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Green Curses: Renewable Energy and the Potential for Conflict in Africa
The document argues that while Africa's shift toward renewable energy is essential for climate goals and poverty reduction, it risks a "green resource curse" where green energy projects and mineral mining fuel conflict. It identifies three primary conflict trajectories: the establishment of projects (often involving land disputes and "green grabbing"), the mining of critical minerals (linked to weak institutions and rebel financing), and energy production (related to grid access and geopolitical shifts). While most conflicts are local and non-violent, the authors warn of potential for large-scale civil unrest and geopolitical tensions as the global energy balance shifts away from fossil fuels.
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Document type: Policy brief
Digitisation of African Agriculture Through BRICS Partnerships
The policy brief examines how BRICS partnerships can accelerate the digitisation of African agriculture to drive economic growth. It identifies key barriers in Africa, such as weak coordination and low FDI, and highlights successful digital agricultural models in China, Brazil, India, Russia, and South Africa. The author recommends using the New Development Bank (NDB) and the AfCFTA to improve infrastructure and trade, while urging African nations to adopt policies that foster digital literacy and agri-tech entrepreneurship.
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Document type: Policy brief
Strengthening Kenya’s Legal Framework for Protection of Environmental Human Rights Defenders
This policy recommendation by Natural Justice advocates for the creation of a specific legal framework in Kenya to protect Environmental Human Rights Defenders (EHRDs), arguing that current protections are only inferable through the interpretation of various existing laws.
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Document type: Policy brief
After the Paris Summit: a global financial architecture that works for Africa
The author assesses the outcomes of the Paris summit for a new global financial pact, noting the emergence of a unified African voice demanding debt restructuring, increased climate finance, and equal representation in global institutions. While acknowledging progress such as Zambia's debt restructuring and the World Bank's debt pause for disaster-hit countries, the author emphasizes the need for a 'Marrakesh Declaration' to solidify Africa's position ahead of future summits in Nairobi, Marrakesh, and Dubai.
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Document type: Statement
Consuming Africa: The Impact of Tourism on Local African Economies
The author contends that while tourism in Africa has grown significantly, its developmental impact is limited by 'economic leakages' where revenue is expatriated to foreign economies. Using Zanzibar as a case study, the paper demonstrates that foreign-owned all-inclusive resorts dominate the high-end market, while locals are relegated to unskilled labor and struggle to integrate their goods into the supply chain. The document traces this trend to IMF Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs) of the 1980s, which liberalized economies for foreign investment. To mitigate these issues, the author suggests investing in local infrastructure to meet international standards and promoting intra-African leisure tourism.
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Document type: Research paper
The Unwavering Faith of Bora Imani: Lessons from Environmental Injustices
The document details how quarrying by H-Young for the Malindi-Lamu road project in Kilifi County, Kenya, exacerbated water scarcity and health risks for the Bora Imani community, despite promises of poverty alleviation. While interventions by Natural Justice led to temporary remedies from NEMA and the Public Health Office, the company's eventual decommissioning of the site in February 2023 left the community struggling with water scarcity. The case emphasizes the need for sustainable environmental remedies, robust decommissioning plans, and climate-sensitive Environmental Impact Assessments.
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Document type: Case study
Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) Mechanisms and the Right to a Clean, Healthy, and Sustainable Environment
The document asserts that ISDS mechanisms act as a major barrier to environmental and climate policies by allowing foreign investors to challenge state regulations. It highlights a lack of transparency, the phenomenon of 'regulatory chill' where states avoid policy for fear of arbitration, and the failure of 'modernized' treaties to limit risks. The authors argue that investment treaties do not significantly increase foreign direct investment but do impose high costs on states, particularly in the Global South. They recommend that states terminate old treaties, carve out climate measures from ISDS scope, and shift dispute resolution to domestic judicial systems.
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Document type: Statement
Ist die deutsch-afrikanische Zusammenarbeit im Bereich globale Gesundheit tatsächlich wechselseitig und zum beiderseitigen Vorteil?
The author argues that German-African health cooperation remains shaped by colonial legacies and prioritizes European security and economic interests over African public health needs. While the German government promotes a multilateral approach and supports institutions like the WHO and Africa CDC, the author highlights a 'securitization' of health that marginalizes the poor and protects the privileged. Key tensions include the 'Triple-Win' nursing recruitment program, which may drain health systems in origin countries, and the BioNTech mRNA plant in Rwanda, which operates outside the WHO-led technology transfer hub. The paper calls for a shift toward a decolonial framework based on humility, historical justice, and a shared responsibility for global public goods, including climate-related health financing.
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Document type: Research paper
Energiekooperation zwischen Afrika und Deutschland: Entwicklung, Diplomatie, Transformation
The paper analyzes the shift in German-African energy relations from a focus on development aid to a complex mix of energy diplomacy, foreign policy, and technical cooperation. It highlights a tension between Germany's goals for a green transition (including hydrogen partnerships) and its strategic interests in diversifying fossil fuel imports. The author critiques 'energy colonialism' and the financialization of projects, recommending that future cooperation be grounded in 'energy justice' and a value-chain approach to ensure local benefits and social standards.
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Document type: Research paper
Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040
The Horn of Africa faces severe challenges including governance failure, chronic food insecurity, and high poverty rates, with no countries on track to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The region is characterized by a very young population and high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is increasingly threatened by climate change and conflict. While Ethiopia and Sudan dominate the regional GDP, most nations suffer from poor infrastructure and dysfunctional health and education systems. The report models an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario involving improvements in governance, agriculture, and human capital, which could significantly increase regional GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2040.
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Document type: Report
Kenya's Climate Change Bill: Paving the Way for Sustainable Development and Carbon Markets
The Climate Change (Amendment) Bill, 2023 aims to integrate carbon markets into Kenya's climate response to attract investment and achieve low-cost emissions reductions. However, Natural Justice warns that without robust legislation, these markets could allow developed nations to continue burning fossil fuels while negatively impacting the global south. The document identifies several critical flaws in the Bill, including the removal of specific requirements for civil society and marginalized community representatives on the National Climate Change Council, which may contravene the Constitution of Kenya 2010. It also highlights a lack of clear role distinctions between national and county governments and insufficient procedures for effective public participation. Regarding the forestry sector, the Bill suggests that afforestation and reforestation will be part of an emissions trading system, necessitating strict monitoring of emissions. Natural Justice urges the government to delay implementing carbon market mechanisms until all necessary regulations are adopted through a transparent public participation process.
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Document type: Statement
Cost of Capital for Renewable Energy Investments in Developing Economies And the need for a Global Credit Guarantee Facility
The research identifies a significant gap between solar radiation potential and installed capacity in lower-income countries, driven by high costs of capital linked to sovereign, political, and off-taker risks. To address this, the authors propose a Global Credit Guarantee Facility (GCGF) with a suggested capitalization of USD 6.6 billion to provide partial guarantees for cross-border debt. The paper models two approaches for the GCGF's impact: one reducing overall risk premiums by an average of 6% and another reducing them by 3% by focusing solely on default rates. The facility aims to mobilize approximately USD 120 billion in debt to meet the 2030 solar targets of shortlisted emerging market and developing economy countries.
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Document type: Research paper
A question of influence?
The report identifies a growing, commercially driven marketplace for 'influence as a service' in Kenya, where digital entrepreneurs monetise their networks to amplify political narratives. While techniques mirror global trends, the operations were predominantly indigenous. The study highlights the use of bots, astroturfing, and conspiratorial narratives—such as the 'deep state'—to undermine democratic institutions and legacy media. It warns that the integration of artificial intelligence could accelerate disinformation, creating an 'automated disinformation arms race' that threatens fragile democracies across Africa.
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Document type: Case study
German-African Health Relations and the Need for Change
The author argues that German-African health cooperation is shaped by a colonial legacy and currently prioritizes European security and economic interests over African public health needs. While Germany promotes multilateralism and human rights, the document highlights contradictions in vaccine equity, intellectual property regimes, and the recruitment of African health workers. The author calls for a transition toward a partnership based on solidarity, climate and health justice, and respect for an 'African New Public Health Order'.
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Document type: Research paper
Dekarbonisierung des afrikanischen Verkehrssektors: Der Fall Sansibar (EN)
The document discusses the role of the AfCFTA Investment Protocol and the proposed Pan-African Trade and Investment Agency in attracting foreign and domestic investment to Africa. It emphasizes that reducing tariffs alone is insufficient to increase intra-African trade; instead, Africa must scale up the production of complex goods through regional value chains. The author suggests that coordinating investment promotion around specific sectors, such as the automotive industry, can create agglomeration economies and attract skilled labor, providing a more feasible path for the AfCFTA Secretariat than a broad coordination of all 54 national investment agencies.
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Document type: Case study
Revisiting the Rising Rift Valley Lakes: A Glimpse into Kihoto's Struggles
The document examines the devastating impact of the 2020 floods in Naivasha, Kenya, specifically within the Kihoto informal settlement. It details how rising lake levels, attributed to climate change, displaced over 1,400 residents, destroyed livelihoods in agriculture and fishing, and coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic to exacerbate vulnerability. The study highlights the specific struggles of women, youth, and persons with disabilities, while documenting the community's calls for permanent resettlement schemes, infrastructural improvements, and inclusive social support.
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Document type: Case study
Service Design for Development Interventions
The research explores the application of service design in the Global South, using case studies in Kenya and Uganda to demonstrate how human-centred tools can address multidimensional poverty and complex social-ecological systems. It proposes a conceptual framework bridging service design with the capabilities approach to better align interventions with local contexts and normative development goals.
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Document type: Research paper
Resilient Agriculture Innovations for Nature (RAIN) Challenge Guidelines for Applicants
The Resilient Agriculture Innovations for Nature (RAIN) challenge, a partnership between the Global Resilience Partnership (GRP) and Munich Re Foundation, seeks nature-positive agricultural innovations in East Africa. Open to not-for-profit organisations, the challenge provides selected winners with tailored mentoring, a Leadership Academy, communications support, and potential next-stage funding for implementation and scaling. Applications are evaluated on a 100-point scale across criteria including innovativeness, impact, equity, scalability, viability, team composition, and risk.
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Document type: Guide
Strengthening Marine and Coastal EbA in Climate Policies in Southern Africa
The document assesses the state of marine and coastal ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) in Southern Africa, finding that while there is growing political commitment and various local success stories, marine concerns are frequently overshadowed by terrestrial issues in national climate policies. It identifies significant hurdles to implementation, including capacity gaps, siloed government coordination, insufficient financing, and unequal resource rights. The author recommends establishing enabling bodies to support NDCs, adopting a 'seascape' approach to integrate land-sea interfaces, and scaling innovative financing like blue carbon and debt-for-nature swaps.
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Document type: Research paper
Livelihood Opportunities Through Scaling Marine and Coastal EbA
The paper examines marine and coastal ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, focusing on how these interventions can provide sustainable livelihood opportunities. It identifies a successful incremental model used in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region, where periodic fishery closures (PFCs) serve as an entry point to broader conservation and restoration efforts. The study highlights the role of Locally Managed Marine Areas (LMMAs) and networks like MIHARI and Mwambao in scaling these benefits. While some projects rely on large external funding, the paper argues for community-centered designs that prioritize immediate food security to ensure long-term sustainability and uptake.
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Document type: Research paper