The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out

This report by Ember analyzes the European Union's progress toward phasing out Russian gas by 2027. It finds that despite political commitments, Russian gas imports increased in 2024, and the EU is significantly over-investing in gas infrastructure that is likely to be underutilised by 2030. The report argues that the EU is risking a new dependency on volatile global LNG markets and recommends legally binding targets to end Russian gas imports.

• EU imports of Russian gas rose by 18% in 2024, increasing from 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) to 45 bcm. This growth was primarily driven by higher imports into Italy (+4 bcm), Czechia (+2 bcm), and France (+1.7 bcm).
• The EU is expanding its gas import infrastructure far beyond forecasted demand. LNG import capacity is projected to rise from 203 bcm in 2023 to 313 bcm by 2030, a 54% increase. Combined with pipeline expansions, total gas supply capacity is expected to grow by 30% by 2030, potentially leaving 131 bcm of capacity underutilised.
• European gas prices experienced significant volatility in 2024, with the TTF benchmark rising 59% from 30 to 48 EUR/MWh. This has contributed to higher power prices for industry, which now pay double compared to China and the US.
• Despite their current reliance on Russian gas, landlocked countries Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia already possess sufficient non-Russian import infrastructure to meet their gas demands.
• The EU's shift from Russian pipeline gas to global LNG has increased exposure to price shocks and supplier instability. For example, US LNG imports fell from 43% of EU LNG imports in 2018 to 29% in 2024.
• The EU continues to provide financial support for gas infrastructure despite its climate goals. Over EUR 37 billion in natural gas projects are currently in development, with some receiving funding from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) or loans from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

APA

Czyzak, D. P., Theisen, N., & Mindekova, T. (2025). The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Ember-Report-The-final-push-for-EU-Russian-gas-phase-out.pdf

Chicago

Czyzak, Dr Pawel, Nolan Theisen, and Tatiana Mindekova. The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Ember-Report-The-final-push-for-EU-Russian-gas-phase-out.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Czyzak |first1=Dr Pawel |last2=Theisen |first2=Nolan |last3=Mindekova |first3=Tatiana |title=The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out |publisher=Ember |date=27 March 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Ember-Report-The-final-push-for-EU-Russian-gas-phase-out.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{czyzak2025final, author = {Czyzak, Dr Pawel and Theisen, Nolan and Mindekova, Tatiana}, title = {{The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = mar, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Ember-Report-The-final-push-for-EU-Russian-gas-phase-out.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }