The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

The document provides a comprehensive survey of quantitative research on the health impacts of climate change, categorizing studies by their methodological approach (primary, secondary, and comparative risk assessments) and the statistical models employed (time-series, non-parametric, and panel/spatial models). It highlights the complex relationship between climatic variables and diseases, particularly malaria, and reviews major global reports from the WHO and the Stern Review to outline the broader economic and public health implications of global warming.

• The authors categorize quantitative health studies into three types: primary studies analyzing direct temperature effects on disease burden, secondary studies examining socio-economic effects via models like Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and Comparative Risk Assessments (CRA) that project future health effects using climate models.
• Research on malaria indicates it is highly sensitive to long-run climate changes, with specific associations found between transmission and maximum temperature anomalies in Kenya, and a five-fold increase in epidemic risk in the Indian region following El Niño events.
• Environmental management is estimated to be capable of preventing approximately 42% of the global malaria burden, which equates to half a million deaths annually, though this effectiveness varies by region from 36% in the Eastern Mediterranean to 64% in the Americas.
• General Equilibrium models have produced contrasting results regarding the net impact of temperature increases; some suggest a reduction in mortality due to decreased winter deaths in temperate climates, while others argue these findings are biased by omitting extreme weather events and human adaptation.
• The Stern Review suggests that global warming above 3-4°C would reduce global welfare, and increases of 5-6°C could result in a 5%-10% reduction in global GDP relative to a scenario without climate change.
• Current estimates suggest that 325 million people are seriously affected by climate change annually, with long-term consequences affecting over 235 million people today.
• Climate change is projected to cause over 150,000 annual deaths from malnutrition and approximately 95,000 fatalities from diarrhea, with over 90% of malaria and diarrhea deaths occurring in children aged 5 years or younger.
• The burden of vector-borne diseases is disproportionately distributed, with per capita mortality rates in developing nations being nearly 300 times greater than in developed regions.

APA

Grasso, M., Manera, M., Chiabai, A., & Markandya, A. (2010). The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20101025111719542911483.pdf

Chicago

Grasso, Margherita, Matteo Manera, Aline Chiabai, and Anil Markandya. The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2010. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20101025111719542911483.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Grasso |first1=Margherita |last2=Manera |first2=Matteo |last3=Chiabai |first3=Aline |last4=Markandya |first4=Anil |title=The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=October 2010 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20101025111719542911483.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{grasso2010health, author = {Grasso, Margherita and Manera, Matteo and Chiabai, Aline and Markandya, Anil}, title = {{The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2010}, month = oct, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20101025111719542911483.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }