Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of climate change and human security in Africa. It argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' that interacts with existing socio-economic and political vulnerabilities to drive instability. The document advocates for a shift in climate governance from a focus on emissions and environmental risk to a development-led investment approach that builds economic resilience and social stability.

• Climate change does not cause security risks in isolation; rather, it acts as a threat multiplier where climate-related stressors interact with existing governance deficits, poor development, and a lack of basic infrastructure to marginalise communities.
• Water security is a primary pathway for climate security risks in Africa. The interaction of climate-driven water scarcity with factors like pollution, inefficient use, and governance failures can lead to socio-economic instability and conflict.
• In the Lake Chad Basin, a 90% decrease in the lake's size since the 1960s—caused by climate change, drought, and poor water management—has intensified competition for resources and increased farmer-pastoralist conflicts among the 30 million people dependent on the lake.
• While climate change can increase the risk of armed conflict—with research suggesting a 0.5% temperature increase raises the risk by 10% to 20%—caution is needed to avoid simplistic causality. Political, economic, and historical contexts must be considered alongside biophysical impacts.
• Climate action and the energy transition offer opportunities for economic diversification and job growth. Investing in climate-friendly technologies and weatherproofing key sectors like agriculture and tourism can build systemic resilience against shocks.
• There is a critical need for African nations to transition from making pledges and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to actual implementation to promote social resilience and economic diversification.

APA

Naidoo, D., & Gulati, M. (2022). Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb170.pdf

Chicago

Naidoo, Dhesigen, and Manisha Gulati. Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb170.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Naidoo |first1=Dhesigen |last2=Gulati |first2=Manisha |title=Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2022 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb170.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{naidoo2022understanding, author = {Naidoo, Dhesigen and Gulati, Manisha}, title = {{Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb170.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }