The state of peace and security in East Africa

The report finds that East Africa remains fragile due to violent extremism, insurgency, and resource-based conflicts, despite governance progress in some states. It highlights the prevalence of unregistered firearms, particularly in Somalia, and the role of anocracies in driving political instability. The document maps the overlapping mandates of regional organisations like the EAC and IGAD and recommends stronger inter-REC coordination and standardised regional monitoring to address information gaps.

• The eastern African sub-region is characterized by high volatility, with Somalia and South Sudan identified as two of the five least safe and most insecure countries globally.
• Political instability in the region is linked to the nature of state power, where most countries are classified as anocracies (except Kenya) and political victory often results in a winner-take-all control of resources.
• Between January 2015 and July 2019, over 27,000 incidents of violence affected communities in the Horn and Great Lakes regions, with Somalia, the DRC, South Sudan, and Sudan being the worst affected.
• Conflict in pastoralist areas has evolved from traditional cattle raiding to commercialized livestock theft, disputes over extractive resources, and violent extremism.
• The region faces a significant challenge with illicit arms, with an estimated 9,073,000 unregistered firearms; Somalia and its breakaway regions of Somaliland and Puntland are the most militarized.
• Diplomatic tensions between Rwanda and Uganda are driven by strategic interests in the DRC, accusations of espionage, and the alleged infiltration of security apparatuses.
• The maritime border dispute between Kenya and Somalia threatens to undermine counter-terrorism efforts against al-Shabaab and complicates regional maritime security and piracy responses.
• Regional intergovernmental organisations, including the EAC and IGAD, have overlapping mandates and memberships, but often suffer from capacity and resource constraints that hinder regional diplomacy.
• State-level peacebuilding varies, with Rwanda's post-genocide reconciliation and Gacaca courts cited as a success story, while South Sudan struggles with ethnicised political power.
• Everyday peace indicators show that while Burundi and Tanzania have higher perceptions of safety, Kenya and Uganda report higher crime victimisation rates, particularly regarding theft.

APA

Wepundi, M., & Sharamo, R. D. (2021). The state of peace and security in East Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-205.pdf

Chicago

Wepundi, Manasseh, and Roba D Sharamo. The state of peace and security in East Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2021. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-205.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wepundi |first1=Manasseh |last2=Sharamo |first2=Roba D |title=The state of peace and security in East Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2021 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-205.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wepundi2021state, author = {Wepundi, Manasseh and Sharamo, Roba D}, title = {{The state of peace and security in East Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-205.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }