The state of peace and security in East Africa

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a scoping study on peace and security in East Africa, focusing on the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes regions. It analyzes conflict dynamics, state fragility, and the effectiveness of regional and national interventions, concluding that the region remains fragile despite some governance gains.

• The eastern African sub-region is characterized by high volatility, with Somalia and South Sudan identified as two of the five least safe and most insecure countries globally. The region is marked by a high incidence of violence, and most states classified as extremely fragile on the continental scale are located in the Horn and Great Lakes sub-regions, with the exception of the Central African Republic.
• The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains a central epicentre of conflict in the Great Lakes region, with over 130 armed groups operating in its eastern regions. Tensions between Rwanda and Uganda are partly driven by their competing strategic and economic interests in the DRC, including access to resources and security concerns regarding dissidents and refugees.
• Somalia is a primary epicentre of instability, facing non-traditional security threats such as terrorism from al-Shabaab, state failure, and the effects of climate change. A maritime border dispute between Somalia and Kenya further complicates regional security coordination and the fight against al-Shabaab.
• South Sudan continues to struggle with a cycle of civil war and militarised politics, primarily pitting the government of President Salva Kiir against First Vice-President Riek Machar. While a transitional power-sharing arrangement has brought some stability, implementation of peace agreements remains slow, particularly regarding security sector reform.
• Political transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan have been unstable. In Ethiopia, reforms under Prime Minister Abey Ahmed catalysed resurgent ethnic nationalism and violence, while in Sudan, the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir led to an uncertain transition where the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) hold significant power.
• The region faces a significant challenge with the proliferation of unregistered firearms, with an estimated 9,073,000 such weapons across the Horn and Great Lakes regions. Somalia and its breakaway regions of Somaliland and Puntland are the most militarised, reflecting a legacy of war.
• Nation-building efforts vary across the region: Rwanda is cited as a success story in post-conflict peacebuilding through the Gacaca courts and the National Unity and Reconciliation Commission, though stability is seen as dependent on the current leadership. In Kenya, the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) aimed at national unity has ironically increased political friction.
• Pastoralist communities in borderland areas experience high levels of conflict, which have evolved from traditional cattle raids to commercialised livestock theft and disputes over extractive resources, such as oil in Kenya's Turkana county.
• Regional intergovernmental organisations like the East African Community (EAC) and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have overlapping mandates and face capacity and funding constraints. The EAC's early warning centre (EACWARN) and IGAD's CEWARN are noted as needing stronger coordination and technical support.
• According to the Global Peace Index 2019, Tanzania is the most peaceful country in eastern Africa, followed by Rwanda. However, everyday peace indicators show significant vulnerabilities, with over half of households in Burundi frequently lacking basic necessities.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). The state of peace and security in East Africa. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-205.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. The state of peace and security in East Africa. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-205.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=The state of peace and security in East Africa |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-205.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndstate, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{The state of peace and security in East Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-205.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }