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The document argues that U.S. manufacturing is responsible for a quarter to a third of national greenhouse gas emissions and proposes a suite of policy interventions to transition to clean industry. Key recommendations include trade mechanisms like carbon border adjustments, green public procurement, direct financial support for early-stage technologies, and the implementation of emissions and energy efficiency standards. It emphasizes the need for a combination of R&D support, subsidies for clean production, and improved lending mechanisms to ensure U.S. industry remains competitive against international producers while achieving decarbonization.

The report examines the implementation of the Section 45V hydrogen production tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act. It argues that loose guidance on emissions accounting could lead to significant increases in greenhouse gas emissions and create an industry reliant on subsidies. The authors propose a framework based on three principles: additionality (requiring new clean energy sources), deliverability (requiring local, physically deliverable power), and time-matching (requiring hourly alignment of production and generation). Financial analysis of test sites in Texas, Minnesota, and Houston suggests that projects adhering to these strict standards remain profitable, particularly in regions with high wind and solar resource quality.

The document examines the paradoxical future of the western United States, where warming temperatures are projected to cause both more severe droughts and a higher likelihood of catastrophic megafloods. It highlights that while the total number of atmospheric rivers may decrease, those that do occur will be more intense due to the atmosphere's increased capacity to hold water vapor. Furthermore, warming is shifting precipitation from snow to rain, leading to declining snowpack volumes in the Northern Hemisphere and the American Cordillera, which complicates water management and increases flood risks.

The document argues that the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) underestimates the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) compared to Energy Innovation's modeling and other third-party analyses. While the AEO projects a 31% reduction in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 relative to 2005 levels, Energy Innovation's analysis finds a 41% reduction. The primary drivers of this discrepancy are the AEO's more conservative estimates of clean energy deployment in the electricity sector and electric vehicle sales, as well as its narrower scope, which focuses only on tax credits and excludes various budget-based government programs and non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

The Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) is a free, open-source System Dynamics model created in Vensim to help policymakers assess the effectiveness of climate and energy policies. It allows users to model policies such as renewable portfolio standards and fuel economy standards across sectors including transportation, electricity, and agriculture. The model tracks 12 pollutants, economic impacts on GDP and jobs, health outcomes, and energy sector composition. Its methodologies have been peer-reviewed by experts from institutions such as MIT, Stanford, and various national laboratories.

The report demonstrates that implementing five core policies—clean electricity standards, zero-emission vehicle standards, clean building equipment standards, industrial efficiency and emissions standards, and methane detection and capture standards—can dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions in Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), the authors find that these policies not only reduce emissions but also drive job growth, increase GDP, and prevent premature deaths by reducing air pollutants. The analysis highlights that while state emissions profiles vary—with Louisiana dominated by industry and New Mexico by methane from oil and gas—these five policies provide a consistent framework for decarbonization.

The report finds that 99% of U.S. coal plants are more expensive to operate than to replace with new renewable energy. It highlights that local solar and wind resources, bolstered by IRA tax credits and the ability to reuse existing grid interconnections, offer a cost-effective path for coal retirement. The analysis suggests that the savings from this transition could fund 137 GW of four-hour battery storage to maintain grid reliability. The authors recommend that policymakers update resource plans, improve interconnection processes, and utilize IRA financing to ensure a just economic transition for coal-dependent communities.

The report finds that the IRA will significantly accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the US, potentially exceeding the Biden administration's 2030 targets. However, the authors argue that these incentives alone are insufficient to meet the US Nationally Determined Contribution or the Paris Agreement goals, necessitating additional federal GHG standards and investments in infrastructure and manufacturing.

The report argues that while the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) significantly advances U.S. climate goals, it is insufficient on its own to meet the 2030 NDC. Using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), the authors propose a comprehensive set of additional federal, state, and local policies across the electricity, industry, transportation, and building sectors. The electricity sector is identified as the primary driver for 2030 reductions due to its ability to decarbonize faster than sectors limited by slow stock turnover. Proposed measures include a nationwide 80 percent clean electricity standard, stricter tailpipe emissions standards, and the electrification of industrial and building heating. The report estimates that this combined policy pathway would create 2.7 million additional jobs, grow GDP by $700 billion, and avoid 3,900 premature deaths by 2030.

The report analyzes the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on the U.S. building sector, highlighting its potential to reduce annual emissions by 32 to 33 million metric tons of CO2e by 2030. It details various residential rebates (HEEHRA, HOMES), tax credits (25C, 25D, 45L), and commercial incentives (179D), while emphasizing that these must be paired with stricter appliance standards and updated building codes to overcome slow stock turnover. The document provides specific implementation guidance for State Energy Offices and utility regulators to ensure an equitable transition, particularly for low-to-moderate-income households.

The report analyzes the current trajectory of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, noting that while sales are growing exponentially and battery costs have fallen by 89% since 2010, market forces alone are insufficient to meet climate targets. It recommends that policymakers target 60% ZEV sales by 2030 and 100% by 2035. The authors advocate for a policy portfolio combining ZEV sales standards and tailpipe GHG emissions standards, alongside consumer incentives, charging infrastructure investment, and critical mineral supply chain development. The document also highlights the role of 'learning curves' and the success of the solar industry in overcoming material bottlenecks as evidence that the EV transition can be accelerated through strategic policy.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides significant tax credits and financing to lower the cost of clean electricity and facilitate the retirement of fossil fuel infrastructure. Independent modeling suggests the IRA could make 73% to 76% clean electricity the lowest-cost pathway for the U.S. by 2030, potentially reducing electricity sector GHG emissions by 67% to 78% from 2005 levels. However, the report argues that realizing these benefits requires proactive state-level policy, including updated procurement assumptions by Public Utility Commissions, increased clean electricity standards from legislators, and strategic coordination by governors to address transmission and supply-chain constraints.

Low-temperature industrial heat (up to 165C) accounts for approximately 35 percent of U.S. industrial process heat demand and produced 171 million metric tons of CO2 in 2021. Industrial heat pumps are identified as the most efficient and cost-effective zero-carbon solution for this range, outperforming alternatives like electrolytic hydrogen, bioenergy, and carbon capture and sequestration. Modeling suggests that a full transition to heat pumps by 2050 would reduce industry GHG emissions by 284 MMT (16 percent) relative to a business-as-usual case and prevent over 3,000 premature deaths by 2050. Economically, this shift could increase U.S. GDP by over $42 billion in 2030 and create 275,000 jobs in 2030. While heat pumps have higher capital costs than natural gas technologies, the gap is small and likely narrowing due to rising natural gas prices and falling electricity costs. The report recommends federal financial support via the DOE's AMMTO and IEDO offices, as well as the implementation of technology-neutral energy efficiency and GHG emission standards.

The report analyzes the IRA's transportation incentives, including tax credits for new and used EVs, commercial vehicle credits, and charging infrastructure support. Through three modeling scenarios (Low, Moderate, High), it estimates that the IRA can increase passenger EV sales shares to 34% (Moderate) or 39% (High) by 2030 compared to a 29% business-as-usual baseline. It highlights that while commercial and light-duty truck adoption will see significant boosts, passenger EV adoption may be limited in the near term by stringent eligibility requirements regarding North American assembly and sourcing from 'entities of concern'. The authors argue that the IRA is a foundational step but insufficient alone to meet 1.5°C climate goals, recommending complementary EPA tailpipe standards, state-level clean vehicle mandates, and strategic electric grid investments.

The document argues that current US electricity market designs—including energy-only, capacity, and hybrid models—fail to support the rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) because they lack a functional 'energy markets cascade' that connects long-term investment to real-time pricing. To resolve this, the author proposes Organized Long-Term Markets (OLTMs), which would standardize long-term energy delivery contracts, increase liquidity and transparency, and allow for the optimization of diversified resource portfolios. The paper details the design of OLTMs, including the roles of producers, consumers, and facilitators, and applies the concept to the specific challenges faced by ERCOT, CAISO, and ISO New England.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is projected to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 37% to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, significantly closing the gap toward the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). While oil and gas leasing provisions may increase global emissions by 17 to 29 MMT CO2e, these are heavily offset by other IRA provisions. The legislation is expected to create up to 1.3 million jobs, prevent up to 4,500 premature deaths from air pollution, and increase U.S. GDP by 0.65% to 0.77% by 2030.

Energy Innovation's modeling indicates that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 37-41% below 2005 levels by 2030, closing 50-66% of the gap between business-as-usual projections and the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Despite an estimated increase of up to 50 million metric tons (MMT) in emissions from required oil and gas leasing, the net effect is overwhelmingly positive, with at least 24 tons of emissions avoided for every ton generated by leasing provisions. The IRA is projected to create 1.4 to 1.5 million jobs and prevent 3,700 to 3,900 premature deaths by 2030, with health benefits disproportionately benefiting communities of color.

The California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) 3.3.1 update finds that current policy commitments will leave California's 2030 emissions nearly 20% above the SB 32 target. To address this, Energy Innovation proposes a 'Deeper Decarbonization Scenario' focusing on rapid electrification of vehicles, appliances, and industry, alongside a strengthened clean energy standard. This approach is projected to lower 2030 emissions to 230 MMT of CO2e and generate significant economic and public health benefits, including $60 billion in monetized social benefits by 2050, while reducing reliance on unproven carbon dioxide removal technologies.

The policy brief advocates for the development of floating offshore wind on the U.S. West Coast to meet net-zero emissions goals, noting that it can provide reliable power during peak early evening demand and reduce land-use conflicts. It highlights the economic potential for job creation and port revitalization, specifically citing the Port of Humboldt Bay. The authors call for long-term federal tax credits, port infrastructure investment, proactive transmission planning, and accelerated siting to overcome current lacks in ambition compared to the East Coast.

The document examines how hybrid clean energy systems—specifically pairing solar generation with geothermal district heating and cooling—can address systemic energy injustices. It highlights that low-income communities and communities of color face higher risks from extreme heat and aging gas infrastructure, such as leaks in Massachusetts. The author advocates for a holistic approach, citing a Massachusetts pilot project that repurposes gas rights-of-way for geothermal networks and research from Croatia showing the efficiency of solar-geothermal hybrids. Such systems can reduce energy costs, eliminate methane emissions, and improve security through microgrid capabilities, provided that new market frameworks and data-processing technologies are implemented to manage the complexity of distributed energy systems.