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Global warming projections for 2100 have remained stagnant since 2021, with current policies leading to a median estimate of 2.7°C of warming. While clean energy investments now double those for fossil fuels, record-high fossil fuel subsidies and funding for prolonging projects are preventing the steep emissions decline required by the Paris Agreement. The briefing emphasizes that seven large emitters and the COP Troika countries, responsible for 63% of 2022 global emissions, must set more ambitious 2030 and 2035 targets to align with 1.5°C.

The Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter, launched at COP28 by 50 companies, is criticized for focusing on upstream operational emissions while ignoring the larger impact of burning produced fuels. Analysis shows that between January and September 2024, Charter members approved 68 new oil and gas fields containing 14 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which could release nearly 5 billion metric tonnes of CO2. Ten companies, including ADNOC, Saudi Aramco, Petrobras, TotalEnergies, and Shell, are responsible for over 90 percent of these new reserves. These projects represent a commitment of nearly USD 250 billion in expenditure. While the IEA's 1.5ºC pathway requires global production to decline by nearly 20 percent by 2030, Charter companies are projected to increase their production by 17 percent by 2030.

The re-election of Donald Trump may slow US clean technology deployment through the potential repeal of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds and EV tax credits, potentially shifting leadership to emerging economies. The global market for six key technologies—solar PV, wind turbines, EVs, batteries, electrolysers, and heat pumps—is projected to exceed USD 2 trillion by 2035, with global trade reaching USD 575 billion. China currently leads with 70% of the market for these technologies, though it faces risks from proposed US tariffs of 60% on all imports and 100% on EVs. Other nations may benefit: India could become a net exporter of clean technologies by 2035 with annual exports of USD 30 billion, and Brazil is well-positioned in wind turbine blade production, currently accounting for 5% of the global market. In the Global South, renewable energy potential is 400 times greater than fossil fuel production, and solar is expected to have lower upfront costs than coal in Vietnam from 2024 and in India from approximately 2027.

The author contends that hosting COP29 in Azerbaijan—a country with an authoritarian regime and a growing fossil fuel industry—threatens the summit's potential for real change. The text highlights Azerbaijan's lack of net-zero targets, its expansion of gas production, and its poor human rights record, including the detention of environmental activists. It also criticizes the European Union for increasing gas imports from Azerbaijan, which the author claims bolsters the regime's power. Finally, the document calls for the UN to reform the COP host selection process by introducing mandatory climate action and human rights requirements.

The report finds that in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region, fossil fuel capacity under construction is more than three times that of wind and utility-scale solar. While non-fossil projects (including hydropower and nuclear) have a larger total pipeline, they suffer from long lead times and lower construction rates. Most CCA countries are failing to meet their renewable energy targets, with a 13 GW deficit in development across six countries. COP29 host Azerbaijan is highlighted for having a limited pipeline of renewables beyond 2027, calling into question its climate leadership.

The November 2024 update reveals a three-year stagnation in global warming projections, with current policies setting the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming by 2100. While renewable energy and electric vehicle deployment have seen record growth, these gains are offset by all-time high fossil fuel subsidies and increased funding for fossil fuel projects. The report warns that without a substantial increase in the ambition of 2030 and 2035 targets, the 1.5°C limit will likely be breached in the early 2030s, leading to a multidecadal overshoot.

The BRICS bloc is reaching a milestone where non-fossil power capacity is set to exceed fossil-fueled capacity for the first time in 2024. While the group hosts a significant portion of the world's coal fleet and continues to develop new fossil plants, there is a massive pipeline of wind and solar projects. The report finds that the BRICS countries have enough renewables in development to nearly triple their capacity by 2030, though the actual construction rate varies significantly by member, with China leading the transition.

The document examines the evolution of BRICS from a financial acronym to an intergovernmental group, focusing on its annual declarations. It finds that while BRICS successfully used the G20 to push for reforms in the IMF and World Bank following the 2007-8 financial crisis, there remains a significant gap between its high-level declarative statements and actual collective policy implementation.

The paper examines the evolution of BRICS from a financial acronym to an intergovernmental configuration, focusing on its first ten annual declarations. It argues that while BRICS successfully projects a vision of representing the 'majority world' and achieved early wins in reforming global financial institutions via the G20, there remains a significant lack of clarity regarding collective policy coordination and the actual implementation of its broader declarative statements.

The 2024 BRICS Summit is expected to focus on integrating new members and defining the role of 'partner countries' rather than further expansion. Key economic goals include increasing trade in local currencies to reduce dollar reliance and streamlining payments via the BRICS Cross-Border Payments Initiative. The document highlights opportunities for coordination between BRICS, the G20, and the G7, particularly with Brazil and South Africa holding leadership roles in 2025. On climate, BRICS is expected to reaffirm support for the Paris Agreement and a just transition that allows for the continued use of fossil fuels for energy security, while potentially introducing a new framework for sustainable development and carbon market projects.

The DRC and Zambia are attempting to transition from extractive economies to value-added battery producers to support the global green transition. While they possess critical reserves of cobalt and copper, their efforts are complicated by a history of privatization, problematic governance, and a geopolitical tug-of-war between the USA and China. To succeed, both nations must expand local processing capacity and improve infrastructure, such as the Lobito Corridor, while managing the social and environmental impacts of mining.

The document examines the potential for BRICS nations to integrate economically and form a common currency to reduce reliance on the US dollar. It applies Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory to the bloc, noting that while the New Development Bank (NDB) and Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) demonstrate a commitment to cooperation, significant economic heterogeneity in GDP growth, inflation, and fiscal policy remains a major hurdle. The analysis suggests that while traditional OCA criteria are not fully met, the 'new' OCA theory—which emphasises political commitment and endogenous policy harmonisation—provides a more plausible path toward a multipolar financial order.

The BRICS group is approaching a critical transition point where non-fossil power capacity is expected to eclipse fossil fuels by the end of 2024. While the bloc possesses a vast pipeline of wind and solar projects—enough to potentially triple renewable capacity by 2030—nearly all members continue to develop new coal, oil, or gas plants. China dominates the group's transition, leading in both renewable additions and the construction of new coal capacity. Other members show divergent paths: Brazil and Ethiopia are heavily hydropower-reliant, while the UAE, Iran, and Russia remain deeply dependent on oil and gas, though the UAE is rapidly diversifying via nuclear and solar power.

Since 2023, Chinese firms have committed over US$100 billion in outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) across at least 130 major cleantech transactions, spanning solar, wind, batteries, and new energy vehicles (NEVs). This 'going global' strategy is driven by domestic overcapacity, which has caused solar module prices to drop 60% and battery prices 50% year-on-year, and a need to circumvent trade barriers from the US and EU. The report highlights China's dominance in the global battery supply chain, where it holds over 80% of manufacturing capacity, and its expansion into markets like Morocco, Brazil, and Thailand. For Australia, the report notes that Chinese OFDI reached a multi-decade low of US$613 million in 2023, and argues that Australia should clarify its foreign investment rules to attract Chinese private capital for onshore value-adding in critical minerals and renewable energy infrastructure.

The document details a conference focused on the marginalization of Africa within the global economic system, specifically regarding the legacy of structural adjustment and the current lack of representative governance in international financial institutions. It identifies critical barriers to African development, including inflated risk premiums that cost the continent over $74 billion annually and the failure of the Global North to deliver over $1 trillion in promised climate financing. The report proposes a tiered reform agenda: short-term priorities include debt cancellation and increased access to Special Drawing Rights; medium-term goals focus on improving credit ratings through better data and combating illicit financial flows; and long-term goals aim for greater representation in the IMF and World Bank. Additionally, it explores the potential for Africa to leverage its natural capital and critical minerals for the energy transition, while cautioning against new dependencies on China as the world shifts toward a multipolar order.

The world is on track to install 593 GW of solar power in 2024, a 29% increase over 2023. China remains the dominant market, projected to account for 56% of global additions. Growth is widespread, with significant surges in India and the US, and emerging markets like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia showing rapid increases in solar panel imports. This trajectory puts the goal of tripling renewable power capacity by 2030 within reach, provided grid and storage constraints are addressed.

The author contends that the rise of far-right parties, such as Germany's AfD, is partly a reaction to climate policies that lack social equity. To combat this, the text advocates for a 'post-growth' framework and the implementation of community-led energy solutions that prioritize human well-being over profit. It calls for developed nations to accelerate emission cuts and for the EU to shift fossil fuel subsidies toward carbon-free heating to ensure a just transition.

The document examines the diplomatic, military, and economic ties between Egypt and Russia over the last decade, highlighting a shared preference for authoritarian stability and a mutual desire to balance Western influence. While cooperation has expanded in arms procurement and nuclear energy, the author contends the relationship remains transactional and flexible, as Egypt employs a strategy of diplomatic hedging to maintain ties with both Moscow and the West.

The document examines the push by BRICS nations to reform the international monetary system and reduce reliance on the US dollar, particularly in the wake of financial sanctions against Russia and Iran. It analyzes the 'BRICS Pay' platform and China's specific local currency initiatives, such as the 'Hunan Model' of barter trade with Africa. The paper also evaluates the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) as Africa's own mechanism for facilitating intra-continental trade in local currencies, noting that while it could save Africa $5 billion annually, it faces hurdles including informal cash trade and a lack of institutional trust. The author concludes that while these reforms offer a way to circumvent foreign exchange shortages, African policymakers must ensure that the US dollar is not simply replaced by other external currencies like the Chinese renminbi.

The author contends that the multiplicity of mediation processes for the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has enabled 'forum-shopping' by the antagonists. Despite various efforts by the UN, AU, and regional bodies, the lack of coordination undermines mediator leverage. The document highlights a dire humanitarian situation with 25 million people facing acute hunger and recommends that the African Union integrate these fragmented initiatives into a single, coordinated process with a clear division of labour.