ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL SOON LEAD GLOBAL AUTO MARKETS, BUT TOO SLOW TO HIT CLIMATE GOALS WITHOUT NEW POLICY

The report analyzes the current trajectory of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, noting that while sales are growing exponentially and battery costs have fallen by 89% since 2010, market forces alone are insufficient to meet climate targets. It recommends that policymakers target 60% ZEV sales by 2030 and 100% by 2035. The authors advocate for a policy portfolio combining ZEV sales standards and tailpipe GHG emissions standards, alongside consumer incentives, charging infrastructure investment, and critical mineral supply chain development. The document also highlights the role of 'learning curves' and the success of the solar industry in overcoming material bottlenecks as evidence that the EV transition can be accelerated through strategic policy.

• Electric vehicle battery prices experienced a significant real-term reduction of 89 percent between 2010 and 2021, which has fundamentally altered EV economics and improved affordability.
• The report recommends that policymakers set targets for zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) shares of new passenger vehicles to reach 60 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2035 to align with IEA Net Zero by 2050 modeling.
• New vehicle sales standards are identified as the foundational policy tool, with a recommendation to combine both ZEV sales standards and tailpipe greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards, as implemented in California and China.
• BloombergNEF research suggests that once a market passes a 5 percent EV sales threshold, it enters a mass adoption stage of exponential growth; both the U.S. and global new car sales passed this threshold in the fourth quarter of 2021.
• California's ZEV sales standard was a critical factor in Tesla's early survival and profitability, providing an estimated $2.48 billion in ZEV credits out of $3.2 billion in total support from the California program since 2009.
• The IEA's Net Zero by 2050 Scenario projects a passenger EV stock of 300 million by 2030, which is 50 percent higher than the 175 million projected under the Stated Policies Scenario.
• Critical mineral supply remains a challenge, with IEA estimates suggesting that current plans by 2030 would only meet half of the projected lithium and cobalt requirements under the Announced Pledges Scenario.
• The report argues that market failures, such as the failure of prices to account for climate and public health externalities and the systemic inertia of the existing petroleum-fueling network, will make the transition sub-optimally slow without policy intervention.
• The solar industry's history of overcoming silicon supply bottlenecks in the mid-2000s serves as a precedent that raw material constraints for EVs can be managed through investment and market dynamics.
• EVs provide significant public health co-benefits; a 2019 ICCT report estimated that motor vehicle tailpipe emissions were responsible for 385,000 premature deaths in 2015.

APA

BUSCH, C., & GOPAL, A. (2022). ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL SOON LEAD GLOBAL AUTO MARKETS, BUT TOO SLOW TO HIT CLIMATE GOALS WITHOUT NEW POLICY. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Electric-Vehicles-Will-Soon-Lead-Global-Auto-Markets-But-Too-Slow-To-Hit-Climate-Goals-Without-Policy.pdf

Chicago

BUSCH, CHRIS, and ANAND GOPAL. ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL SOON LEAD GLOBAL AUTO MARKETS, BUT TOO SLOW TO HIT CLIMATE GOALS WITHOUT NEW POLICY. Energy Innovation, 2022. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Electric-Vehicles-Will-Soon-Lead-Global-Auto-Markets-But-Too-Slow-To-Hit-Climate-Goals-Without-Policy.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=BUSCH |first1=CHRIS |last2=GOPAL |first2=ANAND |title=ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL SOON LEAD GLOBAL AUTO MARKETS, BUT TOO SLOW TO HIT CLIMATE GOALS WITHOUT NEW POLICY |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=November 2022 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Electric-Vehicles-Will-Soon-Lead-Global-Auto-Markets-But-Too-Slow-To-Hit-Climate-Goals-Without-Policy.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{busch2022electric, author = {BUSCH, CHRIS and GOPAL, ANAND}, title = {{ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL SOON LEAD GLOBAL AUTO MARKETS, BUT TOO SLOW TO HIT CLIMATE GOALS WITHOUT NEW POLICY}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Electric-Vehicles-Will-Soon-Lead-Global-Auto-Markets-But-Too-Slow-To-Hit-Climate-Goals-Without-Policy.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }