The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out

The report finds that EU imports of Russian gas increased by 18% in 2024, despite a goal to phase them out by 2027. It highlights a significant misalignment between gas infrastructure expansion and stagnating demand, predicting that supply capacity will exceed demand by 131 bcm by 2030. The document argues that the EU is replacing one fossil fuel dependency with another via LNG, which exposes the region to price volatility and high emissions. It recommends legally binding phase-out targets, reduced gas demand across all sectors, and more efficient use of existing infrastructure to ensure energy security and climate alignment.

• The European gas price benchmark (TTF) rose 59% during 2024, moving from 30 to 48 EUR/MWh, which contributed to higher European power prices and reduced industrial competitiveness compared to the US and China.
• EU gas supply capacity is projected to exceed demand by 26% (131 bcm) by 2030. This is driven by a 54% increase in LNG import capacity and new pipeline construction, risking the creation of stranded assets and waste of public funds.
• Despite their current reliance on Russian gas, Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia have sufficient alternative supply options through EU-funded grid upgrades; the technical capacity of non-Russian infrastructure in these countries already exceeds their gas demand.
• The EU's shift toward LNG has increased exposure to global market volatility and supplier instability. US LNG imports dropped from 43% of EU LNG imports in 2018 to 29% in 2024, and US LNG emissions are noted to be comparable to coal.
• Financial support for natural gas subsidies increased five-fold in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, and in 2023, support remained four times higher than pre-crisis levels.

APA

Czyzak, D. P., Theisen, N., & Mindekova, T. (2025). The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Ember-Report-The-final-push-for-EU-Russian-gas-phase-out.pdf

Chicago

Czyzak, Dr Pawel, Nolan Theisen, and Tatiana Mindekova. The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Ember-Report-The-final-push-for-EU-Russian-gas-phase-out.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Czyzak |first1=Dr Pawel |last2=Theisen |first2=Nolan |last3=Mindekova |first3=Tatiana |title=The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out |publisher=Ember |date=27 March 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Ember-Report-The-final-push-for-EU-Russian-gas-phase-out.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{czyzak2025final, author = {Czyzak, Dr Pawel and Theisen, Nolan and Mindekova, Tatiana}, title = {{The final push for EU Russian gas phase-out}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = mar, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Ember-Report-The-final-push-for-EU-Russian-gas-phase-out.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }