Decarbonizing Low-Temperature Industrial Heat in the U.S.

Low-temperature industrial heat (up to 165C) accounts for approximately 35 percent of U.S. industrial process heat demand and produced 171 million metric tons of CO2 in 2021. Industrial heat pumps are identified as the most efficient and cost-effective zero-carbon solution for this range, outperforming alternatives like electrolytic hydrogen, bioenergy, and carbon capture and sequestration. Modeling suggests that a full transition to heat pumps by 2050 would reduce industry GHG emissions by 284 MMT (16 percent) relative to a business-as-usual case and prevent over 3,000 premature deaths by 2050. Economically, this shift could increase U.S. GDP by over $42 billion in 2030 and create 275,000 jobs in 2030. While heat pumps have higher capital costs than natural gas technologies, the gap is small and likely narrowing due to rising natural gas prices and falling electricity costs. The report recommends federal financial support via the DOE's AMMTO and IEDO offices, as well as the implementation of technology-neutral energy efficiency and GHG emission standards.

• Low-temperature industrial heat, defined as temperatures up to 165C, represents about 35 percent of U.S. industrial process heat demand and emitted 171 million metric tons of CO2 in 2021, which is 3.5 percent of total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions.
• Industrial heat pumps are the most efficient and cost-effective method for supplying low-temperature heat, as they move heat rather than creating it, achieving coefficients of performance (COP) that can exceed 100 percent conversion of input energy.
• Other zero-carbon alternatives, including electrolytic hydrogen, bioenergy, and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), are deemed less economically competitive or practical for low-temperature heat due to high costs, lower efficiency, or scale requirements.
• Modeling a transition to heat pumps shows a reduction in industry sector GHG emissions of 77 MMT (5 percent) by 2030 and 284 MMT (16 percent) by 2050 compared to a business-as-usual scenario.
• The transition to industrial heat pumps is projected to provide significant public health and economic benefits, preventing over 3,000 premature deaths by 2050 and increasing U.S. GDP by more than $42 billion in 2030.
• The shift to heat pumps would increase industrial electricity demand from 946 TWh to 1,059 TWh by 2030 and to 1,428 TWh by 2050, acting as a catalyst for the retirement of coal, nuclear, and non-peaking natural gas plants in favor of wind and solar PV.
• In 2021, the total cost per unit heat output for heat pumps ($41-60/MWhth) was slightly higher than for natural gas technologies ($36-50/MWhth), but this gap is small and likely diminished by the August 2022 Henry Hub natural gas spot price of $30/MWh.
• Industrial heat pumps represent a very small fraction of the global heat pump market, accounting for $0.61 billion or under 2 percent of the total $53-68 billion market in 2021.
• The most effective near-term federal policy tools for increasing adoption are financial supports, including RD&D grants, tax incentives, and lending mechanisms, specifically through the DOE's Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technology Office (AMMTO) and Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization Office (IEDO).
• The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides funding that could accelerate adoption through the 48C Manufacturing Tax Credit and the Advanced Industrial Facilities Deployment Program.

APA

Rissman, J. (2022). Decarbonizing Low-Temperature Industrial Heat in the U.S. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Decarbonizing-Low-Temperature-Industrial-Heat-In-The-U.S.-Report-2.pdf

Chicago

Rissman, Jeffrey. Decarbonizing Low-Temperature Industrial Heat in the U.S. Energy Innovation, 2022. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Decarbonizing-Low-Temperature-Industrial-Heat-In-The-U.S.-Report-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rissman |first1=Jeffrey |title=Decarbonizing Low-Temperature Industrial Heat in the U.S. |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=October 2022 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Decarbonizing-Low-Temperature-Industrial-Heat-In-The-U.S.-Report-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rissman2022decarbonizing, author = {Rissman, Jeffrey}, title = {{Decarbonizing Low-Temperature Industrial Heat in the U.S.}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Decarbonizing-Low-Temperature-Industrial-Heat-In-The-U.S.-Report-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }