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Türkiye is facing significant grid connection bottlenecks, with 65% of unlicensed solar project applications rejected between February 2024 and April 2025. Hybrid solar plants, which share existing transmission lines with wind or hydroelectric facilities, offer a way to bypass these constraints without new grid investments. The report estimates a baseline hybrid solar potential of 8 GW, which could increase to 25.6 GW under more favorable economic conditions. Implementing these systems could raise total solar capacity to 30 GW and mitigate the impact of climate-induced droughts on hydroelectric generation.

The report identifies a base potential of 8 GW for hybrid solar plants at existing wind and hydroelectric sites in Türkiye, which could increase to over 25 GW under more favorable economic conditions. It highlights that 46% of this potential is located at dam-type hydroelectric plants, particularly in the Mediterranean and Eastern Anatolia regions. The document argues that realizing this potential would significantly increase the share of solar energy in the national grid and could mitigate the impact of drought-induced declines in hydroelectric production.

The report highlights a critical shortage of grid connection capacity in Türkiye, where 65% of unlicensed project applications (7.5 GW) were rejected between February 2024 and April 2025 due to regional constraints. Globally, 1.65 TW of wind, solar, and hydroelectric capacity is awaiting connection approval as of July 2024. The document identifies high investment costs, inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and cautious technical planning assumptions as primary drivers of these bottlenecks. It also notes procedural delays in Europe, where wind farm connection permits can take up to 9 years, and suggests that improving data transparency and tightening application criteria—as seen in France, Greece, and Romania—could accelerate the energy transition.

The EU is projected to reduce total gas demand by 7% by 2030 compared to 2023 levels, falling from 326 bcm to 302 bcm. This trend follows a sharp decline between 2021 and 2023, where demand dropped from 404 bcm to 326 bcm. Despite this decline, LNG import capacity is expected to increase by 54% by 2030 relative to 2023, suggesting a risk of over-investment in infrastructure. Simultaneously, the EU is increasing its electrification rate, with National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) indicating a planned increase from 23% today to 30% by 2030, approaching the EU-level target of 32-33%. All 17 NECPs that reported 2030 electricity demand forecast an increase compared to 2023, reflecting a transition toward replacing fossil fuels with domestically generated clean electricity.

The document argues that the current NECP process suffers from incomplete Member State reporting, outdated reporting categories, and poor data accessibility. It recommends that the European Commission enforce full reporting through 2050, expand the reporting template to include electrification rates, energy storage, demand-side flexibility, and grid planning, and mandate digital submissions to create a single, publicly available data source.

The EU aims for a 66% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030, requiring significant increases in wind and solar capacity. While solar deployment is outpacing expectations, wind power faces challenges from grid bottlenecks and permitting issues.

Analysis of EU National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) indicates a structural shift toward a cleaner, electrified economy, with gas demand projected to fall by 7% by 2030. The EU is targeting a 30% electrification rate and a 66% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030. While solar targets are achievable and potentially conservative compared to market outlooks, wind targets face significant implementation challenges due to grid and permitting bottlenecks. The report recommends that the European Commission enforce more comprehensive and digitally accessible reporting for future NECP cycles.

Ember expresses two primary concerns regarding India's draft VPPA framework: its potential to undermine power system flexibility and its role as a potentially misleading accounting mechanism for corporate clean energy claims. The organization argues that VPPAs may encourage continued investment in 'plain vanilla' solar without storage, exacerbating midday surpluses and grid balancing challenges. Ember also contends that VPPAs allow industrial consumers to claim 100% renewable energy usage through Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) without physically consuming clean power or contributing to grid stability, potentially diverting investment away from genuine 24/7 clean energy solutions.

The report argues that ASEAN's data centre industry requires a more diverse range of corporate renewable procurement options and stronger national sustainability frameworks to ensure sustainable growth. It evaluates various mechanisms—such as Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), green tariffs, and Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs)—noting that limited availability of these options, particularly in countries like Indonesia, hinders investment. The text emphasizes that national frameworks are essential for managing energy transition risks and improving data transparency, as international standards are not always tailored to regional needs.

The report examines the energy demands of data centres in ASEAN, particularly those driven by AI, and argues that a dual approach of increasing solar and wind power procurement and enhancing energy efficiency is essential. It highlights that current grid emission targets in key hubs are insufficient and suggests that at least 30% of electricity demand in five ASEAN data centre hubs could be met by wind and solar by 2030 without immediate battery storage. The document emphasizes the critical role of cooling systems in tropical climates and the potential for software optimisation to reduce energy consumption.

The report examines the surge in data centre development in Southeast Asia, highlighting how increasing electricity demand—particularly in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines—threatens climate targets due to reliance on fossil-fuel-dominated grids. It argues that without significant investment in solar and wind energy and improved energy efficiency, the digital boom will lead to a substantial rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

The report highlights that data centres in ASEAN could account for 2% to 30% of national power demand by 2030, risking a significant increase in emissions, particularly in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. It argues that approximately 30% of this demand can be met by solar and wind via grids without battery storage. The document advocates for more accessible corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), national sustainability frameworks, and advanced cooling technologies to ensure the sector's growth does not derail regional decarbonisation targets.

Mexico's electricity sector is highly dependent on US gas imports, with 54% of electricity generated using imported gas in 2024. The report argues that accelerating the transition to clean energy—specifically solar and wind—can enhance energy security and independence. Achieving a 45% clean generation target by 2030 would require 46 GW of new capacity, potentially reducing gas imports for power by 20% and saving $1.6 billion USD annually. Such a transition would also create over 434,000 direct jobs in construction and operation.

The report argues that the ASEAN Power Grid (APG) can unlock significant renewable energy potential and enhance energy security by connecting resource-rich countries with high-demand markets. It highlights specific planned solar and wind projects, the role of the ASEAN Interconnection Master Plan Study (AIMS), and the potential for 30 GW of additional renewable capacity to generate 109 TWh of electricity and create 182,000 jobs.

ASEAN electricity demand grew by approximately 50% between 2013 and 2023 and is projected to rise by up to 41% by 2030. While the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) targets 100,000 km of transmission line expansion for Southeast Asia between 2021 and 2030, the combined plans of Indonesia, Viet Nam, Thailand, and the Philippines total 45,078 km, covering only about 45% of that target. The document argues that grid planning must shift from merely meeting peak demand to managing the intermittency of wind and solar power, which saw cost reductions of 55% and 85% respectively in the decade to 2020.

The report argues that ASEAN's transmission grid expansion must roughly double to align with IEA pathways, as current national plans for Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Thailand cover only about 45% of the required expansion. It highlights that 30 GW of solar and wind potential is located along planned interconnection routes in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Brunei. To support this transition, the report proposes a six-pillar framework for future-ready grid planning—including smart modernisation, strategic expansion, and market reforms—and suggests learning from the integrated power systems of Europe and Southern Africa to move from bilateral to multilateral power trade.

The report outlines the necessity for ASEAN countries to shift from reactive grid expansion to proactive system transformation to support variable renewable energy. It proposes a six-pillar framework for future-ready grid planning—covering smart modernisation, strategic expansion, flexibility, regional integration, regulatory reform, and sustainable finance—and draws comparative lessons from the integrated power systems of Europe and Southern Africa to advocate for a more connected and resilient regional market.

The report examines the need for grid modernisation and policy alignment in ASEAN to support the transition to renewables. It highlights the current dominance of fossil fuels, the risk of curtailment seen in Vietnam, and the potential of clean flexibility options such as pumped hydro, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and demand-side management (DSM) to ensure grid stability and enable cross-border energy sharing.

China has surpassed its 2030 wind and solar capacity targets six years early, with clean electricity meeting 84.2% of additional demand in 2024. However, the report argues that the 'more renewables, more coal' era is ending and the next phase requires a shift from adding capacity to engineering a 'megasystem' involving smart grids, long-duration storage, and industrial electrification. While the 'new three' sectors (solar, batteries, EVs) have driven GDP, they face saturation and competition, making the development of next-generation technologies essential for sustaining China's 'growing by greening' economic strategy.

Ember's response to the ERAA 2025 consultation highlights significant discrepancies between ENTSO-E's proposed commodity prices and market futures, noting that fossil fuel prices are underestimated while CO2 prices are overestimated. The document argues that the ERAA underestimates battery storage and demand flexibility potential, fails to account for battery CAPEX reductions, and underestimates wind and solar capacities in several European countries compared to National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and industry forecasts.