Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks

The document argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Africa, where risks are amplified by existing governance deficits and poor development. It emphasizes that while climate-driven scarcity can fuel conflict, causality is complex and depends on political and historical contexts. The authors advocate for integrating climate action into the broader development agenda, transitioning from a narrative of vulnerability to one of economic opportunity through renewable energy and climate-resilient infrastructure. Key recommendations include strengthening the evidence base for climate security, increasing climate finance flows, and expanding climate diplomacy beyond the UNFCCC to platforms like the G20 and the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement.

• Climate change does not cause security risks in isolation; rather, risks emerge from the interaction of climate stressors with political, economic, social, and environmental factors. These risks are intensified in areas with governance deficits, inadequate infrastructure, and economic exclusion.
• Water security is identified as a primary channel for climate security risks. The combination of climate-driven scarcity and non-climate drivers—such as pollution, inefficient use, and governance failures—can lead to political instability and conflict.
• In the Lake Chad Basin, the lake has shrunk by approximately 90% since the 1960s due to climate change, drought, and water resource overuse. This environmental degradation has increased farmer-pastoralist conflicts and complicated the impact of the Boko Haram insurgency.
• While climate change can multiply conflict risks—with research suggesting a 0.5% temperature increase raises armed conflict risk by 10% to 20%—direct causality is difficult to quantify. Attributing conflict solely to biophysical impacts ignores critical political and historical contexts.
• Climate action can be used as a tool for economic development. Transitioning to decentralized renewable energy and investing in climate-friendly technologies can create new employment and diversify economies, while weatherproofing agriculture and tourism protects the backbone of the African economy.
• Current climate governance is described as siloed and insufficient. The authors argue that climate security discussions are missing from the UNFCCC and that African nations must move from making pledges in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to actual implementation.

APA

Naidoo, D., & Gulati, M. (2022). Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb170.pdf

Chicago

Naidoo, Dhesigen, and Manisha Gulati. Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb170.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Naidoo |first1=Dhesigen |last2=Gulati |first2=Manisha |title=Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2022 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb170.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{naidoo2022understanding, author = {Naidoo, Dhesigen and Gulati, Manisha}, title = {{Understanding Africa’s climate and human security risks}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb170.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }