Green Curses: Renewable Energy and the Potential for Conflict in Africa

This policy brief from the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) examines the 'green resource curse' in Africa, where the transition to renewable energy and the mining of green technology minerals may trigger various levels of conflict. The authors identify three primary conflict trajectories: the establishment of renewable energy projects, the mining of minerals for green technology, and the production and distribution of renewable energy. While many resulting conflicts are local and non-violent, the brief warns of the potential for large-scale civil conflict, organized crime, and geopolitical tensions as the global energy balance shifts.

• The 'green resource curse' describes how the transition to green energy in Africa may mirror traditional resource curse dynamics, where natural wealth fuels poverty, autocratic rule, and violent conflict.
• The establishment of renewable energy projects can trigger conflict through 'green grabbing'—the appropriation of land for environmental purposes—and the failure to consult local populations or respect non-material, spiritual attachments to land.
• Mining for green technology minerals (such as cobalt, lithium, and copper) risks fueling conflict through state capture in countries with weak institutions and the financing of rebel groups and organized crime.
• Renewable energy production and distribution can cause conflict when local communities in energy-producing areas are excluded from the electrical grid or when actors compete for control of energy systems.
• The shift toward renewable energy is expected to alter geopolitical balances by reducing asymmetrical dependency on oil and gas suppliers, though this may create new tensions over regional energy co-dependence and economic decline in fossil-fuel-dependent states.
• Local conflicts over renewable energy often center on compensation and land use; for example, the Kinangop Wind Farm in Kenya was abandoned after community protests over land dispossession and health fears led to violence and legal action.

APA

Rustad, S. A., & Dupuy, K. (2023). Green Curses: Renewable Energy and the Potential for Conflict in Africa. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7fdd5433-7d38-4755-a3b4-f1cf30e1683b/Rustad Dupuy - Green Curses Renewable Energy and the Potential for Conflict in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 08-2023.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rustad, Siri Aas, and Kendra Dupuy. Green Curses: Renewable Energy and the Potential for Conflict in Africa. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2023. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7fdd5433-7d38-4755-a3b4-f1cf30e1683b/Rustad Dupuy - Green Curses Renewable Energy and the Potential for Conflict in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 08-2023.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{rustad2023green, author = {Rustad, Siri Aas and Dupuy, Kendra}, title = {{Green Curses: Renewable Energy and the Potential for Conflict in Africa}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2023}, month = aug, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7fdd5433-7d38-4755-a3b4-f1cf30e1683b/Rustad Dupuy - Green Curses Renewable Energy and the Potential for Conflict in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 08-2023.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }