The Path of Least Resistance

This report by Ember investigates the phenomenon of 'carbon leakage' where EU countries import electricity from non-EU countries that lack carbon pricing, effectively offshoring emissions to 'offshore carbon havens' like Turkey and Ukraine. The authors argue for the implementation of a Border Carbon Adjustment (BCA) on electricity imports to protect the integrity of EU climate policy and incentivize carbon pricing in neighboring states.

• Net electricity imports into EU Emissions Trading System countries increased significantly from 3TWh in 2017 to 21TWh in 2019. These imports originate from countries with zero or near-zero carbon pricing and are more carbon intensive on average than generation within the EU.
• Imported electricity is estimated to have emitted 26 million tonnes of CO2 in 2019, a volume exceeding the annual emissions of Italy's coal fleet, which is the 6th largest in the EU. If these imports had been subject to the EU ETS carbon price in 2019, they would have generated €630m in revenue for EU member states.
• There is a risk of further carbon leakage as up to 57GW of new coal power could be commissioned in countries connected or soon-to-be connected to the EU. Plans to increase interconnection between EU and non-EU states by 31% by 2030 would connect five additional countries that do not have a carbon tax.
• EU member states such as Greece, Spain, and Croatia are particularly exposed to carbon-intensive imports despite having their own coal phase-out legislation or renewable targets. The report suggests that without a Border Carbon Adjustment (BCA), emissions may be 'offshored' rather than reduced.
• The report proposes a Border Carbon Adjustment (BCA) for electricity entering the EU ETS region until trading partners implement their own equivalent carbon price. A BCA is described as easier to implement than for products like steel or cement because electricity flows are transparent and the production chain is simple.

APA

Ember (2020). The Path of Least Resistance. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-path-of-least-resistance

Chicago

Ember. The Path of Least Resistance. 2020. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-path-of-least-resistance.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=The Path of Least Resistance |date=29 January 2020 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-path-of-least-resistance |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2020path, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{The Path of Least Resistance}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2020}, month = jan, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-path-of-least-resistance}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }