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228 documents from Basque Centre for Climate Change
Investigación urbana en BC3: Cómo la ciencia del cambio climático puede apoyar la elaboración de la Política Urbana
The policy brief highlights the critical role of cities in achieving climate change containment and adaptation goals. It asserts that science can assist local policymakers by providing high-quality information and developing specialized methodologies. The authors argue that the urban scale is an ideal environment for strengthening the link between scientific research and policy implementation.
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Document type: Policy brief
Acercando Ciencia y Política para Mitigar y Adaptar las Ciudades al Cambio Climático: Retos y Oportunidades en el Contexto de la Declaración Vasca
The document highlights the role of science in achieving urban climate objectives under the Basque Declaration, while noting that divergent interests between science and policy, as well as the difficulty of balancing scientific rigor with practical applicability, present both challenges and opportunities.
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Document type: Policy brief
Beyond ecosystem services: a food security perspective
The authors argue that traditional ecosystem services (EServ) frameworks are insufficient for modelling food provision because they focus solely on flows from nature to humans, neglecting critical human-to-nature and human-to-human interactions. To address this, the paper suggests an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach combined with a 'social-ecological governance compass' to capture how individual behaviors—categorized by cooperation, competition, conformation, and differentiation—influence collective food security outcomes. Using a case study from the Zomba District of Malawi, the paper demonstrates that cooperative economic behavior and differentiated production patterns can optimize the flow of benefits from nature to humans through social networks, such as labor exchange and food banking, which are often overlooked in market-driven paradigms.
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Document type: Research paper
The role of flexible biofuel policies in meeting biofuel mandates
The study uses a GTAP-BIO computable general equilibrium model to analyze the relationship between biofuel mandates and feedstock price volatility. It finds that while yield declines significantly increase prices for sugar crops, grains, and oilseeds, the impact on biofuel prices themselves is small. The authors argue that flexible policies, specifically production waivers during low-yield years, can significantly reduce feedstock price spikes, though the effectiveness of such waivers decreases if their implementation is delayed by one year.
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Document type: Research paper
What determines the magnitude of the economic impact of climate finance in recipient countries?
The research uses Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) and a global multi-regional input-output framework to examine how value-added creation from climate finance is distributed between recipient and donor countries. It identifies four primary drivers of economic impact: value-added intensity (VAiE), domestic multiplier (DME), foreign multiplier (FME), and trade structure (TSE). The study finds that Brazil and India are often benchmarks for retaining local benefits, while the USA and Japan are benchmarks for capturing spillovers, with results varying by the type of climate action (e.g., renewable energy vs. adaptation).
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Document type: Research paper
Industrial and terrestrial carbon leakage under climate policy fragmentation
The study examines how fragmented climate policies, where some regions implement carbon taxes while others do not, lead to 'carbon leakage'—the relocation of emissions to non-participating regions. It distinguishes between industrial carbon leakage (ICL), driven by fossil fuel price changes, and terrestrial carbon leakage (TCL), driven by land-use changes. The findings indicate that TCL is the dominant form of leakage until 2050, primarily due to deforestation in non-participating regions as food and bioenergy production shift away from participating areas. The research concludes that the total leakage rate decreases as the size of the climate coalition increases, but even the most inclusive fragmented scenarios fail to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C by 2100.
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Document type: Research paper
La cumbre de París: el comienzo del fin de la economía del carbono
The Paris Agreement establishes a coordinated global framework covering 98% of emissions, replacing the Kyoto Protocol's 14% coverage. It implements a five-year cycle for increasing national ambition to close a 15 gigatonne emissions gap and includes a commitment to review the 100 billion dollar annual climate aid target upward starting in 2025.
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Document type: Briefing
Parisko hitzarmena: Karbonoaren ekonomiaren amaieraren hasiera
The document highlights the Paris Agreement as a foundation for coordinated global action, noting that it covers 98% of emissions compared to the 14% covered by the Kyoto Protocol. It specifies that national ambitions will increase every five years to close a 15-gigaton gap and mentions the goal of mobilizing 100 billion dollars annually for climate support, with a review scheduled from 2025 onwards.
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Document type: Briefing
THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF THE SEA LEVEL IN THE BASQUE COUNTRY
The document examines sea level fluctuations in the Basque Country across geological timescales, noting a significant acceleration in the 20th century compared to the previous 7,000 years. It contrasts process-based and semi-empirical global models to project future rises, estimating that the Basque coast could see an increase of 41-57 cm by 2100 depending on the emissions scenario.
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Document type: Policy brief
URBAN RESEARCH AT BC3: HOW CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE CAN SUPPORT URBAN POLICY MAKING
The document outlines various BC3 research initiatives aimed at improving urban resilience and sustainability. Key examples include flood-risk modeling in Bilbao and Zurich, heat-health warning system evaluations in Madrid, and the socio-economic analysis of energy efficiency plans. It emphasizes the necessity of science-policy collaboration to create cost-efficient, data-driven urban interventions.
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Document type: Policy brief
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE BASQUE COUNTRY: IMPACT ON HEALTH AND ADAPTATION MEASURES
The document outlines expected climate impacts in the Basque Country, including rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and altered precipitation, which threaten public health through heat waves, flooding, and increased pollutants. It identifies 26 adaptation measures, highlighting the cost-effectiveness and co-benefits of ecosystem-based solutions like Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) and behavioral changes in transport.
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Document type: Policy brief
THE PARIS SUMMIT: THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE CARBON ECONOMY
The Paris Agreement represents a milestone in global climate policy by establishing a universal, hybrid framework for climate action. While it lacks binding implementation of national targets to ensure the participation of major emitters like the USA and China, it introduces a mandatory five-year cycle of review and increased ambition to close a 15-gigatonne emissions gap. The agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to 2°C, with an aspiration for 1.5°C, requiring net-zero emissions from 2050 onwards. It also reaffirms a collective goal of mobilizing $100 billion annually for developing countries from 2020, with a planned upward review by 2025.
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Document type: Policy brief
Bridging Science and Policy to Mitigate and Adapt Cities to Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities in the Context of the Basque Declaration
The document examines the intersection of science and urban policy, identifying that while research can provide robust data to validate decision-making and increase citizen trust, significant gaps exist due to differing timeframes, technical languages, and motivations. It argues that co-creating solutions and bridging the gap between researchers and practitioners is essential for the successful implementation of the Basque Declaration's sustainability goals.
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Document type: Policy brief
ENGAGING THE PUBLIC WITH SCIENCE IN THE BASQUE COUNTRY: ON SCIENTISTS EXPERIENCES AND PERSPECTIVES
The document presents findings from a study of scientists at the University of the Basque Country (UPV-EHU) and the Basic and Excellence Research Centres (BERC) network. It finds that scientists primarily view science communication as a social responsibility and duty, with a strong preference for face-to-face interactions. The study highlights that scientists believe the success of communication depends on the benefit to the audience and is largely within the speaker's control through adaptability and preparation. The authors suggest that these scientists already embody many of the goals of Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI), though they note that real-world constraints like time and resources may impact these ideals.
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Document type: Policy brief
COP22 IN MARRAKECH CONFIRMS WORLDWIDE COMMITMENT TO FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE
The COP22 conference in Marrakech focused on establishing the 'rulebook' for the Paris Agreement, with parties agreeing to a 2018 deadline for its operationalization. Key outcomes included the approval of a work programme for transparency and adaptation, the announcement of US$81 million for the Adaptation Fund, and the launch of the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action to catalyze pre-2020 efforts. Despite political uncertainty regarding the United States, the document notes a strong commitment from emerging economies and the private sector to pursue a low-carbon transition.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Climate Agreement just reached in Paris
The Paris Climate Agreement establishes a global goal to keep temperature increases well below 2.0C, aiming for 1.5C and net-zero emissions between 2050 and 2100. However, current national commitments are insufficient, projecting a 2.7C increase, necessitating periodic reviews every five years starting in 2018. The agreement also mandates US$ 100 billion in support for developing countries from 2020 to assist with adaptation and emission reductions.
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Document type: Statement
La cumbre de París: un éxito de la política climática
The author evaluates the Paris Climate Agreement as a success, highlighting its binding nature for nearly all countries, the establishment of a transparent five-year review system for INDCs, and the goal to limit global temperature rise to 2°C. While noting the mobilization of 100 billion dollars annually from 2020 for developing nations, the author criticizes the omission of specific terms like 'decarbonization' or 'emissions neutrality'.
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Document type: Statement
Tribuna de Unai Pascual (Ikerbasque, Fundación Vasca para la Ciencia & Basque Centre for Climate Change, BC3) y 13 firmas más para #CDO (Creadores de Opinión Verde) en la blogosfera de @efeverde con ocasión de la COP21 de París
The text calls for rigorous, responsibility-driven journalism and better scientific communication to address the global challenge of climate change, warning against alarmism and the influence of financial lobbies.
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Document type: Statement
US Climate Policy: A critical assessment of intensity standards
The paper evaluates whether intensity standards for energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries are an efficient alternative to uniform carbon taxes in the US. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the authors find that while lax standards may slightly reduce leakage, stringent standards can actually increase carbon leakage and lead to substantial welfare losses compared to economy-wide emission pricing. The study concludes that intensity standards are primarily driven by political economy considerations rather than economic efficiency.
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Document type: Research paper
Health impacts of atmospheric pollution in a changing climate
The paper examines the severe health and economic burdens of air pollution, noting that global premature deaths could double by 2050. It details the Impact Pathway Approach (IPA) for monetizing health damages and analyzes European industrial emissions data, identifying the power generating sector as the largest contributor to damage costs. The authors propose enhancing these assessments by integrating satellite-based Earth observation data from the MACC/Copernicus services to reduce model errors and provide higher resolution global and regional air quality analysis.
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Document type: Research paper