AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY

The report finds that in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region, fossil fuel capacity under construction is more than three times that of wind and utility-scale solar. While non-fossil projects (including hydropower and nuclear) have a larger total pipeline, they suffer from long lead times and lower construction rates. Most CCA countries are failing to meet their renewable energy targets, with a 13 GW deficit in development across six countries. COP29 host Azerbaijan is highlighted for having a limited pipeline of renewables beyond 2027, calling into question its climate leadership.

• There is a significant gap between renewable energy targets and actual projects in development across the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region. Six countries have targets for 2030–2040 totaling 43 GW, but only 30 GW of renewable capacity is currently in development, leaving a 13 GW deficit.
• Fossil fuel capacity is being built at a much faster rate than wind and utility-scale solar in the CCA region. Capacity under construction for wind and utility-scale solar totals 3.5 GW, which is less than one-third of the capacity being built for coal, oil, or gas.
• All eight CCA countries are developing additional fossil-fueled power capacity. Oil and gas lead this buildout with 24 GW in development, half of which is already under construction. Coal expansion is slower, with only 195 MW under construction in Kazakhstan, though nearly 8 GW is in development across four countries.
• Azerbaijan, the host of COP29, has a limited pipeline of renewable energy projects. No wind or utility-scale solar projects are in development beyond those due for completion by 2027, which only provides enough capacity to meet its 30% renewable share target by 2030 (approximately a 2 GW addition).
• Non-fossil power projects (wind, solar, nuclear, and hydropower) have a larger total pipeline than fossil projects, totaling 48.3 GW compared to 31.9 GW. However, they are being built more slowly, with only 17% in the construction phase compared to 34% for fossil projects.
• Large hydropower and nuclear projects in the region face long lead times that limit their contribution before 2030. For example, the Rogun plant in Tajikistan and the Kambarata-1 plant in Kyrgyzstan are major projects, but full commissioning for Rogun is not expected until 2033 and Kambarata-1 is estimated to be nine years away from 2025.
• The CCA region's existing power infrastructure is aging and inefficient. The average age of coal, gas, and hydropower plants is 40 years, which is double the global average, leading to equipment failures and supply interruptions.
• Foreign investment from the Middle East and China dominates the development of wind and utility-scale solar in the CCA region. Specifically, firms from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and China account for 80% of the wind and utility-scale solar capacity in development.

APA

Norman, J., Babajeva, J., Sidorovskaya-Fretz, N., & Kozybay, Z. (2024). AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-COP29-Caucasus-CentralAsia_23.pdf

Chicago

Norman, James, Jelena Babajeva, Natalia Sidorovskaya-Fretz, and Zhanaiym Kozybay. AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY. Global Energy Monitor, 2024. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-COP29-Caucasus-CentralAsia_23.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Norman |first1=James |last2=Babajeva |first2=Jelena |last3=Sidorovskaya-Fretz |first3=Natalia |last4=Kozybay |first4=Zhanaiym |title=AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=November 2024 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-COP29-Caucasus-CentralAsia_23.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{norman2024azerbaijan, author = {Norman, James and Babajeva, Jelena and Sidorovskaya-Fretz, Natalia and Kozybay, Zhanaiym}, title = {{AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-COP29-Caucasus-CentralAsia_23.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }