD and recommends stronger inter-REC coordination and standardised regional monitoring to address information gaps.