Search Climate Insights Directory

The report challenges the 'miracle crop' narrative of jatropha, presenting ten reasons why industrial-scale plantations fail. It argues that jatropha requires fertile land, significant water, and chemical inputs to be productive, contradicting claims that it thrives on marginal land. This leads to competition with food production, displacement of local communities, and biodiversity loss. Economically, the report highlights a pattern of failed investment projects and unrealistic yield promises. Environmentally, it asserts that land-use change for jatropha can increase carbon emissions, undermining its purpose as a climate solution.

The document provides a comprehensive survey of quantitative research on the health impacts of climate change, categorizing studies by their methodological approach (primary, secondary, and comparative risk assessments) and the statistical models employed (time-series, non-parametric, and panel/spatial models). It highlights the complex relationship between climatic variables and diseases, particularly malaria, and reviews major global reports from the WHO and the Stern Review to outline the broader economic and public health implications of global warming.

The document argues that China shifted from providing unconditional support to the Sudanese government to adopting a more activist role, applying direct pressure on Khartoum to cooperate with the international community and the International Criminal Court. This transition was driven by international pressure, the need to be seen as a 'responsible stakeholder', and the realization that official Sudanese rhetoric differed from the reality in Darfur. Despite this shift, the author notes that Darfurian armed resistance movements and some civil society organizations continued to view China with distrust, occasionally targeting Chinese oil interests.

The paper analyzes why Kenya successfully adopted a new constitution in 2010 while Zimbabwe remained stalled in its outreach programme. It identifies shared challenges in both nations, including a history of elite-driven constitutions and disputes over executive power and land. The author attributes Kenya's progress to the strategic alignment of leaders President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga, whereas Zimbabwe's process is hindered by a fragile power-sharing agreement between ZANU-PF and the MDC and the influence of 'securocrats' who favor the old order of impunity.

The report examines food security policies within the Southern African Development Community (SADC), noting that the region exists in a state of permanent food-security crisis. It discusses the role of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) and the risks associated with strategic grain reserves and inappropriate trade policies. The document emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities and short-term safety nets for vulnerable populations.

The document argues that Zimbabwe is not ready for elections due to a lack of a new constitution, financial constraints, and ongoing political instability within the Government of National Unity (GNU). It highlights that the security forces remain under Zanu-PF control and that essential reforms in media laws and human rights have not progressed, risking a return to the violence seen in 2008.

The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) faces existential threats driven by internal dissonance over revenue distribution and trade agreements. South Africa currently provides significant fiscal subsidies to Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland (BLNS) through a revenue pool that is deemed unsustainable and procyclical. Tensions are further exacerbated by the interim Economic Partnership Agreements (IEPAs) signed by Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland, which South Africa and Namibia refuse to sign. The author argues that the dissolution of the customs union could occur if these trade differences are not resolved, potentially leading to the economic collapse of Lesotho and Swaziland. To ensure stability, the document proposes a regional development agenda and the creation of a development fund to reduce BLNS dependence on the revenue pool and preserve the common external tariff.

The document outlines the strategic outlook for the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), identifying critical drivers such as the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations and the stability of the revenue-sharing pool. It proposes four scenarios: 'Laduma!' (deepened integration), 'Own Goal' (fracture but continued financial support), 'Red Card' (collapse and financial withdrawal), and 'Wild Card' (deepened integration despite reduced financial transfers).

The document examines the 'smart sanctions' imposed by Western nations on Zimbabwe, concluding that their effectiveness has been limited by implementation loopholes and regional support for the Mugabe regime. It argues that while these measures were intended to pressure the elite, they have been used by ZANU-PF as a political scapegoat for economic decline. The author suggests a middle ground of conditional lifting to reward progress and deflate anti-imperialist rhetoric.

The document analyzes the 40-year history of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), identifying its strengths in promoting public engagement and its failures in baseline data quality and mitigation enforcement. It argues that Human Rights Impact Assessment (HRIA) can avoid these pitfalls by adopting specific procedural improvements, such as earlier implementation, broader definitions of affected parties, and external monitoring of mitigation measures.

The report argues that the 2006–2008 global food crisis was a spike in a long-term trend of food insecurity in Southern Africa. It highlights the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) as the primary framework for coordinated regional responses, emphasizing long-term structural improvements over short-term reactionary measures. The analysis covers specific SADC and COMESA initiatives, the role of strategic grain reserves, and the impact of international trade subsidies on African agricultural productivity.

The National Chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs reviews the 2009-2010 period, highlighting South Africa's influence in the G20 and the BASIC group during the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit. It discusses the need for reform in Bretton Woods institutions and the challenges of democratic stability in Africa, specifically in Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and Sudan. The statement also outlines President Zuma's prioritisation of bilateral relations with Angola, Brazil, and the UK, and the establishment of the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA).

The author contends that South Africa is experiencing a retrenchment of its global diplomatic ambition under President Zuma, characterized by a lack of policy clarity and a 'managerial lacuna' within the government. While acknowledging the institutional legacy of the African Union left by former President Mbeki, the text warns that continental crises—including climate change, energy insecurity, and water stress—require decisive leadership that is currently absent. The author calls for greater policy coherence between the Department of International Relations and Co-Operation (DIRCO) and other state organs and the private sector, suggesting that DIRCO must modernize its diplomatic skills to include environmental and economic literacy to drive domestic growth.

The African Union (AU) faces a dilemma in Niger, where a military 'counter-coup' has overthrown President Tandja, who had previously used unconstitutional means to bypass term limits. While the AU has broadened its definition of 'unconstitutional change of government' to include incumbent leaders manipulating constitutions, it must now decide how to respond to a textbook military coup. The author argues that the AU must condemn the coup to avoid political instability, despite the potential for the military to restore constitutional rule. The situation is complicated by Niger's mineral wealth—specifically uranium, gold, and oil—and the strategic interests of foreign powers like France, which relies on Niger for uranium imports for its nuclear energy sector.

The report examines the hydrological constraints and governance regimes of transboundary river basins in the SADC region, arguing that while water is not a primary driver of conflict, robust institutional frameworks and policy harmonisation are essential for economic growth. It highlights the role of the SADC Water Protocol and the evolution of basin-specific regimes, proposing 'Parallel National Action' as a mechanism to align national policies without eroding state sovereignty.

The document analyzes the African Standby Force (ASF) as a critical component of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). It argues that while the ASF is designed to provide a rapid, multidimensional response to African crises—including the right to intervene in cases of war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity—its effectiveness is severely hindered by gaps in funding, logistics, administrative capacity, and political will. The author concludes that the ASF is unlikely to meet its projected 2010 operational capabilities and will likely have a modest impact on complex conflicts in the short to medium term.

The document examines the complex relationship between protected areas and conflict, noting that conservation efforts can either fuel social tensions or be exploited by military groups. It specifically analyzes transboundary protected areas (TBPAs), which are often established in conflict-prone regions with the intent of promoting peace, but may introduce complexities related to national sovereignty and border inequities. The authors propose the use of Peace and Conflict Impact Assessments (PCIAs)—tools derived from the humanitarian sector—to systematically evaluate how conservation interventions affect local and regional peace dynamics. The paper concludes that because TBPAs are often self-described as peacebuilding projects, they require rigorous, ground-tested measurement tools like PCIAs to ensure they 'do no harm' and actually support stability.

The report examines South Africa's energy security, highlighting a critical over-reliance on coal-fired power generated by the state utility Eskom. It argues that this dependency creates a conflict with the country's climate mitigation goals and international commitments. The author identifies structural and institutional barriers—specifically Eskom's market dominance and a lack of coordinated government policy—that hinder the adoption of renewable energy. The report suggests that South Africa must shift from a 'business as usual' fossil-fuel path toward a 'business unusual' approach, leveraging regional hydroelectric and gas potential within the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) to ensure a sustainable and secure energy future.

The paper argues that trade policies are often gender-blind and can reduce the policy space for states to implement pro-gender development strategies. It highlights the critical role of the informal economy, where approximately 70% of traders in sub-Saharan Africa are women, and suggests that regional trade agreements (RTAs) are better suited to women's needs than large global markets. The authors identify institutional and legal hurdles—rather than social traditions—as the primary obstacles to women's business growth. The document recommends the adoption of a 'gender perspective' in trade analysis and the creation of a gender-sensitivity yardstick for RTAs to ensure that trade liberalization does not exacerbate existing inequalities, particularly in the agricultural sector.

Mozambique possesses significant hydropower, natural gas, and coal potential, yet over 80% of its population lacks grid connectivity, relying instead on traditional biomass. The report details the country's transition from a centralized socialist economy to a liberalized market, highlighting the role of the 1997 Electricity Act in opening the sector to private investment. It examines the functions of key entities like Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM) and the National Energy Fund (FUNAE), while outlining strategic goals to increase electrification rates to 20% by 2020 and leverage regional power demand through the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP).