Australia’s coal mining emissions paradox

This report by Ember examines the 'paradox' of Australia's coal industry, where coal production increased by 170% between 1990 and 2022 while reported fugitive emissions remained nearly flat. The report attributes this trend to the closure of high-emitting underground mines and a shift toward open-cut mining, which relies on estimated rather than measured emissions. It warns that a transition to site-specific reporting methods has significantly lowered reported emissions, particularly in New South Wales, and that proposed mine expansions could reverse recent emissions declines.

• Between 1990 and 2022, Australia's coal production grew by 170%, increasing from 201 million tonnes to 542 million tonnes, yet reported fugitive emissions only increased by 0.17%. Consequently, the emissions intensity of the coal sector decreased by 63% over this period.
• The coal industry has shifted heavily toward open-cut mining, which accounted for more than 85% of all coal production by 2022. This shift has increased the reliance on estimated emissions data rather than direct monitoring, as open-cut mines use gas models from 1991 instead of the direct measurement approaches used by underground mines.
• A methodological shift from state-based average emissions factors (Method 1) to site-specific estimates (Method 2) has led to a significant drop in reported emissions. Research from Reputex indicates that these company-led estimates have consistently decreased reported fugitive methane emissions by 65–70%.
• The impact of the accounting shift is most pronounced in New South Wales (NSW), where the reported fugitive emissions intensity of open-cut mines is six times lower than the state-based emissions factor. In contrast, reporting in Queensland remains largely aligned with state-based factors.
• The primary driver of actual emissions reductions has been the closure of 'super-emitting' underground mines, often due to age or safety incidents. Examples include the closure of West Wallsend Colliery in 2016 and Austar coal mine in 2020, as well as partial closures of Appin, North Goonyella, and Grosvenor mines following methane-related fires or explosions.
• Future emissions gains are threatened by 27 proposed coal mining projects not yet included in forward estimates. Specific risks include the Narrabri underground mine's license extension to 2044, the Lake Vermont Meadowbrook expansion, and a potential 57% annual emissions increase if the Tahmoor coal mine's modification request is granted.

APA

Wright, C. (2025). Australia’s coal mining emissions paradox. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Rising-Coal-Production-Falling-Emissions_24032025.pdf

Chicago

Wright, Chris. Australia’s coal mining emissions paradox. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Rising-Coal-Production-Falling-Emissions_24032025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wright |first1=Chris |title=Australia’s coal mining emissions paradox |publisher=Ember |date=27 March 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Rising-Coal-Production-Falling-Emissions_24032025.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wright2025australias, author = {Wright, Chris}, title = {{Australia’s coal mining emissions paradox}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = mar, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/03/Rising-Coal-Production-Falling-Emissions_24032025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }