The Path of Least Resistance

The report identifies a trend of 'carbon leakage' where EU countries import electricity from non-EU 'offshore carbon havens'—specifically Turkey, Ukraine, Morocco, and the Western Balkans—that lack carbon pricing. Net imports into EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) countries rose from 3TWh in 2017 to 21TWh in 2019, with imported electricity emitting an estimated 26 million tonnes of CO2 in 2019. The document warns that up to 57GW of new coal power could be developed in connected or soon-to-be connected non-EU countries, potentially undermining EU emissions cuts. To address this, the authors propose a border carbon adjustment (BCA) for electricity imports to level the playing field for generators, protect low-carbon investments, and incentivise neighbouring states to adopt their own carbon pricing mechanisms.

• EU countries are increasingly importing electricity from non-EU countries with zero or near-zero carbon pricing, leading to carbon leakage. Net imports into EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) countries increased from 3TWh in 2017 to 21TWh in 2019.
• Imported electricity is more carbon intensive than EU generation, emitting an estimated 26 million tonnes of CO2 in 2019. This volume of emissions exceeds the annual emissions of Italy's coal fleet, which is the 6th largest in the EU.
• There is a significant risk of future carbon leakage, with up to 57GW of new coal power potentially coming online in countries connected or soon-to-be connected to the EU. Plans aim to increase interconnection between EU and non-EU states by 31% by 2030, adding 5 more countries without carbon taxes to EU grids.
• The report proposes a border carbon adjustment (BCA) for electricity entering the EU ETS region to prevent the offshoring of emissions and incentivise neighbouring countries to implement their own carbon pricing. Such a mechanism would have generated €630m in revenue for EU member states in 2019 if applied to imports.

APA

Ember (2020). The Path of Least Resistance. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-path-of-least-resistance

Chicago

Ember. The Path of Least Resistance. 2020. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-path-of-least-resistance.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=The Path of Least Resistance |date=29 January 2020 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-path-of-least-resistance |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2020path, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{The Path of Least Resistance}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2020}, month = jan, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-path-of-least-resistance}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }