AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY

This report by Global Energy Monitor analyzes the power sector transition in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region, highlighting a significant gap between stated renewable energy targets and actual project pipelines. It finds that fossil fuel capacity is being built at more than three times the rate of wind and utility-scale solar, with oil and gas leading the buildout. The report specifically critiques COP29 host Azerbaijan for low ambition in its renewable energy plans and a continued reliance on gas.

• There is a significant deficit between the renewable energy targets of six Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries and the actual capacity in development. While these countries have targets for 2030–2040 totaling 43 GW of renewable capacity (including wind, solar, and hydropower), only 30 GW is currently in development, leaving a 13 GW deficit.
• Fossil fuel capacity is being expanded at a much faster rate than wind and utility-scale solar in the CCA region. Capacity under construction for wind and utility-scale solar totals 3.5 GW, which is less than one-third of the capacity under construction for projects fueled by coal, oil, or gas.
• All eight countries in the CCA region are developing additional capacity for coal, oil, or gas. Oil and gas lead this expansion with 24 GW in development, half of which is already under construction. Coal expansion is slower, with only two small units under construction in Kazakhstan to replace retiring units, though nearly 8 GW of coal capacity remains in development across four countries.
• Azerbaijan, the host of COP29, has a project pipeline that suggests limited ambition. Current wind and solar projects in development are only expected to be completed by 2027, which may be sufficient to meet its 30% renewable share target by 2030 (approximately a 2 GW addition), but there are no further projects in the pipeline beyond that date.
• The CCA region's existing power infrastructure is aging and inefficient. The average age of coal, gas, and hydropower plants is 40 years, which is double the global average. This has led to equipment failures, supply interruptions, and network losses.
• Non-fossil capacity in development (wind, solar, nuclear, and hydropower) totals 48.3 GW, which is 50% greater than the 31.9 GW for coal, oil, and gas. However, these projects are being built much slower; only 17% of non-fossil projects are in the construction phase, compared to 34% for fossil fuel projects.
• Large-scale hydropower and nuclear projects in the region have long lead times that limit their contribution before 2030. For example, the Rogun plant in Tajikistan and the Kambarata-1 plant in Kyrgyzstan are major projects, but full commissioning for Rogun is not expected until 2033, and Kambarata-1 construction will not start until 2025.
• Ownership of new wind and solar capacity in the CCA region is heavily concentrated among foreign firms. Approximately 80% of wind and utility-scale solar capacity in development is owned or implemented by companies from the Middle East (such as ACWA Power and Masdar) or China.

APA

Norman, J., Babajeva, J., Sidorovskaya-Fretz, N., & Kozybay, Z. (2024). AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-COP29-Caucasus-CentralAsia_23.pdf

Chicago

Norman, James, Jelena Babajeva, Natalia Sidorovskaya-Fretz, and Zhanaiym Kozybay. AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY. Global Energy Monitor, 2024. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-COP29-Caucasus-CentralAsia_23.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Norman |first1=James |last2=Babajeva |first2=Jelena |last3=Sidorovskaya-Fretz |first3=Natalia |last4=Kozybay |first4=Zhanaiym |title=AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=November 2024 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-COP29-Caucasus-CentralAsia_23.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{norman2024azerbaijan, author = {Norman, James and Babajeva, Jelena and Sidorovskaya-Fretz, Natalia and Kozybay, Zhanaiym}, title = {{AZERBAIJAN, THE CAUCASUS, AND CENTRAL ASIA BUILDING THREE TIMES AS MUCH FOSSIL AS WIND AND UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-COP29-Caucasus-CentralAsia_23.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }