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Political Monopoly
The briefing argues that contemporary national populists in Europe employ a systematic strategy to capture the state by eroding liberal norms, dominating the information space, and subordinating the judiciary and civil service. By treating the government as a 'contractor' for a national majority, these movements justify the removal of institutional restraints to concentrate power in the executive. The author details a multi-stage assault involving 'trolling', 'building' parallel infrastructures, and 'automating' disinformation to create a facade of democracy while maintaining an effective monopoly on power.
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Document type: Briefing
Covid 19 & Ghana's Health Infrastructure
As of June 23, 2020, Ghana recorded 14,568 Covid-19 cases and 95 deaths, leading to severe pressure on health infrastructure and the economy. The government responded by implementing partial lockdowns in Accra, Kumasi, and Kasoa, and later announced an ambitious plan to build 88 hospitals in districts currently lacking them. Financial measures included a $100m initial commitment, GHS 600m for SMEs, and utility bill relief. The pandemic disrupted the informal sector, affected road development priorities, and complicated the 2020 general election preparations, specifically the compilation of a new voters' register.
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Document type: Report
Israel and COVID-19
As of June 10, 2020, Israel reported 299 deaths and 18,268 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The state leveraged its advanced technology and healthcare sectors to manage the outbreak, though it faced criticism for employing counter-terrorism surveillance tools and intelligence services to track infections and procure medical equipment. The pandemic occurred during a severe political crisis, leading to the formation of a unity government. The response also highlighted disparities affecting Israeli Arabs, ultra-orthodox communities, and Palestinians in the Occupied Territories.
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Document type: Policy brief
MIGNEX Handbook
The MIGNEX Handbook Chapter 7 outlines the methodology for a large-scale survey of 12,500 young adults (aged 18-39) across 25 research areas in ten countries. It details a three-stage probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) cluster sampling strategy using satellite imagery and random walks to ensure representativeness. The guide specifies the use of Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) via SurveyCTO software to improve data quality and efficiency. It establishes rigorous protocols for research ethics, including oral informed consent, and defines a multi-layered quality assurance framework involving enumerators, fieldwork supervisors, and data managers. The document also provides a detailed survey instrument covering themes such as migration aspirations, livelihoods, health, and governance.
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Document type: Guide
Five things we learned about development finance while building Aid Atlas
The document highlights significant gaps in development finance, noting that general environment protection receives only 2% of total disbursements. It examines how the European refugee crisis impacted donor budgets, the difficulty of tracking finance for specific agendas like sustainable oceans, and the lack of data disaggregation by some donors. Additionally, it identifies a notably lower disbursement ratio for climate finance compared to general development aid, suggesting systemic implementation challenges.
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Document type: Policy brief
Timing Matters: The Impact of Regularity of Election Cycles on Autocratic Stability
The research analyzes 259 autocratic regimes from 1946 to 2008 to determine if the predictability of election dates influences regime durability. The author posits that regular election cycles create focal points for dissident collective action and prevent incumbents from 'surfing' favorable political or economic conditions. Statistical analysis indicates that regimes with more regular electoral cycles have a significantly higher probability of failure. The study suggests that manipulating the electoral calendar—through snap elections or delays—serves as a survival strategy to stymie challengers and optimize the use of state violence.
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Document type: Research paper
Iran and COVID-19: Timing Matters
Iran was the hardest-hit country in the MENA region due to a delayed lockdown and early reopening, driven by a lack of financial capacity to provide income support. US sanctions and falling oil prices limited the state's stimulus package to 0.2% of GDP, while the regime used security forces to control information and suppress protests. Despite a developed healthcare system, the pandemic caused private hospital bankruptcies and a shortage of medical staff.
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Document type: Policy brief
Nuclear Energy Developments, Climate Change and Security in Turkey
Turkey is pursuing a civilian nuclear energy program to diversify its energy sources and meet rapidly growing electricity demand, primarily through the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant developed with Russia under a 'build-own-operate' (BOO) model. While Turkey adheres to international nonproliferation regimes and collaborates with the IAEA, the BOO model creates risks regarding regulatory oversight, information asymmetry, and potential safety compromises to reduce costs. Additionally, Turkey faces significant climate security threats, including drought and sea-level rise, which may impact the operation of its coastal nuclear sites. The program also reflects Turkey's complex strategic balancing between Russia and NATO allies.
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Document type: Briefing
Taastuvenergia strateegilised kaalutlused
The author examines the EU's transition to renewable energy as a geopolitical shift that offers benefits like reduced import dependence and increased 'soft power', but introduces risks such as industrial rivalry with China and the US, and internal disparities between Western and Eastern Europe. The text argues that the EU currently lacks a clear technical vision for its future integrated energy system, which could lead to inefficient investments and vulnerability to external 'divide and conquer' tactics. It suggests that the EU must combine energy goals with industrial policy and infrastructure standards to maintain global competitiveness, while utilizing mechanisms like the Just Transition Fund to mitigate internal socio-economic frictions.
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Document type: Research paper
Turkey and COVID-19: Balancing Health and Economic Priorities
Turkey's response to COVID-19 combined travel restrictions, selective lockdowns, and high testing capacity, supported by a young population and a developed healthcare system. However, the document notes that official statistics may be unreliable due to limited freedom of expression and government control over information. Vulnerable groups, including migrants and the Kurdish population in the southeast, faced specific challenges regarding healthcare access and information dissemination. Economically, the government implemented a USD 15.4 billion stimulus package to mitigate the pandemic's impact and stabilize the economy.
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Document type: Policy brief
Distributional impacts of mining transitions: learning from the past
The paper analyses the socio-economic effects of mine closures on women and youth, highlighting how traditional gender roles and lack of skills create vulnerabilities. It argues that past policy responses, such as retraining and job placement, often failed to address these inequities, and recommends more inclusive, multi-stakeholder planning for future low-carbon transitions.
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Document type: Research paper
The state isn’t pulling its weight!
SAFTU criticizes the South African state's COVID-19 response as 'tokenistic,' arguing that the R12 billion stimulus (0.23% of GDP) is inadequate compared to global responses. The statement calls for emergency taxation of the rich, a Basic Income Grant, and the appropriation of private facilities for public use. It warns that a security-focused lockdown without adequate income security for informal and unemployed workers could lead to political catastrophe.
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Document type: Statement
States’ Human Rights Obligations in the Context of Climate Change
The report synthesizes the work of UN human rights treaty bodies (HRTBs), including the CEDAW, CESCR, and CRC, on climate change. It details how these bodies use state reporting, communications procedures, and general comments to hold States accountable for human rights violations caused by climate change and insufficient mitigation efforts. Key findings emphasize the need for highest-ambition emissions cuts, the phasing out of fossil fuels, and the protection of vulnerable groups, including women, children, and Indigenous Peoples.
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Document type: Report
繁荣与衰落
The report finds that while global coal capacity grew by 34.1 GW in 2019, this was primarily driven by China, as capacity in the rest of the world continued to shrink. Global coal plant utilization hit a record low of 51% in 2019. The report highlights a shift in financing, with Western commercial banks largely exiting project finance for coal, while Japanese and Chinese public finance continue to support new developments. Significant retirements occurred in the US and EU, though some OECD nations like Japan and South Korea continue to develop new capacity.
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Document type: Report
Boom and Bust 2020
The report finds that while the global coal fleet grew by 34.1 GW in 2019, this was primarily driven by China, as the fleet outside China shrank for the second consecutive year. Most leading indicators of growth, including construction starts and pre-permit development, continued to decline globally. The report highlights a shift in financing, with Western commercial banks exiting project finance for coal, while Chinese public finance and Indian state-backed institutions continue to support new capacity. Despite these trends, the report argues that coal power use must fall by 80% by 2030 to align with the 1.5C warming limit of the Paris climate agreement.
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Document type: Report
Boom & Bust 2020
The report finds that while global coal capacity grew by 34.1 GW in 2019, this was primarily driven by China, where 68.3 GW of new capacity began operating. Outside China, the global coal fleet shrank for the second consecutive year. Pre-construction pipelines are declining globally, with significant drops in India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In OECD countries, capacity has declined since 2011, though Japan remains a major driver of new coal power. Financing is becoming more restrictive, with no direct project finance from major US, European, or Australian banks for 2019 constructions, although public financing from China and India continues to support new projects.
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Document type: Report
Yükseliş ve Çöküş 2020: KÜRESEL KÖMÜRLÜ TERMİK SANTRAL TAKİBİ
The report finds that while the global coal fleet grew by 34.1 GW in 2019, this was primarily driven by China, as the rest of the world saw a net decrease in capacity. It highlights a continuing decline in new project starts and a significant increase in retirements in the US and EU, though it warns that current trends are insufficient to meet the IPCC's 1.5°C goal, which requires an 80% reduction in coal-fired power by 2030.
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Document type: Report
BÙNG NỔ VÀ THOÁI TRÀO 2020: GIÁM SÁT CÁC NHÀ MÁY ĐIỆN THAN TOÀN CẦU
The report finds that while global coal capacity saw a net increase of 34.1 GW in 2019, this was driven almost entirely by China. Excluding China, the global coal industry declined for the second consecutive year. The report highlights a significant shift in financing, with Western commercial banks withdrawing direct funding for new coal, while Chinese and Indian state-backed institutions continue to provide critical capital. Regional analysis shows sharp declines in pre-construction capacity in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, though some countries like Japan and Turkey continue to pursue coal development despite international pressure.
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Document type: Report
The Path of Least Resistance
The report identifies a trend of 'carbon leakage' where EU countries import electricity from non-EU 'offshore carbon havens'—specifically Turkey, Ukraine, Morocco, and the Western Balkans—that lack carbon pricing. Net imports into EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) countries rose from 3TWh in 2017 to 21TWh in 2019, with imported electricity emitting an estimated 26 million tonnes of CO2 in 2019. The document warns that up to 57GW of new coal power could be developed in connected or soon-to-be connected non-EU countries, potentially undermining EU emissions cuts. To address this, the authors propose a border carbon adjustment (BCA) for electricity imports to level the playing field for generators, protect low-carbon investments, and incentivise neighbouring states to adopt their own carbon pricing mechanisms.
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Document type: Report
The path of least resistance
The report finds that the EU ETS region is increasingly importing electricity from non-EU neighbors with high carbon intensities, effectively importing emissions and creating 'offshore carbon havens'. In 2019, the EU ETS region imported 26 million tonnes of CO2, with a net import of 20 million tonnes. The authors argue that the disparity in carbon pricing gives a competitive advantage to high-carbon generators in countries like Turkey, Ukraine, and the Western Balkans. To combat this, the report recommends a border carbon adjustment (BCA) on gross electricity imports to protect the integrity of EU climate policy and incentivize decarbonization in neighboring states. It also warns that planned increases in interconnection capacity (31% by 2030) and new coal power projects (up to 57GW) in connected non-EU countries will exacerbate the problem.
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Document type: Report